Before the season, I broke up the Bears schedule into three distinct segments:
- Segment One: Weeks 1-6, leading into the bye.
- Segment Two: Weeks 8-10
- Segment Three: Weeks 11-18, wherein six of their final eight games are against division opponents.
Segment one was a success. Could the Bears have beaten both the Texans and the Colts? Absolutely. But they also could have lost to the Titans and Rams. 4-2 is a fair representation of the performance we’ve seen from this team over the first six weeks of the season, and 4-2 gives the Bears an opportunity to be playing knockout football in January.
The next evaluative moment in this season will come at the end of Sunday, November 10th. (For those of you not on Twitter, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, Sweet Smell of Success, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY that morning.) After these next three games, the Bears will have played (essentially) half their schedule, nine games, and will be able to establish clear win/loss goals for the second and far more difficult half of their schedule.
So, how do these matchups look?
Sunday 10/27 – @ Washington Commanders
General feeling: Toss-up.
The Commanders have been one of the real surprises of the 2024 season, mostly due to their rookie quarterback’s inspiring play. (The Bears fans on Twitter that seem to resent the success of Jayden Daniels need to grow up.) But Washington still doesn’t play much defense and, with two weeks to prepare, the Bears should be expected to (at worst) make this a shootout.
[Side note: I will be in attendance for this game, which essentially guarantees something abnormal will take place.]
Sunday 11/3 (NYC Marathon Sunday!) – @ Arizona Cardinals
General feeling: Lean Bears.
Arizona is a feisty team, but they are awful defensively, and that building in the desert will be at least half transplants from Chicago.
Sunday 11/10 – home New England Patriots
General feeling: Likely Bears.
The Bears are 4-0 at home this season, including a home game in London. If you are a serious team, the Patriots don’t come into your building with a rookie quarterback and win.
If the Bears can win two of these three games, they can enter the more difficult stretch of their season at 6-3. That would mean they’d only need to go .500 over the final eight games to achieve double digit wins, and almost certainly a spot in the postseason. These three games are pivotal to maintain momentum and build upon the enthusiasm established in this opening six-game stretch.
If they win all three? Look out.
