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Vikings at Bears Game Preview, Volume II: The Football Stuff (Mostly)

| September 27th, 2019


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And they can’t drop two home division games and expect to win the NFC North.


Trite, Boring Thoughts on the Vikings

  • Dalvin Cook has been the best running back in the sport through three weeks, averaging a staggering 6.6 yards per attempt on 66 carries. Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison have built Minnesota’s offense around the run game and subsequently taken the pressure off Kirk Cousins. They are a team built to play with the lead.
    • But the Bears are allowing 68.7 yards a game on the ground. So something’s gotta give.
  • Cousins has only thrown 63 passes this season. That’s by far the lowest total in the league, 22 fewer than the 31st ranked 49ers. That’s 40 fewer passes than the Bears have attempted this season! When Cousins had to pass – against the Packers – he completed 43.8% of his passes to a rating of 52.9. This is a bad, bad match-up for the Vikings quarterback.
  • A few players who jumped off Vikings tape:
    • Rookie Irv Smith Jr. is working out of the slot and adds a terrific dimension to their receiving corps as a high-percentage throw/catch guy.
    • Eric Wilson was all over the field against the Raiders, registering 11 tackles and 2 sacks. (He started in place of Anthony Barr.) Wilson is one of those defenders the OL must account for at the snap.

Tweet of the Week


Gambling Advice

Survivor

I’m still alive, thanks basically to the existence of the Miami Dolphins. I see two options this week: the Los Angeles Chargers at the aforementioned Dolphins or the Kansas City Chiefs at what I believe is a vastly overrated Detroit Lions team. I’m going with the latter and taking the Chiefs in a rout.

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Straight Bet

If Tampa Bay had a kicker, they’d be 2-1 and quietly one of the more interesting stories in the league. This week they are getting 9.5 points from a Rams team that’s been stuck in neutral offensively. Even if the Rams control this contest, 9.5 is a good back door cover numbers. Bucs +9.5.

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Parlay

Three team, money line parlay. Chargers over Dolphins, Chiefs over Lions, Colts over Raiders. That’s coming in at around +100. A hundred bucks wins ya two.


Match-Up of the Week

Matt Nagy vs. His Desire to Never Run the Ball

The Bears have run the ball 68 times this season. Of the 13 teams who have run the ball fewer times, only one of them has a winning record through three games. (New Orleans has run it four fewer times.)

Nagy needs to run it early against Minnesota. And when the run game fails – and it likely will – he needs to stay committed to it. The Bears have a running back in David Montgomery that can wear out defenders. But that’s not going to happen with 10-12 carries. This is a heavyweight fight. The Bears need to use their best punch.


Game Prediction

A tight, uncomfortable affair. One of the quarterbacks makes the big mistake in the fourth quarter to turn the tide. Cousins. Kyle Fuller. Pick six.

Chicago Bears 20, Minnesota Vikings 16.

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