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Week 17: Packers at Bears Game Preview

| December 31st, 2020


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears. And…


Three Things the Bears Must Do To Win

  • Pressure Rodgers. Yes, this seems like an obvious point but it’s even more important with the injuries in the secondary. Rodgers is a master at identifying the weakness in the opposing defense and exploiting it until the score is out of hand. Mike Glennon, with a clean pocket, was able to attack Vildor and Shelley successfully. If Jaylon Johnson doesn’t return, what will Rodgers do to them?
  • Trubisky Plays to His Non-Packers Norm. No, Trubisky is not a great quarterback. But he’s also not the AWFUL player he has been against the Packers.
    • He completes 63.65% of his passes overall. He’s sub-60% against the Packers.
    • His career passer rating is 87.4. It’s 79 – a massive drop – against the Packers.
    • He’s been sacked 110 times overall. 21 of those sacks have come against the Packers. (Detroit got him 13 times, Minnesota 8.)
  • Pound the Ball. 
    • Bucs beat the Packers with 158 yards rushing. Colts beat the Packers with 140 yards rushing. Vikings beat the Packers with 173 yards rushing. Jaguars took the Packers to the wire with 109 yards rushing. The Bears have to know, right now, that anything south of 100 yards rushing won’t get it done against Rodgers and the Packers. This has to be a David Montgomery game.


The Best New Year’s Eve in Movie History


Haiku for Hope

His name is Wolford.

He’s a quarterback, it seems,

And keeper of dreams.


Run, Mitch, Run

His passing numbers are far weaker against the Packers. But Mitch, historically, also refuses to use his legs to beat them. (And historically, the Packers struggle with running quarterbacks.)

2020:

3 carries, 10 yards.

__________

2019:

3 carries, 11 yards

4 carries, 29 yards

__________

2018:

7 carries, 32 yards, 1 touchdown.

3 carries, 16 yards

__________

Most of these are just scrambles once the play has broken down. But Mitch has the ability to keep the Packer linebackers off-balance/pass rush on their heels by putting the Bears ahead of the chains/extending drives with his legs. They are the asset that separates him from the other middle of the road quarterbacks.

If I were coaching Mitch, he’d have a simple rule. When you look down field and don’t see it, go get it. If you’re not certain you can get the ball where it needs to go, get as many yards as you can with your legs. If he did that, he’d limit his turnovers by 25% and keep the Bears offense on the field far longer each week.


Game Prediction

Montgomery’s stat lines.

28 carries, 148 yards, 2 TDs.

4 catches, 41 yards.

Cairo Santos wins it on a late, short field goal.

Chicago Bears 30, Green Bay Packers 27

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