Why do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
The Injury Bummer
If Jayden Daniels doesn’t play Sunday, and the oddsmakers seem to believe he won’t, it is a massive bummer for the entirety of the NFL. The Washington Commanders (nee Redskins) and Chicago Bears are two of the proudest franchises in the sport, and the league is better when both are winning. Roger Goodell and the boys were going to use this game to promote and celebrate two players – Daniels and Caleb Williams – they expect to be the face of the league for the next decade. And there was a strong chance Bears at Commanders, kicking off at 4:25 PM ET, would be the highest rated day game all season.
Now, who knows? The game is still important. The rating will still be solid. But if Daniels doesn’t play, it loses half of its luster, half of its star power. And personally, I was excited to see both of them in-person, on the same field, and paid a hefty price for that honor. Marcus Mariota’s name on the marquee doesn’t create lines at the box office.
Three Thoughts on the Commanders
- What has been sneaky about the Commander resurgence is not the offense; that has been well covered in the national media. But the Commanders are 15th in points allowed per game, and 16th in yards allowed per game. That might not seem impressive, but this was arguably the worst defense in the league in 2023. Advancing to the middle of the pack is a huge leap in one season, and a testament to the coaching work of Dan Quinn. This is not a good defense. But it’s not a bad one, either.
- If Daniels does not play Sunday, expect the Commanders to rely heavily on the underrated Brian Robinson. Robinson is rushing to 4.7 YPC, and has 6 touchdowns, but has only been given 20+ carries once this season. That’s likely to change Sunday.
- Where has Washington been far better than Chicago? Offensively, on third down. The Commanders convert at a rate of 48.8%, ranking them third in the league. The Bears are much further down the table, converting 35.4% of their opportunities. Could be a game-within-the-game to pay attention to on Sunday.
Lumet VII: Lumet and the Police
Football is taking center stage so I will bypass Lumet VI, which was to focus on his collaborations with Sean Connery and general work abroad. Four films should not be ignored, however, in this regard. The Hill (1965) is a brilliant moral tale, reflective of Lumet’s own conflicted time in the service. The Anderson Tapes (1971) is Lumet’s minor-yet-noteworthy entry into the paranoia cinema of the 1970s. The Offence (1973) is a complicated revelation, especially for Ian Bannen’s brilliant turn as the potential killer. And Murder on the Orient Express (1974) is a cinematic tour de force, another breathtaking example of Lumet’s genius for shooting in the confined space.
Today’s ACTUAL module is focused on Lumet’s favorite institutional target: the police. Many great filmmakers have admitted a distrust of cops, Alfred Hitchcock went so far as to say he was afraid of them since boyhood. But I don’t know exactly how one can teach this unit. So, I’ll simply post links to reviews I think are worth considering, and the brilliant Lumet-focused trailer for Night Falls on Manhattan.
One thing to note: while Lumet disrupts the institution of the police, he also believes in the potential heroism of the individuals who enter that line of work and its clear in these four films.
Serpico (1973)
HERE IS A LINK to a review by Pauline Kael, not normally a Sidney Lumet fan. (This is a long and winding tale.)
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Prince of the City (1981)
Here is my brilliant pal Janet Maslin’s fair review of a film I don’t love: LUMET’S ‘PRINCE OF THE CITY’ – The New York Times
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Q&A (1990)
Roger Ebert’s thoughtful and insightful review: Q & A movie review & film summary (1990) | Roger Ebert
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Night Falls on Manhattan (1996)
Ebert’s review: Night Falls On Manhattan movie review (1997) | Roger Ebert
Around the League Bet(s)
After an awful start with these bets, I had a very nice bye week. I don’t see any lines that look out of whack, so I’ll just make two picks I like.
DETROIT -10.5 over Tennessee. The Titans are underrated defensively, but they just got their doors blown off by Josh Allen’s taped together offense. The Lions are a machine. They win big.
Green Bay at JACKSONVILLE (Under 51). How many points do the Jags need to score for this number to hit? 20? Against the Packers defense, I don’t see it.
Bears Under Pressure
(3) TJ Edwards. Stopping the run is paramount, especially against a backup quarterback. This should be a double-digit tackle performance from Edwards.
(2) Montez Sweat. Sweat is currently T56 in sacks, with 2.5. Is that good enough for a player paid as an elite edge rusher? Sweat has been good this season, better than those numbers suggest, but I’m not in the “sacks are overrated” camp. Sacks mean quarterbacks planted into the ground. Sacks make quarterbacks tentative and cause them to make mistakes. Sweat needs to increase that total.
(1) Matt Eberflus. This is the most difficult scheming assignment for the Bears on defense this season. If the Bears start slow, as they are prone to do, they could be looking at lopsided early scoreboard.
Tomorrow: Prediction!
