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Data Entry: 2018 Mock Draft

| April 24th, 2018

At long last, draft week is upon us. In just two short days, months of endless speculation will finally be rendered obsolete with an action-packed three days of actual picks taking place.

Before we head to the time honored post-draft tradition of arguing why guys you’ve never heard of are going to be great NFL players simply because your team drafted them (and your team obviously had the best draft of any team), allow me to add my personal contribution to the time honored pre-draft tradition of pointlessly trying to guess what’s going to happen before it happens. Please feel free to mock me next week once we know how hilariously wrong this was.

My main goal here is not to be accurate, per se, but to generate discussion about what types of options are likely going to be considered by the Bears at various points in the draft. The logic behind each pick is going to be explained based on Ryan Pace’s trends at various points in the draft (you can review day 1, day 2, and day 3 here) and what players who fit those trends are likely to be good fits for Chicago’s current offense or defense based on current roster needs. Let’s use this more as a starting point for some intelligent last-minute draft discussion than simply honing in on these seven names.

Also, I’m not projecting any trades, even though I think it’s likely at least one involving the Bears will happen.


Round 1, Pick 8

Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

I think this pick is Quenton Nelson if he’s still there, but I don’t think he will be. Tremaine Edmunds it is. Edmunds is the round one option who best checks both boxes for Pace in round 1: he’s an exceptional athlete with tremendous upside at a position where a high-profile veteran was recently sent packing (two other names to keep an eye out for in that regard are Derwin James and Marcus Davenport).

Edmunds steps in as an inside linebacker with the potential to develop into a star under Vic Fangio.


Round 2, Pick 39

Lorenzo Carter, OLB

Day two means Pace looks to beef up the trenches, and nowhere is the need greater than at outside linebacker. If Carter is still on the board at 39, the Bears should grab him without hesitation. He’s long and athletic, just like Vic Fangio likes in edge rushers.

Of course, Carter might be gone by this point, and I also think it’s likely the Bears trade down from this spot. If they do trade down, I think Uchenna Nwosu is a likely option. He’s one of the few day two OLBs who fit the length and athleticism criteria Pace has set so far without being projected as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.


Round 4, Pick 105

Michael Gallup, WR

Day three is when Pace has looked for skill position players, and after letting Cam Meredith walk a few weeks ago, WR is now a need.

Enter Gallup as a great fit for the Bears’ new offense at wide receiver, and he’s even a small school prospect, something Pace has shown an affinity for on day three. He can be their 3rd or 4th WR from day one, ready to step into a bigger role if somebody in front of him gets hurt. I’ve seen Gallup projected anywhere from round 2 to 6, but WR is deep this year, so it seems like a realistic option he might still be on the board at this point.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Pace break from his trends a little bit and look for an offensive lineman here since he didn’t get a 2nd day two pick (essentially treating this like the 3rd round pick he doesn’t have). If that were to happen, somebody like OT Brandon Parker or guard Wyatt Teller would make a lot of sense. You could even see him trade up into late round three from this spot using a 6th round pick.


Round 4, Pick 115

Isaac Yiadom, CB

Sticking with the skill positions on day three, CB could use an infusion of youth, especially on the outside behind starters Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara. Yiadom fits the Fangio mold of a tall CB with long arms, and he could compete with Marcus Cooper to be the top backup boundary CB (a competition I think he’d win). Again, it’s hard to project who gets drafted where at this point; I’ve seen Yiadom slotted as a day 2 pick on some sites and a day 3 pick on others.


Round 5, Pick 145

Chase Edmonds, RB

Ryan Pace loves drafting running backs on day three and has invested a 4th or 5th round pick in the position every year so far. Even with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen both in the fold, I think that likely continues. The goal here has to be getting a player who is more of a well-rounded back than Howard (run-heavy) or Cohen (pass-heavy). Enter Chase Edmonds, another small school prospect who’s a good physical fit for this offense.


Round 6, Pick 181

Tanner Carew, LS

Once we hit rounds 6 and 7, Ryan Pace doesn’t seem to value the picks as highly as he does those earlier in day three, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of these last two selections traded away in earlier draft maneuvers. If they stay and pick here, I honestly have no clue what they’ll do. There’s just not enough history yet in these later rounds to find any sort of pattern for Pace.

So hey, why not a long snapper!? We know the Bears have been looking at Carew, and he played for offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich at Oregon. Maybe the Bears could use this spot to land Patrick Mannelly’s heir (now we just need Carew to grow a mullet).


Round 7, Pick 224

Bentley Spain, OT

Like in round 6, I’m completely guessing here. A 7th round pick is basically just an undrafted player you want to make sure is in your camp for a tryout anyway. And it’s possible this pick is traded away.

But we have seen Pace willing to use later picks on developmental offensive line projects like Tayo Fabuluje and Jordan Morgan, so maybe that happens here (or in round 6). When I Googled late-round offensive linemen looking for some names to check out, Spain jumped out to me because he blocked for Mitchell Trubisky in 2016. It’s hard to have any clue what players will or won’t be drafted by this point, so I didn’t do too much research trying to identify any other specific names.


Final Thought

Looking back at my picks here, one thing that jumps out is that the interior OL doesn’t get addressed at all, which doesn’t seem ideal. Quenton Nelson being there for the Bears in round 1 would take care of that, should it happen, or maybe we see an edge like Marcus Davenport taken in round 1, followed by an offensive lineman on day 2. A trade back for more day 2 picks-when Pace has historically taken his linemen-could also help in that regard.

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  • SC Dave

    It would not be good, IMO, if the OL was ignored (which you did point out). Some may believe in Heistand as some form of miracle worker, but you have to have good stone to sculpt masterpieces.

    • Yeah, this was projected based more on the trends I’ve identified the last few weeks, and it didn’t work out with how I projected the 1st pick.

      If he wants to focus more on needs, that could work with Marcus Davenport at 8 and then an interior OL in the 2nd, likely after a trade back. Those would fit the Pace profile as well.

      Or we could see interior OL in the 4th if the first 2 picks fall like this. Treat the 1st 4th round pick like the round 3 pick you don’t have and grab a trench player.

      • SC Dave

        How about a guy like Will Hernandez in the 2nd?

        • certainly possible, though I’m not convinced Hernandez is a great fit in this offense. He’s more of a mauler than a great puller like the Bears would want in their G.

    • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

      I bet Heistand could have made Webb a HOFer….

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    Not often does a LS get drafted.

    • he’s projected in rounds 6 or 7 this year.

      • BenderMcLugh

        If Deontay Thompson is there in round 6 and they pick a LS instead………oy

        • Who?

          • BenderMcLugh

            Deontay Burnett, my bad

          • If you’re talking late round sleepers, I’m a bigger fan of guys like Chase Edmonds, Richie James, and Ade Aruna.

          • BenderMcLugh

            I’ve had a thing for Burnett for a year now, he just seems to catch everything and there isn’t much buzz surrounding him.

  • Bear Instincts

    Happy 40th Birthday Coach Nagy!!! Bear Down!!!

  • AlbertInTucson

    Just asking: Is Roquan Smith still there at 8 in your mock, Professor?

    • Don’t know. Based on how Pace has drafted in the last, I’m fairly confident he would take Edmunds over Smith, though I personally would prefer Smith.

      • Big Mike

        Edmunds is a three year project to even know what you have. I saw him live in Blacksburg against Clemson. 2 tackles, 7 assists 0 sacks, 0 TFL. It wasn’t so much what Clemson did, as it was Edmunds facing top talent couldn’t rely on being athletic. He did play better in their bowl loss to Oklahoma. But he has no idea what he’s doing. He is just bigger and faster than everyone else. Don’t get me wrong his upside might be the highest on of all the guys we’ve talked about. Someone else pointed out that he also might be Vernon Ghoulston, whose draft profile was eerily similar. Ghoulston was one of the biggest draft busts ever.

        • Yeah, but Pace likes his 1st rd projects.

          White only 1 yr , limited route tree
          Floyd underweight
          Trub only 11 games started.

          • Big Mike

            He’s been swinging big. Has a bust and two incomplete’s to show for it. Floyd has to step up this year. But unless we get something on the other side, it’s going to be hard. Trubisky needs to make progress. I’m optimistic on both. More so on Trubisky. He has a better hand on his side right now. As it stands Floyd is just going to get washed out on every play until they get a rush threat on the other side.

            I agree with you that Edmunds fits his draft profile the first three years. Wouldn’t be a bad pick, could be a slam dunk. I do think Pace knows his target has shifted. Progress rebuilding the roster no longer buys time. He needs wins on the field. If he has less than 6 wins, He is on the hot seat in 2019. If he gets blown out twice by GB he is on the hot seat, if he goes 0-6 in the division he’s on the hot seat. If he’s not close to 500 at home he;s on the hot seat. So he might start drafting for this year.

            We’ll see.

          • Still sticking with 6 wins. Maybe 7 if Pace drafts well + relative healthy.

            I actually think the most athletic dynamic player might be Derwin James. For that reason, likely Pace’s #1 target.

            Edmunds and Davenport athletic projects (the latter would be a reach at #8, but that has never stopped Pace).

            Joshua Jackson (CB) is another player I think Pace covets.

            I’m still hoping for Billy Price in the 2nd. He’s pretty much a Long clone.

          • Big Mike

            Good points. I don’t think double digit sacks is the metric for Floyd. Combination of pressure, tackles for loss. Etc.

          • Irish Sweetness

            OLBS with double digits:

            Jones, Kerrigan, Suggs, Ingram, Miller.

          • I don’t think ONE double digit sack season in THREE yrs is too much to ask for a top 10 pick we traded UP for.

          • Big Mike

            It’s a great metric. But if he has 9 and 5 tackles for a loss, 3 tipped balls, an interception .. that was my point. It would also help if the other side of the line had someone else putting on pressure. But you’re right. At the same time if he takes a nice leap this year, I’m good. He was a project. Projects take longer. Also why I say let’s not jump at Edmunds. But if we do. Ok we have to wait even longer to see what he’s got. He’ll play in sub packages, won’t beat out Trevathan, Kwiatkowski or the next guy down the depth chart in yr 1.

          • Big Mike

            A very impressive group. So I think you’re agreeing with me that it’s not double digits or bust for Floyd.

          • Big Mike

            I’m a 7-9 wins guy. Not far off. I can’t tell if that’s my objective opinion, or if I can’t go into the season thinking no shot at .500. When I look at how the Bears are better than they were last year, run them through last year’s schedule there are at least 3 more winnable games. I know that’s a pointless exercise, but I prefer it to looking at this year’s schedule, because last year means nothing when it comes to predicting how good next year’s opponents are.

            Personally I think this is a break out year for the Bears. Do you realize they won 5 games, with an offensive scheme that was such a steaming pile of unprofessional shit that they had less 30 plays one game. Or that they lost a game without giving up a touchdown? Or that they came out of a bye week and got worse. Substantially worse and even more predictable. Last years offense from a game plan and adjustment perspective was DIII level. My 8th grade offensive has more variations in it.

            So there. 🙂

      • Agreed. I also dont think Pace will draft Nelson even if there.

        I predict he drafts Derywn James, Edmunds or a CB

  • AlbertInTucson

    “OF COURSE Francesa is dying to get back on the radio.”

    Sorry. WAY too many examples Francesa had become the “Willie Mays last season with the Mets” of sports talk.

    • CanadaBear

      I was never a Giants fan but watching Willie in the WS that year was sad.

      • AlbertInTucson

        Yep. “Too long at the fair” but, If I was a pro athlete, you’d have to drag me away from the game kicking and screaming, too.

        As it is, I played softball until I was 60, long after my skills had eroded, badly.

        It was hard to give up the comraderie of being part of a team.

        It’s also why I plan to hold on to my job which, often, is a team effort.

        Fortunately THOSE skills are still pretty much intact.

        • CanadaBear

          I agree about having to tear the uniform off, esp back then when they were making good money but nothing like today. I gave up on slow pitch softball in my 30’s. I was a pitcher and my reactions were no longer quick enough to insure my safety from 46 feet away from the plate. I had a ball go past my ear that I could hear and that convinced me to give it up. If that had been a few inches to the left, it would have been a bad, bad thing.

          I liked my job but working rotating 12.5 hour swing shifts was turning me into a very unhappy person by the time I hit 60. I lasted two more years and had to pull the plug. It was kind of a pisser because the money was great but I was hating life.

          • AlbertInTucson

            I have pretty much 8-5 hours and a lot of autonomy and bosses not you enough to be my children.

            Yeah, I finally hung up the gloves because the fear of injury began to outweigh the fun factor.

            When I retired for slo-pitch, the league I was in had instituted two lines on either side of the pitcher. To dicourage line shots at the pitcher, anything hit back thru those 2 lines, that wasn’t above the pitcher’s head, was not only an out, it ended that teams at bat.

            Crashing into fielders on the base paths was also verboten.

            Nobody came out tonight to get a ride in an ambulance.

          • Big Mike

            After football practice, our fields get turned over to young bucs 20-40 or so playing flag football. I call it the hamstring league. At least once a week, as I’m packing up, taking notes, talking to players/parents someone pulls up limp in the first 15-20 minutes. Especially when it cools down at night.

          • AlbertInTucson

            I could still swing the bat OK and run pretty good but the fielding skills were almost laughable.

            I began to fear something like a hammy or an achilles or a knee would just go “pop” one day and I didn’t/don’t need that.

          • SC Dave

            Willie Mays played his entire career before free agency. He probably needed the money.

        • Big Mike

          he needed the money…

          • AlbertInTucson

            So do I !

          • CanadaBear

            Apparently Willie was super hen pecked and his wife really liked spending the money.

          • Big Mike

            I hate hearing that.

          • CanadaBear

            I can’t remember who told the story during a game but it was really funny. Willie must have been super pussy whipped.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    What are the odds the Browns pick the wrong QB? I know we won’t know for a couple years but it is hard not to think they will pick the one QB that is awful in the NFL. To be fair, reports today say that they are really considering Mayfield, and I don’t like Mayfield at all.

    • BenderMcLugh

      I don’t get the non-love for Mayfield. He’s like Breez 2.0

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        He just rubs me the wrong way.

        • Which QB rubs you the right way?

          (NTTAWWT)

          • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

            Allen, he is so gentle, his hands are so soft….

          • KentuckyBearsFan

            Cade McNown. I had to file a restraining order against that bitch.

            Like all other Bears fans.

      • Juan Stone

        There are a lot of QB’a projected to go in the first round. There may be a huge crap on QB’a this year.

      • leftcoastdave

        One rap I heard was that he had great receivers going against sub-par dbs in the Big 12.

    • willbest

      93%

    • They should draft two w their history

      • willbest

        The wrong one will win at camp, the other one will Kurt Warner it up after they cut him

    • That Guy

      It’s the Browns. They could’ve picked Brady and Rodgers and they’d both be washed out of the league in 3 years.

      The Factory of Sadness grinds up QBs and destroys their will to live.

      I think they pull something really Browns-y. They take Barkley #1, then trade back further in the 1st and grab the last “decent” QB available… which will be Mayfield (Manziel 2.0) or Jackson (RGIII 2.0).

      Whomever it is, their pick will be concussed in Week 4, on IR by Week 12, a backup in 2019, and in the CFL by 2021.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    Oh no! Julio Jones deleted Falcons photos from Instagram. What is going to happen?

    • CanadaBear

      I’m on pins and needles!

    • He’s going to get traded to Pats supposedly

      • willbest

        Bradys last hurrah

  • evantonio

    Just had the chance to upgrade my season tickets. Moved from the 5 yard line to the 12ish yard line, row 35 to row 21.

    I know it’s good we don’t have Mike Glennon anymore, but I kinda wish we had him for another year or two so I could really improve my seats with everyone else jumping ship.

    • Just bring back Fox.

      You’ll be sitting next to the waterboy by 2019.

      • willbest

        Now that’s some high quality H2O

      • He could have been the waterboy

      • SC Dave

        Be realistic. 2021

      • evantonio

        a sacrifice i’m willing to make.

  • Just turned on NFLN since the season ended. Figured get last minute draft info.
    More of the same.
    However, Forte appeared! Talked a bit about how weird it felt showing up to Halas after some yrs to retire a Bear.

    He pointed out two HBs he likes (actually, the only two I liked outside Barkley)

    Michel. I think I mentioned him before but very smooth, explosive. Perfect for zone. I read that he had some medical questions, though obviously no one went into it. He may be the 2nd best HB behind Barkley. If his medicals make him fall to the 4rth, def great value (Jay Ajayi dropped some due to medicals too)

    2nd HB Forte mentioned was Ro Jo (Ronald Jones). HB from USC. A bit undersized, but Forte said that he can cut inside and backside, so again, great for zone. Needless to say, extremely explosive, though perhaps a bit undersized.

    Michel supposedly didn’t run the fastest 40, and Ro JO supposedly doesn’t have “elite” hands, but Forte mentioned that coming out of college, he didn’t run a fast 40, nor did he have elite hands.

    Just ran faster in real play, and his hands is something he worked on at the next level.

    Something he sees both these HBs can do.

    Anyways, thought I’d pass some Forte RB thoughts. Funny. I liked both of them too, but Ro Jo will be 2nd rder at latest, while Michel, who knows with the medicals. Something to keep an eye on.

  • leftcoastdave

    The 8 pick this year is tweener hell.
    With four potential QBs going off the board and the top three picks also likely off the board before having to settle for second tier. So unless there is competition for the #5 QB in the draft (ie. someone dropping?), then I think Pace pulls the trigger and trades up for Nelson (or preferably Chubb). That obviously depends on how it all shakes out, but there are enough teams ahead of da Bears wanting to trade down that I see that as the likely scenario with anybody other than the top 3 (Barkley, Chubb and Nelson) being big drop offs into a pool of ten others of equal talent.

    Two more days!!!!!!!

    • Russian Hacked Pacebot 2.0

      Huge drop off in talent? Hmmmm don’t know about that.

    • Pace aint trading up. If he does, it would have to be with like the Broncos at #5.

      And even then, it would have to be for Chubb cuz everyone else has the possibility of falling to #8.

      • Irish Sweetness

        He’ll get fleeced and flamed if he trades up for a guard …

        • leftcoastdave

          You mean like last year except it was for his QB?

      • leftcoastdave

        My hope remains trading down. Otherwise, I think it is DB like Denzel Ward at 8. I’d prefer Marcus Davenport a little lower on the board.

    • That Guy

      He’s not trading up, unless it involves only his 6th and/or 7th rounders–which aren’t enough to trade up in the 1st. I don’t think he’s so in love with any one guy in this draft that he sacrifices half of this draft (and/or a chunk of the next) for that guy.

      If he hadn’t taken Trubs last year, then yeah, he’d be the most likely guy to be trading up to land HIS QB in this draft. And maybe from that perspective, last year’s move was really smart. Because if he loved, say, Darnold, and wanted to guarantee he got HIS guy this year, he’d have to give up the farm to trade up high enough to get a lock on him.

  • Irish Sweetness

    As the day approaches, I think my main hope is just that Pace doesn’t do anything stupid.

    That includes trading up.

    To move from 6 to 3 the Jets gave up THREE second round picks. A 2nd pick for each spot!

    Don’t overthink it Pace. Sit pretty at 8, move down if you can and draft the same guy.

    • Ironically, perhaps the only draftee the fans were most hyped about was White.

      Floyd and Trub made a lot of fans feel wheezy.

  • KentuckyBearsFan

    I keep thinking seeing instinct on film is better than combine.

    Peanut?

    Holy ****. That was instinct and determination.

    Same as Urlacher.

    I start a war with only a young Lach on my side.

    Sideline to sideline.

  • Bob Doll

    I think Pace has a bunch of options. Some mock a certain Fitzpatrick or Ward to the Bears, but that would surprise me. Besides how many QB’s are taken in front of the Bears, the other player I’m listening for is Fitzpatrick…if someone grabs him in the top 7 that would be a boon for the Bears.

    I just don’t think there is any way to mess this one up…if a bunch of QBs go in front of the Bears, they are going to have their pick of Edmunds, Smith and maybe Nelson…all great picks, imo. If that doesn’t happen then that sets the Bears up wonderfully for a trade down…I normally don’t like that but there are some top notch WR(DJ Moore), OL(Hernandez) and Pass rush (Landry) to be had later in the first or second rounds.

    My poor man’s mock draft has either Edmunds or Smith in the first round and Hernandez in the second…I would not be at all disappointed with Nelson in the first or DJ Moore in the second though. My hope is that the Bears do not select a safety or cornerback in the first two rounds…Needs dictate interior OL, Edge Rush, LB and WR; not necessarily in that order.

    • algonquinmatt

      I agree that the Bears do not ‘need’ a safety or corner in the first two rounds, but i would not be disappointed at all if they took Derwin James or Fitzpatrick.

    • I like Hernandez, but he is more of a power than a zone blocker.
      I also think he’ll be gone by our 2nd

      I’m not enamored w Fitzpartick. He’s a FS. We have Jackson.
      He can be a CB but i dont think that’s his natural position.

  • algonquinmatt

    If i can trade down, i’m trading down. Pace says he likes 8 players at the 8 spot? Math says that if the 4 QB’s are gone, that one of those is there at 12…and most likely lower than that, as anyone trading up is probably doing it to draft a QB.

    Too many needs. Edge, LB, O-line, depth in the defensive backfield, WR.. we need more picks. If you can get a bonafide starter out of your trade down spot in the 1st, trade down.

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