I miss the Billy Goat every single day I’m not there.
Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?
I always like the Chicago Bears.
Even now, even through this rocky campaign, I still do.
Three Statistical Thoughts
- QB rating is a flawed statistic. A Hail Mary picked off to end the first half is the same negative as an interception thrown on a final drive with the team down 4. Productive incompletions don’t exist. Bubble screens and easy completions are gold. But ultimately the stat persists because it’s become a good, general representation of which quarterbacks are playing well and which quarterbacks are not. (One needs only look at the top 12 in the stat currently to see that there are very few, if any, outliers.)
- Trubisky has 6 games this season with a 70 rating or below. Six.
- Mahomes has one in the last two seasons combined. One. Total.
- Right now there are 11 teams with a turnover differential of +5 or better: Pats, Packers, Seahawks, Vikings, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs, Titans, Bills, Niners. Only one of those teams – the Titans – are not currently in the playoffs. (And they are basically playing playoff games the next two weeks.) It is the most important statistic in the game and it’s a primary reason the Bears aren’t in the postseason this year. Their defense has been good but it hasn’t been able to compensate for the bad offense by turning opponents over and scoring.
- Everyone blames the Bears lack of rushing attack for their struggles on offense, if the goal is not to blame Trubisky. The Chiefs rank 25th in this category and run for only 7 more yards per game than the Bears. Yet they are top five in both total yards and points per game. The reason why is pretty simple.
- And the Chiefs don’t have a particularly good offensive line either. Not a single member of that unit was voted to the Pro Bowl. Nor was a running back. Yet the QB, two receivers and a TE were. Again, not hard to figure out why.
Tweet of the Week
My wife left me home alone with the kids to go out drinking with her friends. A lesser man might whine and complain, but instead I’m just playing Chumbawamba’s 1997 hit “Tubthumping” over and over and over. On the jukebox at their bar. Using the TouchTunes app. pic.twitter.com/jqhbOLdddQ
— Henpecked Hal (@HenpeckedHal) December 17, 2019
Game Prediction
This season has been pretty simple to diagnose. When the Bears get good QB play, they win. And they’re going to need some good QB play to beat the Chiefs. Will they get it?
Chicago Bears 23, Kansas City Chiefs 22
