135 Comments

Using Points-Per-Game to Profile the Typical Playoff Team

| June 15th, 2018

I’ve been writing a bunch of articles lately about how the Bears are expected to improve, so now I want to focus on what level they have to reach in order to make the playoffs.

As I’ve said before, there is some precedent to teams who have been as bad as the Bears over the last few years going straight to the playoffs in recent NFL history, but not many make that big of a jump. I still think it’s more likely that the Bears end up somewhere around average this year and are poised to make a playoff push in 2019.

But if they are to be one of the few that jump directly to the playoffs, what type of improvement will they have to show? In an effort to answer this question, I looked at the offensive and defensive rankings in terms of points per game for every team from 2008-17. I then looked at what those profiles looked like for playoff teams.


Crunching the Data

Unsurprisingly, teams that had better offenses and defenses made the playoffs more often. I generally split the rankings into quartiles (1-8, 9-16, 17-24, and 25-32) and grouped teams based on their combination of stronger and weaker unit. We’ll tentatively call 1-8 good, 9-16 above average, 17-24 below average, and 25-32 bad. The results can be seen in the table below, or full raw data can be viewed here.

So we basically have four different categories of teams that consistently make the playoffs.

  • Good offense and defense. All of these teams have made the playoffs over the last 10 years except the 2008 Patriots, who went 11-5. You mean to tell me teams that are really good on both sides of the ball make the playoffs? No way!
  • Good stronger unit, above average weaker unit. Slightly lower percentages here, but now about 80% of teams make the playoffs. Again, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Teams that are among the best in the league on offense or defense and above average in the other should be in the playoffs. Most of the exceptions just missed earning a playoff berth, as they averaged over 9 wins per year.
  • Good stronger unit, below average weaker unit. Just over 60% of these teams made the playoffs, which again makes a lot of sense. Having one unit among the best in the league is enough to win you a lot of games even if your other side of the ball isn’t all that strong.
  • Both units above average. Just under half of these teams made the playoffs. I was honestly surprised a well-balanced solid team with no great unit had lower playoff odds than one great unit and one below-average one. That speaks to the importance of building one really strong unit.

Other combinations almost never make the playoffs; the exceptions are almost exclusively mediocre teams that won a weak division or lucked into a wild card berth with 9 wins.


Applying to 2018 Bears

Looking at these four groups, where could the Bears fall in 2018? Let’s take a quick look at both sides of the ball to see where they’ll likely fall.

  • Defense: the Bears ranked 9th in points per game allowed last year, which would qualify them as above average in the above categories. With mostly the same unit back this year, I think expecting a similar outcome is a reasonable expectation for 2018. I believe the lack of edge rush will keep them from becoming a top-end unit, but it is possible they find a way to take another step forward and become a top defense, which would make getting a playoff berth easier.
  • Offense: Chicago’s offense has been among the league’s worst for the last several years, but as I wrote last week, is likely to improve in 2018 based on recent NFL history. How much they improve will be the key determinant for how good the Bears are this year. If they can get to the average or above-average level, the Bears should have at least a 50% shot at being a playoff team, but the odds aren’t good if they only step up to the below-average level and the defense holds as above-average but not great.

So in my estimation, the defense is likely going to be in the above average category, but might step it up to a top unit, and the offense is most likely going to be below average, but might step it up to above average. If both units perform to their more optimistic projection, the Bears will most likely be a playoff team. If one unit performs to the more optimistic projection, they have around a 50% chance at making the playoffs, and if neither unit performs to the more optimistic projection, they’ll likely miss the playoffs, but still win more games than they have the past few years.

Like I said at the top, I still think the most likely outcome is that the Bears are around .500 this year and make the playoffs in 2019, but there is a somewhat realistic path to them making the playoffs in 2018.

Tagged: , ,

  • That Guy

    I was wondering if Jeff would have a post up today. Between golf and the World Cup, he’s gotta be tired from constantly jizzing his pants.

    Thank Halas for Wood!

  • CanadaBear

    Good stuff JW. I’m convinced the O is going to be much better but inconsistent. I expect them to drop 40 on a couple of teams this year. And then follow that up with 10 or less in a couple of games.

  • leftcoastdave

    Ranking a D by the metric of points allowed is inherently flawed. Simply stated, if your O is not putting points on the board, your opponent does not need to put many up either. Clocks get run out.
    That said, other factors indicate (IMHO) that da Bears do have an above average D based upon its strength in the trenches against the run and a now much improved secondary.
    Fangio finally has a solid core group returning in most areas from which he can begin to attack the O much more aggressively than in the last two years. As with music, you establish the theme which is now understood and then add the variation.

    • John F

      “… if your O is not putting points on the board, your opponent does not need to put many up either…”

      So true. Although this may also be why the Bears haven’t gotten a lot of interceptions on defense the last couple years – or scored a lot of defensive touchdowns.

      I have to believe that even scoring another touchdown a game (maybe too much to ask) can only help the defense since the other team will have to take more chances, and the defense can be more aggressive when they have a lead. Bend – don’t break – defense doesn’t work in the long run IMHO. Aggressive defense that turns the ball over and/or get’s teams in third-and-long is the better way to go – even if you give up some big plays along the way.

    • That’s fair. There are certainly other metrics which you could argue are better. I thought about using DVOA, but I’ve soured on that one a bit recently because it doesn’t match my perception of Bears’ units over the last five to seven years as well as points per game does. In particular I think they really overrated Chicago’s offense a few times.

      I could run these same numbers with DVOA, but I doubt they’d turn out much different.

  • leftcoastdave

    Here’s a great take on why Nagy wants Daniels playing guard. It’s about his ability to get off the snap at Iowa AND get into position to block on the second level.

    “What was so impressive about Daniels in college was his ability to make
    up all that ground after the snap, and shoot out of his stance to beat
    opponents to a spot. ”

    https://beargoggleson.com/2018/05/15/chicago-bears-film-james-daniels-guard/

  • 505Bears

    Good info, but too many numbers for a Friday…haha

  • AlbertInTucson

    Next in the spotlight: Kellen Winslow, Jr.

    Multiple charges including rape & kidnapping.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/reports-former-nfl-te-kellen-winslow-jr-facing-rape-kidnapping-charges-san-diego-233247810.html

    • willbest

      Why is he robbing trailer parks? 90% of the time when I look at criminal behavior I think of Tim Robbins straight laced character in Nothing to Lose where he is explaining to the would be criminal Martin Lawerance about how to be a successful criminal.

      • CanadaBear

        He’s not right in the head. Not sure if it’s drugs but something is horribly wrong with him. Erratic behavior to say the least.

        • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

          Something is very not right in his head. The more that gets reported the more awful it gets.

          • CanadaBear

            The encounter in the trailer really did it for me. None of that makes any sense. Hope he gets some help.

        • The act of most crimes is irrational. What sane rational person breaks into any house?

          Gotta be desperate, phycotic , drugged up or all of the above.

          Remember that Lion WR who went on some crazy 2 week crime spree?

          Who the hell does that when you’re getting possibly millions from playing football!

          Throw me 100k a yr and I wont even break the speed limit!

          • willbest

            The problem with burglary is virtually nobody keeps thousands of dollars of cash lying around. So you are grabbing items. And while you might be able to be in and out in 10 minutes grabbing 20k retail, you are going to be lucky to get 1-2k for it. The risk/reward just isn’t there.

            You also have to know the value of things. Like my high quality wood working tools could be sold on ebay for $2-3,000. They are sitting in my detached garage, which my kids often leave open. It would take somebody with a duffel bag about 90 seconds to nab them. But nobody strung up is going to know that sort of thing.

          • I was just talking to someone about when putting up a fence.
            It used to be you could return tools and such to Home Depot. But now i think you need a receipt or at minimum they link it to your card.

            Guess a lot of crack heads got wise.

            Some meth head tried stealing copper wire from my friend’s backyard once. He chased him off.

            I mean, copper. These guys are desperate AF

          • leftcoastdave

            A home is considered a soft target.

          • willbest

            Only if it is unoccupied. If there is someone in it, it becomes exceptionally unpredictable

      • Irish Sweetness

        CTE.

  • AlbertInTucson

    And, Hello, Raidas!

    There’s some new smoke around Martavis Bryant…

    https://sports.yahoo.com/martavis-bryant-no-stranger-suspension-getting-suspended-132722911.html

  • Russian Hacked Pacebot 2.0

    Solid read Wood.

  • Manafort now in fed ass pounding prison as predicted.

    Get used to it! It’s fri, he’ll never oggle these in person eva again

    https://www.instagram.com/boobs_fanatic/?hl=en

    • willbest

      “Get used to it! It’s fri, he’ll never oggle these in person eva again”

      Is that admission by you that he has nothing on Trump? Because if he had something on Trump he would be out either because Trump pardons him or because Mueller cuts him a deal.

      • Lol i DARE Trump to pardon him. I hope he does. See what happens.
        But weren’t you the one who predicted the judge won’t in prison him for witness tampering? Someone cited some hot shot lawyer making that case, but i thought it was baloney.

        Manafort may indeed be the top guy. Just happened to be in charge of Trump’s campaign…. That would mean him dying in prison since he won’t have anyone to flip on.

        I`m also positive the prosecutors have state charges against him in their back pockets in case Trump is stupid enough to pardon him

        As most know, can only pardon federal crimes.

        If OJ and Capone have taught us, the law hates high profile criminals and traitors slipping through the cracks. They’ll get Manafort one way or another.

        Whether he has the goods on Trump is another matter.

        Trump was shouting on the capaign trail for wikileaks, a russian spy front, to hack Hillary.

        Seems like collusion already, but of course, just another coincedence…

        • willbest

          I think it was John F that linked you that.

          Your collusion bubble took a massive blow with the IG report, incidentally. Peter Strzok who was tasked with investigating the Russian-Trump collusion angle prior to the election and on through to the appointment of Mueller told his mistress that he was hesitant to sign on to Mueller’s team because he didn’t think there was any there there. This is a guy who worked it for over 6 months, and was in the best position of anybody (including Comey and McCabe) to know what was what on that front. He also has demonstrated through his text that he had a rabid hatred of Trump.

          • Manafort and Cohen have’nt flipped yet, though they’re close. Only then (short of Putin releasing the pee tape) will we know if Trump conspired and colluded

            NONE of the 500 pages of the IG report exonerates nor even mentions Trump’s collusion. Had nothing to do with it.

            And while Strozk was def biased, the checks and balances held . Unlike w Comey, who took the UNPRECEDENTED step of holding a news conference to wag his finger at Hillary right before the election. And the kicker- He himself was using private emails for sensetive material!

            So there was plenty of blame all around.

            But unless you’re going to argue that Trump fired Comey cuz he unfairly targeted Hillary, then door B is that he fired him over “the russia thing” as Trump already admitted on tv.

            So the next question is – why?

          • willbest

            You are right. the text where Strzok admits that he didn’t think there was any collusion was revealed back in Jan of this year. It was being circulated today with all the other juicy tidbits and I hadn’t seen it before, so I made an incorrect assumption.

            https://nypost.com/2018/01/23/disgraced-fbi-agent-had-doubts-about-mueller-probe/

            As for Comey, supposedly he told Trump he wasn’t a target. And Trump told him to tell the world, and Comey refused. Insubordination is a solid reason to fire somebody.

          • Supposedly, but according to whom? Trump? A pathological liar.
            Comey, a lifelong republican, claims 100% it was about the russian investigation. He also wanted to fire Meuller, Rosenstein and Sessions for not ending it, but can’t due to Rep push back from the likes of Lindsey Graham and even McConnell (and a reported ‘suicide pact ‘from the 3)

            So the question remains- why is he so scared of the Mueller investgation?

            It may lead to russia. But it also may lead, to of all things, the mob and shady real estate deals

          • willbest

            Comey just had is reputation shattered. And the IG report all but says he cared more about his own ass than the truth or procedure.

            If the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt, why wouldn’t he be scared of it? Witch hunts aren’t about truth. They are about angry people burning people they don’t like at the stake.

            Shady RE deals (of which I am confident he has been involved in many) doesn’t really matter for the purposes of his Presidency or his representation of us though. They all do it. Its weird when they don’t. Like Biden. How dumb does have to be to not have much more than his government pension. Even Bernie Sanders cashed in.

          • What-about-Will returns!

            The “witch hunt” has so far found Trump’s national security advisor Flynn GUILTY of lying to FBI , campaign aid Gates guilty of financial fraud and yup lying to investegators, Trump forign policy advisor, guilty of lying to FBI about russian cinnections.

            They have charged 14 Russians, 3 russian companies, got 5 guilty pleas.

            Manafort , Trump CAMPAIGN CHAIR, now in prison for witness tampering awaiting trial for conspiracy with russians and ukranians

            And oh yeah, his long time personal lawyer Cohen also gonna be sent to prison for illegall lobbying and possible russian and italian mob ties maybe connected to Trump

            But wait, there’s more! Trump is now getting sued for using his “charity” as a front to funnel $.

            And that’s not even taking into account his suspicious save Chinese spy firm CTE who just coincendentally granted his daughter trademarks, or their dubious dealings w the Emirates

            And there’s more, but this would turn into a manifesto

            Yet we’re supposed to believe all that is equvilant to Biden who i think still takes the train to work, or Bernie who drives a YUGO?

            I mean, I know Trumpsters like et tus and moral equvilency, but the avg person recognizes that there’s level.

            Nixon didn’t get impeached because ‘all politicians are corrupt”

          • willbest

            Honestly butch, if you can’t take the words of a man in the absolute know, who hates trump more than anybody when he had no motive for lying, there is no hope for you.

            Other than manafort who is getting dinged for shit from 10 years ago, everybody else got in trouble for false statements to the FBI. Which is to say they wouldn’t even been in that situation if they just told them to sod off.

            And you have to be something special to bring up the Russian business. It has been reveal to be a complete PR stunt because when the one company filed an appearance saying they would submit to the US court and demanded discovery and a speedy trial, Mueller tucked his dick and started complaining that he wasn’t ready. Sorry, prosecution doesn’t get to slow walk justice after it indicts. He is back in court saying they shouldn’t get all the evidence because national security. Whelp too bad. He should have thought about that first. You can’t criminally prosecute people unless you are going to turn over all your evidence including the process of gathering that evidence so that the entire chain can be attacked.

            Oh And one of those companies didn’t even exist during period in question. But he sold you Butch that he was doing something real.

            So yeah, witch hunt is the appropriate term. You are grasping at straws.

            Meanwhile Obamas IGs keep showing how awful the top guys at the FBI were. But you still trust them.

          • That Guy

            Jesus Tittyfucking Christ.

            Why is the right hyperventilating over Strzok’s PRIVATE texts to his MISTRESS that were only revealed because he was DUMB enough to do them on his work phone?

            First, those texts don’t prove anything about what he was doing in an official capacity. Will, if you have a client who’s paying you your fee, but he’s an asshole and you hate him personally, and you say something to your wife to that effect, does that compromise you as an attorney? Does your personal opinion, expressed to another person, mean you cannot do your job? Plus, this was a woman he was banging and trying to impress, so how do we know what texts are absolutely reflective of his point of view, and what percentage might be exaggerated to get/stay in her pants? What was his state of mind when he sent them? Was he drunk ever? Frustrated?

            If you say you hate Marc Trestman and want him to die in a fire, and then he dies, does that mean you’re a suspect? Even if you have a box of matches?

            Oh, and Strzok was investigating the Russia connection? Think about all the investigation that’s been going on since, with subpeona power, with charges against witnesses for LYING TO INVESTIGATORS. Let’s go with your assertion that Strzok was an “expert” on Russia collusion who thought little of Mueller’s investigation. MAYBE STRZOK WAS WRONG BECAUSE WITNESSES WERE LYING, or because he didn’t have the broad access and compelling power of a Special Counsel to get more evidence.

            Let’s tally the score: we’ve got indictments by the dozen. We’ve got guilty pleas to lesser charges (yet still felonies) by several connected individuals against whom Mueller had pretty good cases for even stronger charges. That’s not “no there there.”

            The bottom line is that the Mueller investigation has revealed multiple crimes committed by multiple individuals. Two of whom were critically-important individuals in the campaign and then opening days of a President’s administration.

            That ANYONE says/implies that Mueller’s investigation is going nowhere is laughable.

            Let’s remember the last time a President was impeached, it was for lying under oath in a deposition about a blowjob, and that deposition was the result of a protracted investigation into the President’s real estate deals years before.

            So don’t ANYONE say “let’s wrap this up, there’s nothing here, no collusion!!” Because even if there ends up being no proof of collusion, there IS proof of crimes. Guilty pleas and near airtight multi-count indictments with witness tampering thrown in. Jesus Tittyfucking Christ.

  • willbest

    In other news the Asians suing Harvard for systemic discrimination appear to have unearthed their smoking gun

    “The court documents, filed in federal court in Boston, also showed that
    Harvard conducted an internal investigation into its admissions policies
    in 2013 and found a bias against Asian-American applicants. But Harvard never made the findings public or acted on them.”

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/us/harvard-asian-enrollment-applicants.html

    • I guess it varies greatly from college to college.
      I remember talking to a korean student who said as long as his grades are good and he’s part of the korean student union, he’ll get into UCLA cuz that’s how they roll. USC also seems to highly recruit Asians. Lotta mula. They’re almost singlehandedly remaking DTLA

      • willbest

        California passed a state amendment saying that the California system cannot factor race in admissions. As a result Berkley and UCLA are 30-40% Asian. The Ivies have suspiciously capped Asian enrollment at around 16-18%. This despite the fact that they are around 30-40% of the National Merit Semifinalist.

        This is a case where I think the Asians have Harvard by the short and curlies, but then betting against Harvard is a foolish thing to do.

    • AlbertInTucson

      Oops.

    • Johnnywad

      They should be psyched about Northwestern University then. Seems they all ended up there.

  • Russian Hacked Pacebot 2.0

    Jesus Christ, are you guys aware that Kellen Winslow Jr is a fucking serial kidnapping Grandma Rapist?

    • CanadaBear

      He’s seriously out of his mind at this point. I hope he gets help.

      • Russian Hacked Pacebot 2.0

        Haha, yeah, some people just need to be separated from this Earth man. We keep trying to fix everyone.

        • CanadaBear

          I think your sainthood just got revoked! I know the guy has been a piece of work for a long time but he’s seriously out of his mind right now.

          • willbest

            He left a trail of victims. Seems wrong for the state to attempt to rehabilitate him, when they are going to get dick all.

            Then again if we can humanely study him to figure out if we can better identify his condition and treat people before they go bat shit crazy

          • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

            Darren Sharper has been requesting a new cell mate.

      • Irish Sweetness

        But there is no help for CTE. That’s one of the worst things about it.

        • CanadaBear

          Not sure it’s CTE.

  • willbest

    George Lucas talked with James Cameron about how he would have done star wars 7-9 and it is so rancid that I have to believe Disney paid him to say it in order to convince the fans that they should be grateful for Kathleen Kennedy’s awful and incompetent vision for the franchise.

    http://www.joblo.com/movie-news/george-lucas-reveals-more-details-on-his-star-wars-sequel-trilogy-plans-325

    • Irish Sweetness

      They bought Star Wars without The Man. He should have had using his ideas for the trilogy as part of the deal. He and we will regret that for a long time.

      • KentuckyBearsFan

        Lucas was better before CGI. jar jar did not play well on the big screen.

        • KentuckyBearsFan

          Solo was disappointing. But at least it wasn’t “Jar Jar: A Star Wars Story.”

          • evantonio

            Solo was a fun ride. I liked it better than TLJ.

            There were some weak points – giving him his last name, Qi’ra’s acting, lack of Lando even though we had Lando – but overall a good flick.

          • Irish Sweetness

            The Fembot was ridiculous. Lando fucks robots?

            And Enfys Nest was scary until gender was confirmed.

          • evantonio

            It’s never confirmed that he makes the robot sex.

            And if he does? So what. The sex robot industry is just starting to heat up here.

          • Irish Sweetness

            I liked it. And it had you-know-who at the end, and he’s cool. Not an immature emo like Kylo Ren.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    How to make golf more interesting?

    Exec: Let’s leave a live mic on and see what they are talking about in the crowd.
    Another Exec: GENIUS!!! What could possibly go wrong?

    http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/us-open-commentary-on-fox-gets-sexually-explicit.html

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    What is going on with former players? They are acting as if they have a hole in their heads.

    https://sports.yahoo.com/former-nfl-quarterback-erik-kramer-arrested-alleged-domestic-violence-incident-224928206.html

    • willbest

      I want to know if it is a trend. The NFL has been around for decades. And they have been hitting each other in the head just as long. Are things getting worse, or has it always been like this and it’s only thanks to the internet that we know about it.

      Almost none of these guys merit a national story, so you would only ever find out about it from the local paper

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        yeah really don’t care. I just wanted to do a hole in the head joke involving Kramer.

        • There, I said it

          Gun to my head, I wouldn’t recognize Kramer if I saw him on the street.

          But that guy needs a lobotomy like I need a hole in my head.

      • Irish Sweetness

        Internet. Awareness. Will Smith.

      • AlbertInTucson

        A lot it of HAS to be attributable to the way News is distributed these days.

  • Irish Sweetness

    How to get to the playoffs? Points per game? Stats?

    Score more than your opponent. That’s pretty much guaranteed to get you into the playoffs.
    We’ll have to score a lot with no pass rush or balls on defense.

    • CanadaBear

      Top 10 D last year, 7th in sacks.

      • Johnnywad

        He’s not having it.

        He wants blitzes.

        • CanadaBear

          I know. This is what we do! I fully expect the D to take a step this year if they are healthy. Hopefully they can find someone to get home on the blitzes. I think Floyd has it in him if he figures it out and stays on the field.

      • Irish Sweetness

        No good.

        Monsters.

  • leftcoastdave

    US Open. TONY FINAU!!!!!! Gotta love it!

  • AlbertInTucson

    Happy Father’s Day, fellow Dads!

    • Irish Sweetness

      Where to collect our cash prizes and medals, Al?

      • AlbertInTucson

        I got a trip to the Diamondbacks game last night, among other things.

      • AlbertInTucson

        Contact sons/daughters/grandkids.

  • Looks like those alt right snowflakes must be choking on it now that Roger Stone admitted he met with Russian agents after swearing up and down that he never would

    • willbest

      Don’t care. Washington post reports nothing came of this meeting based on the texts exchanged. Just another situation where the only reason there is a crime is because somebody talked to the police.

      I guess in prog land talking to a Russian is a criminal act, or maybe just if you work for trump. Out here in the real world though you can talk to whoever the hell you want unless you are harassing them.

      It’s also not a crime to dig up dirt from any source on your political opponent. You can even pay them if you follow certain rules

      • BenderMcLugh

        talking to a Russian and lying about it to the FBI is a criminal act, which I am certain you know

        • willbest

          Isn’t that implied in my post?

          • BenderMcLugh

            “I guess in prog land talking to a Russian is a criminal act”

          • Tee hee.

            Conspiring with an enemy government to gather dirt on an opponent is called treason. In every land.

          • If we ran something like that in Russia, all those infiltrators like Manofort would’ve met ‘accidental’ deaths.

            But I guess all we can do is collect massive evidence and charge them.

          • willbest

            “Just another situation where the only reason there is a crime is because somebody talked to the police.”

            The comment you cite is part of my large complaint that the act of speaking to Russians is not a crime. But for some reason, a good number of people around here start having an orgasm every time it is revealed that somebody that Trump talked to during the last 2 years, also talked to a Russian.

            Incidentally, the reason the WaPo found out about this is because Stone-Caputo voluntary came forward to correct testimony that was made to congress. Caputo says he only remembered the meeting because he discovered it in preparation for his conversation with Mueller. So the odds he lied to the FBI about it are low.

            And who knows if Stone has. The WaPo reporter even concedes as much. Mueller is looking into. He hasn’t decided anything. All we know is what Stone has said publicly before contradicts with what he said now. To illustrate

            “I had no meetings with Russians”

            “Based on my recollection, I had no meetings with Russians”

          • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

            “Just another situation where the only reason there is a crime is because somebody talked to the police”

            So as long as the police don’t know, and as long as that person doesn’t remember correctly no crime has been committed.

          • John F

            …as long as that person doesn’t remember correctly no crime has been committed

            You haven’t been paying attention lately. When you don’t remember correctly you are indicted on a 1001 violation: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1001#

          • willbest

            That is why a person experienced with being deposed says things like “I don’t recall” “My best guess” “To my knowledge” its really quite night and day when you sit through them.

          • John F

            A deposition is civil, those responses don’t work in a criminal case. If you say “I don’t recall” and they have an email that mentions the thing you don’t recall, the assumption is that you intentionally lied …. these people are judged on arrests, indictments, plea bargains and convictions. Don’t ever assume they are seeking the truth and/or justice.

          • willbest

            While what you say is true. Lying is a debatable fact. Which puts it well outside the effort vs. probability payoff. The more work necessary to secure a guilty verdict, the better the payoff needs to be.

            I know on this forum that people got issues with non-violent offenders in jail on possession charges. But possession charges are easy to prove. They just require the police to secure the chain of custody and there is dick all a defense attorney can do about them except agreeing to plead guilty to say 1 gram instead of the 4 grams they found which results in better sentencing recommendations or whatever. Same thing with false statements. All they need to do is the statement was false, not that the speaker KNEW it was false. That is a much higher bar.

          • John F

            Will, you know better than that – they don’t need to prove anything.

            These guys threaten to indict wives, children and other relatives if you don’t plead guilty. They threaten to drag it out for years and bankrupt you.

            These are not nice people.

      • John F

        Word to the wise, don’t ever talk to the FBI or any other federal law enforcement person about anything, even if you have done nothing wrong.

        They just wait for you to say “and” instead of “or” or have you say something happened on a Tuesday when it happened on a Friday and then the US attorney indicts you on a 1001 violation so they can have a scalp.

    • Sactowns#1

      Dude, I’ve found there’s really no point in trying to sway trump supporters. I’ve come to realize, they dont so much support trump, rather than their hatred for the left will drive them to support just about anyone and anything that they feel would upset “libs”. It’s irrational and self destructive but thats what we have.

      • Johnnywad

        Find me a political persuasion these days that doesn’t function that way. There is no middle anymore. Just pissed off people on both edges, and people like me that have completely checked out. It’s just like you say, a waste of time. But it most definitely cuts both ways.

        • Sactowns#1

          I disagree. I cant think of any liberal policies or politicians who are supported just because they anger the right.

          • Johnnywad

            I missed the thrust of your post.

            Those folks you’re speaking of surely exist. But it’s a minority. My relatives are nearly all Trump folks. They’re genuinely happy with what he’s doing.

            Personally, I think they’re being duped. And I’d say the same for the folks that were pleased with Obama. For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, nothing has changed for the overwhelming majority of the popilulation.

          • I actually have no problem with what Trump is doing at the Mexican border. The thugs use kids as shields. There are rampant murder squads running amok in Mexico with lawlessness that Trump need only expose the American people to.

            Here in Chicago, I know several stories of MS13 threatening CPD officers with killing their families when arrested. Many many stories of shit going down on the west side. The Latin Kings look like girl scouts next to MS13.

            I just don’t like that the POTUS is a Russian agent and Putin’s bitch and a traitor. I don’t disagree with him on everything. The Russian mob sucks.

      • willbest

        I suppose that’s because nobody could honestly support the policy position he has taken without being all the bad -ists.

        • What Republican policies? Free trade? Conserving law and order institutes like the FBI and DOJ? Saluting N. Korean generals? Christian based values like snatching away kids from their mothers?

          The Republican party doesn’t stand for anything anymore.

          It’s now powered by the whims of a NY snakeoil salesmen who sold steak knives

          • willbest

            ” Christian based values like snatching away kids from their mothers?”

            dude, even GP doesn’t agree with you.

            The 9th circuit ruled that the children can’t be detained longer than 20 days. So they get released, and the parents don’t. And even that isn’t the case. If the parents don’t claim asylum they are usually processed and deported in time. Its only if they claim asylum that things take longer.

            Two, a lot of human traffickers cross the borders claiming that a minor is their kid when they aren’t. So just doing a catch and release facilitates human trafficking in America.

          • If it’s such a humane program, why does Trump himself want to end it, and is blaming the Dems for it?

            We’re back to interning kids.

            If that doesn’t disturb you as an American, Christian, parent or human, don’t know what will.

            Sessions already revealed the rational: deterrence

            But much like w the death penalty, it’s fatally flawed cuz those immigrants are so desperate , it’s not gonna deter IMO

            If your son was gonna be kidnapped to be recruited into MS13 and your daughter sold off to them to be passed around and whoring corners at 12, would it deter you from getting the fuck out and seeking asylum?

          • willbest

            Obviously they aren’t desperate if they are skipping Mexico, trying to get to the US, and then live in the same neighborhoods that MS-13 operates in when they get here.

            I presume Trump said it because he knows the left has a good PR shot in there and he is trying to mitigate it. Who knows what happens when the media moves on to next weeks scandal. You gotta watch what they do later.

            Incidentally, if we had a border wall this wouldn’t even be an issue. I know you say it won’t be 100% effective, so don’t bother. Except you know people in Europe seem to think they work. They just got done paying for Turkey’s wall. But beyond that lets say it reduces border crossings by 90%. Now instead of 1 million, you got 100k. That is a far more manageable number to place in your detention centers and to provide due process to in a timely fashion. All around more humane than the current system

          • Trump is separating children so he can get his wall. Let’s be honest. He thinks the Dems will cave when the public pressures them, but NO ONE is buying that a Republican House, Senate and exucutive is somehow being sabotaged by bleeding hearts on this issue.

            There’s a lot of pushback from within his own ranks, Catholic bishops, even Southern Baptists and Cruz of all soulless creatures

            So his gambit of tearing apart families is not going to work.

            They’ll likely pass something specific for this without anything comprehensive like a wall.

            The ironic part is that the Dems already gave Trump $ in exchange for DACA but the hardliners rejected it, and now they don’t have shit

            As to if walls are effective, depends.

            If we want our entire southern border to resemble Berlin, I guess it can be.

            But again, what is being walled off?

            Most drugs come over the seas or planes.

            And all that would happen is they’ll come through Canada and maybe a dime will cost $3 more. Then what, build a wall with Canada?

            So build the wall isn’t for “protection” if the US really wanted to stop drug cartels then maybe they should stop fucking up their children so they turn to drugs.

            The wall is more about political demographics . at this rate, the ‘white’ population will be in the minority in 50 yrs, at which point Republicans (because of their own xenophobia) will become obsolete.

            Trump is trying to stop this.

            That’s really what it’s about, but no Rep will ever dare admit that on TV.

            They’ll simply use other pretexts like MS13 or terrorists or whatever memo Fox hands out that month

          • willbest

            Thank you for proving my point. You make everything about morality and then call the other person a bigot. I mean it couldn’t be economic reasons. And the US has never in its history ever hated on white immigrants. So it obviously has to be because they are the wrong color.

          • Trump has stated it that way. ‘Mexico isn’t giving us their best. They’re giving us rapists and killers’

            Not too mention all those other ‘shit hole’ countries and trying to paint all immigrants as MS13

            Trump is not using economics to build that wall.

          • willbest

            He has in fact has mentioned the economics of it on multiple occasions. Those are boring so the media doesn’t report on it until paragraph 17.

            But even you said its desperate people coming here. Those typically aren’t economically the best people.

            http://time.com/4621185/worker-productivity-countries/

            I mean look at that. Lazy ass Brits doing 25% less work per hour than Americans. Send the Norweigns over here so they can carry our ass. Maybe we can tolerate the French and Germans. Mexicans are a 70% less efficient than American workers. But look at their work ethic. 41.2 hours per week to Americans 33.6.

          • No one really pays attention to the economics cuz he’s continually harping on MS13 and smugglers.

            Also, anyone can cite economics to make their argument.

            There’s plenty of studies that cite that immigrants help economies. CA and NY have perhaps the most immigrants, and they’re not hurting for jobs like the hemegenous rust belt, right?

            A lot of those jobs are being replaced by robots not immigrants.

            I just went to a McDonalds in the ghetto and a kiosk took my order. That’s not Juan taking jobs.

            And regardless of economics, separating crying daughters from fleeing mom’s seeking asylum is wrong.

            Slavery mightve made economic sense to the south but it was still wrong.

            Interning Japanese Americans was wrong.

            Even Trump’s dumb w
            ass knows it’s wrong or he wouldn’t be trying to blame the Dems

          • willbest

            I don’t recall many sob stories of moral wrongness out of you before 2016. I wasn’t around back before 2008 for a proper analysis from reverend Butch though. FFS 20k children in the US are sent to foster care every year because their parents commit a crime. But I should care more about these 2k?

            If I listen to how awful things are the country is on fire, it should be a human rights violation to let them in.

            What’s your solution? Build some family oriented detention centers and DNA match to make sure you aren’t facilliating rape of minors? Release them in the US so they can ignore their court date and disappear?

            How about this. We put a GPS tracker in them, and then fine citizens like yours vouch for them. And then if they miss a hearing or worse the American voucher takes responsibility

          • So asylum seekers are automatically criminals? Equating all immigrants to criminals is racist. If that’s the case, a lot of progeny should return to their grand parents country since they likely didn’t enter the country legally.

            When the Irish were escaping the potatoes feminine, or Italians civil war, or Jews persecution, we didnt just assume they were all criminals.

            (Though there was still a lot of resistance to them by natives or Anglos)

            I don’t know what you’re getting at that the country is on fire. As if caravans of MS13 gangsters are just busing in.

            There’s a lot of solutions. The first step is keeping the parent and child together.

            Then sort out the rest, like who are truly asylum seekers, etc

            Trump just wants his wall and is trying to use this as a bargaining chip, but all he’s doing is sowing the seeds of disillusionment in his own base who aren’t fully initiated in the cult.

            Even Cruz is against it

            This will get solved before midterms because Americans aren’t goose steppers who just follow orders.

            And Trump will still be wall less and try something else like maybe shutting down the govt

          • willbest

            Anybody that illegally cross the border is a criminal. Anybody that overstays their visa is a criminal. Its pretty straight forward. There is a process for asylum seekers to not be criminals only about half of them take that approach though.

            Incidentally, the majority of Asylum seekers are from Asia, not South America. Just so you know which non-whites you should be most “how dare you sir” about.

            And you stated a goal, not a solution. Keep them together in the same kennel? Should we build an internment camp? Are you calling your congressman and demanding he allocate more money for immigration judges and detention centers so that these people get due process in a timely manner?

            Or are you just going to hang around here and signal more virtue?

          • Cormonster

            A good chunk of the modern left is eerily similar to the Moral Majority / Christian Coalition of the 80’s and early 90’s with the constant moralizing and “we’re good, they are evil” crap. It’s fucking nauseating.

          • Is Laura Bush left?

            ” I live in a border state. I appreciate the need to enforce and protect our international boundaries, but this zero-tolerance policy is cruel. It is immoral. And it breaks my heart. ” –

            Are catholic bishops, southern Baptists and Methodists, and even reformed Jews lefty commies? Cuz they’re against Trump’s interning of children

            Both sides have some sactimonious asses, but the left isn’t quoting Paul to rob Peter

          • willbest

            The left just asks the government to do it for them.

          • SC Dave

            This is the crux of it all.

          • I’m sorry. Is Trump taking away the children and throwing them into kennels?

            Could sworn it was the FEDERAL border Patrol

            He asked the FEDERAL national guards to go down to the border.

            So Republicans like the federal and state govt agencies when it comes to their agendas.

          • willbest

            Those kennel picks are from 2014, but whatever you can do to push the narrative

      • 30% of Republicans were behind Nixon (an unlikable cunt if there ever was one) right up until the tapes were released.

        And even then, some dumbfucks were prolly hearing the tapes and mumbling “Jew conspiracy!” Or “who cares? He’s putting in judges”

        And that was w out a state sponsored propaganda agency like Fox keeping the base nicely tucked in the bubble.

        The old school principiled republicans are dead. All they have left are spineless cucks like Ryan and McConnell bending over for Trump, and that trickles down

        I think a lot of liberals and moderates forgot that this country is still made up of mostly uneducated ‘whites’ and they’re not about to abandon their last great white hope easily.

        • willbest

          The left turns everything into a moral issue and then calls anybody that doesn’t agree with them a bigot. Those uneducated whites are tired of being called bigots. That is how they go from voting for Obama to voting for Trump.

          • They went from Obama to Trump because of Hillary, not the insults

          • willbest

            Then somebody not Hillary should have no problem in 2020.

          • Depends. Dems aren’t that good at running campaigns (see, Hillary). There’s no leader in the Dems for presidential consideration. Pelosi, Schumer and Harris are DOA.

            Who else is even in the discussion?

            That Kennedy who delivered his own state of the Union is a dark horse. A red head who speaks Spanish. But is that going back?

            I also think at this point Trumpers are pot committed.

            They’ve endured the national and global contempt this far, like Vader, might be too late to turn back.

            And if the economy is good, (like under Bill) Americans don’t typically switch horses

            Few Americans really care about issues like conspiracy, corruption, collusion, deregulation, tariffs, nukes, democracy…as long as they’re getting paid every Fri.

            “Give them peace, land and bread” – Lennon

          • willbest

            I missed what Harris did wrong so as to disqualify her, or is it just a generalized hatred the whole country has of California?

            I doubt the economy makes it all the way to 2020 without a pull back. But what do I know, I have been predicting a recession as often as Zerohedge at this point.

          • Trump riled up the uneducated whites. When he said ‘there’s some good guys over there’ referring to torch carrying Nazis shouting ‘ Jews will not replace us’ hard for me to imagine them or their right wing sympathizers voting for an af am woman from “commy” Cali

            But this is a sorta philosophical debate within the left.

            Should they go ‘purple’ w a guy like Biden who uneducated whites will feel comfortable with, or do you go full Bernie w a person like Harris?

            Right now they’re judging district by district, but eventually the Dems are gonna have to decide on an identity

          • Johnnywad

            Trump has already won a second term

          • willbest

            I doubt I would go that far, but it would be stupid to bet against it at this juncture.

          • BerwynBomber

            Don’t know if there is a single reason. I would argue the Ferguson riots had more an effect on the election than Hillary hate.

            Hillary hate was already baked in. And it’s not like the right and a chunk of moderates didn’t despise Obama too. Though I would agree that racism checks people more than sexism.

            “Perfect” storm of a lot of reasons.

          • Irish Sweetness

            Let’s face it. Even Trump was an alternative to that lying cunt.

          • BerwynBomber

            We are on exact opposite ends of the political spectrum but can’t deny there is a ring of truth to that.

            The Robert DeNiro thing made me SMH. Plays right into the GOP and Trump.

          • willbest

            I doubt we are as far as part as you think. I am not, for example, opposed to some form of socialized medicine. I am however opposed to the government being in control of it.

  • “I am USSF”
    “United States Special Forces?”
    “No, bitch, I’m in the SPAAAAACE FOOOOOORCE”

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06/18/trump-orders-establishment-space-force-as-6th-branch-military.html

    • I guess Trump doesn’t have high enough clearance to check out our real military at Dreamland.

      The generals prob think he would invade Mars to distract us from the Mueller probe, so they keep him away from the cool toys.

      Possible futures for humanity

      A. Star Trek like utopia more or less beyond greed, nation states, racism, sexism and civil strife

      B. Mad Max. Somewhere along the way, our barbarity, tribalism, xenophobia, racism and narcissm finally killed our better angels. On the bright side, libertarians finally live in a world w out government

      C. Terminator. Computers do in fact become sentient and kill off half of humanity as they’re jerking off to Stormy Daniels. Then the nukes to finish off the job

      4. Idiocracy. We just slowly devolve into Trumps and let nature take its course. On the bright side, no more libtard snowflakes w their fancy degrees and ‘save the world’ gay shit! It’s all about Brawndo, bra

      • willbest

        Personally, I don’t know how you look at the billionaires are up to and think anything other than Elysium.

        • I was close to making that E. For Elysium.

          But the first billionaire who moves to our orbit is gonna get shot down by a competing nation state. If Un moves up to his space palace, Trump will shoot it down w his new space cowboys

          • willbest

            Nah they all meet a Bilderberg and laugh at us. They might kill off a few of us in a war against each other for show, but when its go time, they are headed up and those space cowboys are going to destroy all the launch pads, along with some power stations to present us with some more immediate problems than chasing on after them.

          • Irish Sweetness

            Or for the millionaires … High-Rise (2015).

          • Or maybe they’re already up there cloaked, chilling w aliens

            https://youtu.be/a1Y73sPHKxw

      • KentuckyBearsFan

        We’re dumb as dirt now but apparently it was worse before.

        (despite often enough everything in my being swearing it’s getting worse.)

        https://www.amazon.com/Enlightenment-Now-Science-Humanism-Progress/dp/0525427570

  • Sactowns#1

    Wow. I just realized training camp is only three weeks?!

    • willbest

      The most unbelievable part of that to me is they only have 10 practices before their first live scrimmage with the Ravens in the HoF game. I don’t think this pre-season is going to be a cause for a lot of hope.

    • BerwynBomber

      Three weeks? Camp starts July 9th?

      My bet is it starts in about six weeks.

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