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Bears & Raiders in London Game Preview, Volume II: The Football Stuff (Mostly)

| October 4th, 2019

The George Inn. My favorite pub in London.


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And they are not losing in London, with Reverend Dave and I in the building, all hopped up on bitter ale.


Trite, Boring Thoughts on the Raiders (Stolen From Data’s Twitter)

Data had a stream of Tweets early in the week but I fear they were lost in the Monday excitement. He is one of the best follows on Bears Twitter and I recommend you give him a follow. Here are his thoughts:

  • Derek Carr has been sacked only 8x in 4 games this year. 4th fastest time to throw of any NFL QB, 4th shortest average throw. This feels like a game where the Bears need Roquan Smith, not Nick Kwiatkoski. Gonna be a lot of underneath stuff in coverage.
  • In the running game, Oakland runs inside a little more than outside, so in that regard Kwit would fit right in plugging the interior run. When they do run outside, the Raiders heavily favor the right by a 2:1 ratio.
  • 2 of Oakland’s 3 most targeted players have among the 15 shortest average target distances among all NFL WRs and TEs. Waller is 4th shortest TE at 4.9 yards/target, and Renfrow 3rd shortest WR at 6.4 yards/target. Together they account for about 45% of all Carr targets in 2019.
  • Looking now to Oakland’s defense, this is a game the Bears should find success through the air. Raiders giving up 8.1 yards/attempt (23rd), with 9 TD and only 1 INT for a passer rating of 106.8 (25th).
  • Some of that is because Mahomes lit them up, but Flacco and Cousins both posted a passer rating >100 against them, and Brissett threw for 3 TDs. Their pass D is bad, in no small part because they can’t rush the passer (only 5 sacks through 4 games).
  • Oakland’s run D is actually pretty solid, coming in at 16th in rush yards/game and 11th in yards/carry.
    • Editor’s Note: Dalvin Cook rushed for 110 on only 16 carries against them.

Tweet of the Week (kinda)

I found this story incredibly moving.


Gambling Advice

Survivor Pool

Yes, I’m still alive, because the Chiefs managed to scrounge out a win in Detroit. This week I am incredibly tempted to take the Chicago Bears in London. But I’m not ready to risk this historic run on the right arm of Chase Daniel. So I’ll take the Philadelphia Eagles at home against the New York Jets and Luke Falk.

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Straight Bet

I’ll be in London, not watching the Packers play the Cowboys, but I’ll be rooting for Dallas. Call this “an emotional hedge”. I’m going to a local bookie shop and putting 20£ on the Packers to win outright at +165. Dallas has beaten the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. Are we sure they’re any good?

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The Parlay

Four teams to win outright: Patriots over Redskins, Bears over Raiders, Eagles over Jets, Chiefs over Colts. That gets you to around +118 and you’ll more than double your money.


Game Prediction

David Montgomery’s line: 24 carries, 145 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Chicago Bears 30,  Oakland Raiders 10

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