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Week Five Game Preview, Volume II: Justin Fields Game Poem, Vegas in Movies, Prediction!

| October 8th, 2021


Why Do Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And, well, just skip to the next section.


The Justin Fields Game Poem: “Less Than Broken”

Broken,

tired like an old joke, told by a retired cop on an early morning barstool.

A phrase, maybe, then a cough.

The promise of a punchline, then a sip, or two, and a drag from the cigarette that shouldn’t be smoked.

You sit through it because you’re there and that’s what you do.

You might even smile,

that distanced, third person smile.

The absurdity of it all.

__________

Then the delivery changes,

and suddenly the joke seems less than broken,

dispatched with a zeal uncommon to those smoke-filled mornings.

There is conviction in the telling,

connection with the words,

timing in the delivery.

There is hope in the joke now.

Hope.


Vegas, in Movies.

I have never been to Las Vegas. And I will – in all likelihood – never go to Las Vegas. Nothing about it appeals to me. If I want gambling and loud slot machines, I’ll drive to Atlantic City. (And I’ll be celebrating my 40th birthday there in January.) If I want a debauched weekend with “the boys”, I’ll go to New Orleans. (And there’s a casino there too if you need it.) Even tee times at the best golf course in town, Shadow Creek, come with the caveat that you can be bumped any point if a whale wants your time. I mean, seriously, fuck you.

If Rickles and Sinatra were performing there, sure, I’d take the trip. But to go hang out on a cruise ship in the desert with Jay Leno and hookers? Pass.

Here are six scenes from six great Vegas movies. (Well, five are Vegas movies.)

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Casino (1995)

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Bugsy (1991)

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The Godfather II (1974)

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Swingers (1996)

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Mr. Warmth: The Don Rickles Project (2007)

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Hard Eight (1996)


Stats of the Week

  • When preparing for my first fantasy draft in 18 years, I told the co-owner of my team one thing regarding the Chicago Bears: “If Justin Fields is the quarterback, Darnell Mooney is the WR1.” And it turns out that is absolutely what’s happening. Mooney has more targets, receptions, yards, a higher average, etc. And Fields’ ability to push the ball downfield is just going to see the gap increase. Robinson wants to be paid like a number one receiver. That’s not what he is for a Justin Fields-led Bears.
    • I did, however, draft Robinson and take a late-round shot on Cole Kmet. The latter is no longer on my roster. The former is being benched this week for Cordarrelle Patterson. (You can guess how my return to fantasy is going.)
  • Derek Carr was sacked only 26 times all of 2020. He’s been sacked 12 times already in 2021. (This projects to 51 sacks for the season, which is a number his brother might recognize.) One might argue this is a product of Carr looking downfield more consistently, and that might be the case, but the numbers don’t suggest a huge production difference. Carr averaged 7.9 yards per completion a season ago and is averaging 8.2 this season.
  • The Bears are a significantly better team on the ground. Rushing stats:
    • Bears, 122.8 a game. Raiders, 80.5.
    • Bears, 4.4 per carry. Raiders, 3.3.

Bold Bears Prediction

If you’re talking about running the football – taking the handoff and driving forward – David Montgomery might be the second best back in the game, behind only Derrick Henry. (And Henry is a Hall of Fame player.)

But Damien Williams might be a more dynamic option in the offense because he’s quicker, better in the passing attack, and more versatile pre-snap. Williams can be put out wide and beat a corner on a slant. Montgomery can’t, and doesn’t need to.

Montgomery had 9 targets in the pass game through four games. Williams had 10. He’ll have 16 after Sunday and score a receiving touchdown.


Tweet of the Week


Game Prediction

Tough game to predict but it feels like an uphill climb for this Bears team.

(1) The combination of a weak offensive line and young QB will lead to the Bears falling behind the chains and losing a few drives due to an unnecessary sack or two.

(2) The Bears will get home plenty with their pass rush but when they don’t, they’re cooked. Hard to imagine the Raiders not getting north of 30 points in this game through the air.

(3) Fields will start slow, a bit nervy, but flourish in the second half. Will it be enough? Don’t think so.

Las Vegas Raiders 31, Chicago Bears 27

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