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Week 13: Lions at Bears Game Preview!

| December 4th, 2020


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And the Lions stink.


Best Tweets from Patricia & Quinn’s Former Players

These guys seemed…popular.

What is it going to take for franchises to realize there is no “Patriot Way”. There is Bill Belichick, a certifiable football genius. There was Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback to ever play. That – and an historically bad division around them for two decades – was why they won all those games.

(Also, it is thought that Patricia has been lighting up the Lions via a Twitter burner account in the last few days.)

__________

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Trubisky vs. the Lions For the Final Time?

Wrote the following in the Week One Game Preview:

Mitch Trubisky’s success against the Lions is not a myth. But it is absurd.

In five career games, he has completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,359 yards, 11 TDs and only 4 INTS. That’s a passer rating of 106.3.

In his three starts against them under Matt Nagy, those numbers move to 74.7%, 9/1 TD to INT and a rating of 132.4. And most importantly, three victories.

Let’s take just touchdowns and interceptions for a second. Remove the Lions numbers from Mitch’s totals and he’s at 37 TDs and 25 INTs. That’s…horrendous. It’s quite remarkable how these Lions performances have skewed his poor career statistics slightly more positive.

Trubisky’s week one performance? Crap until the fourth quarter but he ended with 242 yards, 3 TDs, a 104.2 rating and the victory. I mean, seriously, is there any reason to think Trubisky won’t beat the Lions Sunday?


Statistical Comparison

Offense:

Yards: Detroit 20th, Chicago 31st

Passing: Detroit 13th, Chicago 23rd (this is what garbage time does to stats)

Rushing: Detroit 27th, Chicago 32nd

Points: Detroit 22nd, Chicago 29th

Note: We all know what the Bears offense is. That doesn’t require further discussion. But Detroit’s offense has really struggled to stay healthy this season and that’s the primary reason their numbers are suffering. 

Defense:

Yards: Chicago 13th, Detroit 29th

Passing: Chicago 11th, Detroit 26th

Rushing: Chicago 20th, Detroit 28th

Points: Chicago 8th, Detroit 31st

Note: The Bears defense has actually over-performed their statistics, in terms of scoring, primarily because of their success in the red zone. They were expected to be a top-five unit. They have not been that. Detroit’s defense is just bad at every level. 


Turnover Differential: The Forgotten Stat

Years ago I asked the man who I refer to as [REDACTED] on this site what the most important statistic in the NFL is and he didn’t waste a sip of his Guinness. “Turnover differential,” he said. So I took a look at that number this week.

There are currently 16 teams with a positive turnover differential. 13 of those 16 are in the playoffs today. Two more thoughts:

  • The top four – Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Kansas City, New Orleans – are probably the four best teams in the league.
  • The Giants are one of those teams in the playoffs, and they are not good. But they are a +2 turnover differential. Washington is -5. Philadelphia is -10. Dallas is -13. So while the Giants are a bad team, they are miles better than their rivals in this pivotal category.
  • The 14th playoff spot belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. Their turnover differential is -1. So it is still likely that all 14 playoff teams will have a positive turnover differential.

Only three teams are worse than the Chicago Bears in this category. They don’t take it away enough. They give it away far too often.


Bears on the Hot Seat

Matt Nagy. As I wrote yesterday, with wins the next two weeks, Nagy will earn the right to coach out this season. But after publically flogging his defense for quitting – which they clearly did Sunday night – Nagy risks losing the locker room for the first time during his Bears tenure. If the Bears provide another lifeless effort Sunday, knowing their head coach is on the chopping block, it would be hard to see him still employed by the organization come Monday. Nagy needs a 24-10. But that would require scoring 24 points.


The Contractual Disaster Haiku

Fourteen million bucks.

Fourteen million for each sack.

Where is Robert Quinn?


Game Prediction

The debate has begun, led by ESPN Radio’s Marc Silverman. Are the Bears better off winning or losing down the stretch? But that kind of conversation is radio show fodder. Mitch Trubisky is playing for his NFL career. Allen Robinson is playing for a big contract, whether that be in Chicago or elsewhere. Matthew Stafford could be auditioning for every team looking for a quarterback in 2021. Darrell Bevell will be attempting to do in Detroit what Raheem Morris has done in Atlanta: show he’s a real contender to lead this franchise going forward. There may not be a ton at stake for 2020 in this contest. But there is a ton at stake for the contestants.

Chicago Bears 24, Detroit Lions 20

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