94 Comments

Data Entry: Breaking Down Trubisky’s Interceptions

| January 23rd, 2018

In his rookie season, Mitch Trubisky got to play 12 games and throw the ball 330 times. In those 330 attempts, he threw 7 interceptions, which is actually pretty good. That rate – an interception on 2.1% of his throws – was 12th best in the NFL among qualified passers, ahead of established veterans like Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers.

As that list above shows, there’s more to being a good quarterback than simply not throwing interceptions. But avoiding interceptions is an important part of a quarterback’s job; in no small part because they can be game-changing plays that make it a lot harder to win.

But not all interceptions are created equal. Sometimes it’s the quarterback’s fault, sometimes it’s on the wide receiver, and sometimes it’s hard to tell. In general, I think you can group them all into one of four categories:

  1. Bad decision. These are throws that should never be made because the receiver isn’t open and a defender has a good chance at an interception. Bears fans have seen plenty of these in the last 8 years from balls being chucked up into double or triple coverage.
  2. Bad throw. The target is open, but the pass is off target. The problem here comes not in the choice to throw but in the throw itself.
  3. Miscommunication. The quarterback thinks the wide receiver is running one route, the wide receiver runs another route, and the defensive back is the beneficiary.
  4. Receiver error. The receiver is open, the pass is good, but the ball bounces off of the target’s hands and gets intercepted.

The first two are both the fault of the quarterback, though in very different ways. The third one makes it pretty much impossible for us to assign fault. The last one is the fault of the target.

Let’s look more closely at each one of Trubisky’s 7 interceptions to see which of these categories they fall into, and then consider what we can learn from all 7 together. Special hat tip to Ted Van Green for this idea, and for the fabulous Marcus D for providing all of the gifs. If you’re a fan of Chicago sports, you should definitely follow Marcus on Twitter, as he puts out gif highlights all the time.

Interception #1

Situation: Game tied at 17, 2:32 left in 4th quarter, 1st and 10 at the Bears’ 10 yard line.

What happened: In Trubisky’s first start, he had a chance to lead a game-winning drive and got a little too excited. The very first play saw him force a pass to a well-covered Zach Miller that never should have been thrown. A best-case scenario saw that ball fall incomplete, while there was a strong chance of an interception the whole way.

This is simply an awful decision by Trubisky, especially since the game is tied. The worst thing to do is turn it over and hand the Vikings a win. It was only first down too. Trubisky should have learned a valuable lesson on this one: live to fight another play.

Verdict: Bad decision

Interception #2

Situation: Bears down 8, 1:22 left in the 4th quarter, 2nd and 15 at the Saints’ 48 yard line.

What happened: Trubisky’s 2nd interception also came late in the game while he was trying to make a play, although this time the Bears were trailing instead of tied. Tre McBride, Trubisky’s intended target, is open, but Trubisky sails the pass, and the defender behind the play easily intercepts it.

I have zero issues with throwing this pass, the problem is in the accuracy. That will be a repeated issue in several of these plays.

Verdict: Bad throw

Interception #3

Situation: Bears down 7, 6:03 left in the 1st quarter, 1st and 10 from the Bears’ 40 yard line.

What happened: Trubisky’s 1st read on the play is clearly Dontrelle Inman, who he targets here on a curl. Trubisky is staring him down the whole time and releases the ball quickly, before Inman has turned (which is necessary on a timing route like this). Inman turns inside, and Trubisky’s throw looks like he thought Inman was turning the other way. The pass is tipped by Inman, making it an easy interception.

I don’t love this throw into semi-traffic, but if Inman and Trubisky had been on the same page it would have either been a contested catch or incomplete. Trubisky either missed the throw wide or there was a miscommunication. Kudos to the offense for forcing a fumble and getting the Bears the ball back.

Verdict: Miscommunication/bad throw

Interception #4

Situation: Bears down 28, 2:22 left in the 4th quarter, 1st and 10 from the Eagles’ 32 yard line.

What happened: Trubisky moves around in the pocket under pressure before attempting a throw to Markus Wheaton. Due to the pressure, the ball comes out a split second later than it should, and Trubisky doesn’t have a chance to set his feet and step into it, which puts the throw behind the target for an easy interception.

Wheaton was more open a half second before this pass got thrown, but an accurate pass here is either caught or incomplete at worst. This is solely on poor accuracy by Trubisky, the second time we’ve seen that on an interception.

Verdict: Bad throw

Interception #5

Situation: Bears down 10, 14:22 left in the 3rd quarter, 2nd and 8 at the Bears’ 22 yard line.

What happened: Rolling left, Trubisky sails a pass to a wide open Kendall Wright. The ball flies over his head right to the waiting defensive back.

Throwing across your body on the run is the hardest thing for a quarterback to do, but you have to miss anywhere but long in this case. Again we see accuracy issues plaguing Trubisky.

Verdict: Bad throw

Interception #6

Situation: Bears down 17, 13:40 left in 4th quarter, 3rd and goal from the 5.

What happened: Trubisky tries to get a pass to Dontrelle Inman in the back of the end zone, but ends up throwing it right to a waiting defensive back in front of him. I’m guessing Trubisky simply didn’t realize the safety was there. This is a throw you absolutely cannot make.

Verdict: Bad decision

Interception #7

Situation: Bears down 10, 0:34 left in the 4th quarter, 1st and 10 from the Lions’ 25 yard line.

What happened: This is another timing route that Trubisky throws before his target (Daniel Brown this time) turns. And again we see Brown turn inside while Trubisky throws like he thought Brown would turn outside. In this case, I’m pretty sure Trubisky was correct, as the defender is inside of Brown, but maybe the route called for the inside and Trubisky just missed the throw.

Either way, Brown wasn’t exactly wide open, but NFL windows are tight, and this should have been a contested catch or incompletion if Brown and Trubisky were on the same page.

Verdict: Miscommunication/bad throw

Takeaways

I have a few thoughts:

  • Trubisky generally didn’t force the ball this year. His 7 interceptions went to 6 different targets, and only 2 were throws that shouldn’t have been made. That’s a good sign to see from a rookie. He’s already pretty good at not chucking balls into double or triple coverage hoping to beat it with a perfect throw.
  • We also see this in when the interceptions came. 5 of the 7 were in the 4th quarter, with 4 of those coming within the last 3 minutes of the game. Trubisky was very careful with the ball this year until he was forced to play more aggressively. This can be fairly seen as both a positive and a negative, and might change going forward as he hopefully works with a more aggressive coach.
  • Accuracy is an issue. At least 3 of the interceptions (and up to 5) came from Trubisky simply missing throws to open receivers. He missed plenty of passes that weren’t intercepted too. Accuracy wasn’t an issue from what I saw of Trubisky’s college tape, so I don’t think this is a problem that will hang around long term. But it is something that needs to be addressed, and I hope Trubisky is working long and hard on his footwork this offseason.
  • Side note: with the Bears seemingly poised to implement a West Coast/spread offense predicated on wide receivers consistently gaining yards after the catch, accuracy will be even more important. It will be vital for Trubisky to consistently put the ball in a spot that lets his targets make an easy catch in stride so they can quickly get up the field.
  • Option routes are dangerous. The Bears started implementing these down the stretch with Trubisky, but they require both the quarterback and the wide receiver to read the defense and come to the same conclusion about what the receiver should do in short order. We saw two instances here where it appears that didn’t happen, leading to interceptions, and there were several more that led to incomplete passes. I particularly seem to recall this being a repeated issue when targeting tight end Daniel Brown late in the season (such as in the last interception above), though I have no hard proof to back that up. These types of routes will likely continue being utilized in Chicago’s new offense, so hopefully Trubisky and his target will be able to get on the same page more frequently as Trubisky matures and the targets around him improve.

What are your thoughts about Trubisky’s interceptions? Let me know in the comments below.

Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

  • SC Dave

    Interesting analysis, and backs up my “gut” about them. Mostly just not throwing the ball straight.

    • Yeah Howard has some difficulty catching, but once the ball is in his hands he’s very dangerous.

      • Irish Sweetness

        Nigel has difficulty in taking off and landing … but once he’s up there he’s fine.

  • Scharfinator

    What about the 5th reason for an interception – the defense makes a play?

    EDIT: I guess with Trub’s INTs this season, they don’t fall into that realm. No one handed INT’s or batted balls at LOS.

    • yeah, that’s fair. Those happen too. But all of Trubisky’s pretty much fell into one of three categories: bad decision, bad pass, miscommunication.

  • Jokey

    This year’s best post! I agree with the conclusions, and I think once the game slows down half a tick for TB, we’ll see fewer picks. Although a new offense and system will reset some of his progress, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect otherwise.

    • I actually think his INT % could go up a tick next year as he takes a few more risks, but that’s ok. The TD rate needs to at least double, so that might come with a few more INTs, at least at first, and still be a win.

      • SC Dave

        Yes, the 2.1% TD rate was rather abysmal. A double *might* get up to the league average.

        • League average in 2017 based on all QBs who played was 4.2%. That bumps to 4.3% if you only look at the 32 qualified passers (220+ attempts).

          So basically, yeah, he needs to double to hit league average.

  • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

    Interesting…. Only 1 INT in the 1st half.

    • You can really see just how much coaches drilled no turnovers into him, often to the detriment of making plays, IMO. Risk avoidance is priority #1 for Fox.

      • CanadaBear

        Always. His basic premise was much like Lovie’s, play super conservative, hope to win the TO battle and win a close one. Great in theory, not so great if your lineup sucks moose wang.

      • Irish Sweetness

        Yet he put him in positions of 3rd and long consistently, and then consistently passed, increasing risk to an absolute maximum, so that’s not true.

        Fox ramped up the risk – not only for fumbles on first and second down, but for interceptions and freedom-to-blitz on third downs.

    • SC Dave

      More interesting to me is that the majority (4) occurred on 1st down, and only one was on 3rd or later.

      Obviously, “run, run, pass, punt” caused that, eh?

      • evantonio

        hush your mouth. the bears passed 4 times on first down all season, and look what happened! no wonder they’re RRPPunt.

      • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

        The “run, run, pass” has basis in truth, otherwise it would not have been a topic around here. The “run, run, pass” arguments were also more about predictability. More often than not running in obvious run downs, running out of specific formations, and also only passing out of specific formations. Everyone and their idiot brother could sit and watch and tell if they were going to run or pass based on their formations and be successful 90% of the time. Hell I would bet BearDown and Catfish were able to predict whether they were running or passing.

  • BearDown100393

    Acquire competent receivers and then worry about interceptions.

  • CanadaBear

    The only one that really got my attention was the first one. He was totally suckered into throwing that pick by Harrison. Rookie mistake! For me, his accuracy would leave him when he got flustered. With more good coaching and better personnel, that shouldn’t be an issue going forward. Just has to get his footwork/mechanics straightened out. I saw more guys hit in stride by MT in 12 games than from Cutler in all those years.

    • Yep, that was in his first start. He said after the game he’d learn from it, and to his credit he seemingly did. Didn’t really force a pass that was intercepted the rest of the year. His only other “WTF would you throw that” INT came when he simply didn’t see the safety.

      Though I do recall a few weeks later he had one that he tried to drop in to Miller between two defenders and should never have been thrown. Fortunately that one was incomplete instead of picked off.

      • CanadaBear

        Unless a QB has a really unlucky year, I never count the dropped INT’s against them. That happens to every QB. To me that was always a crutch to use against a TO machine or to use in an argument the other way.

  • CanadaBear

    Don’t know how many of you guys watch Sunday Night Baseball but Aaron Boone left the booth to become the Yankees mgr. His replacement is A-Rod! That should be interesting.

    • AlbertInTucson

      Not an A-Rod fan but, I have to admit, he was better than adequate the few times I saw him doing studio shows.

      • CanadaBear

        That’s where I’m at with him. I find him reprehensible but if he’s a decent announcer …

        • AlbertInTucson

          He replaced Aaron Boone for color analyst. I think Mendoza stays. They used a 3 person announce team. I like Schulman’s work on PBP.

          • CanadaBear

            I wonder who the play by play person will be or will Jessica handle that and they go with a 2-person booth?

          • AlbertInTucson

            I assume they stay with 3 people.

          • CanadaBear

            That’s what I thought. Surprised they haven’t named Schulman’s replacement. I thought they did a nice job on games last year. I liked all of them and Boone was always a good sport about being the butt of jokes. Self deprecating humor goes a long ways.

      • A-Rod graduated from my HS, though it was before I was there (he graduated in 2006, I moved to Miami and started at that school in 2000).

        They used to brag about that. Not so much anymore. Plenty of people when I was a student had stories about him being a douchebag when he came back to visit after being drafted. Basically he ignored “regular” people and only wanted to see his baseball coach, and would only interact with/sign autographs for baseball players. A few other stories I’m more familiar with:

        -He married his high school sweetheart, and the school did a big feature about it in their alumni magazine. In it he said the usual thing about loving her because she loved him before he was famous, and he would always love her and be with her. The next month it came out he had been cheating on her with Madonna. That always made me laugh.

        -He wanted to donate money for a new baseball field (which they didn’t need), and they asked him to use it for classrooms instead (which they desperately needed). He refused and basically has had nothing to do with the school since. Donated the $$ to University of Miami instead, and they named the field after him. That’s where he was going to go to college, but he went pro instead after being the #1 pick (good call).

        -He transferred to my high school from another one after his freshman season because the coach there told him he wasn’t good enough to play (three years later he was the #1 pick. What a great coach, huh?). The legend (though never confirmed) is that the coach told him to take up ping pong instead, and that there was a ping pong table delivered to that coach’s door the day after ARod was drafted #1.

        • CanadaBear

          Good stuff. He’s a legendary egomaniac, douchebag (the only thing I ever witnessed was Cameron Diaz feeding him popcorn at the Super Bowl). If he’s a good announcer is all I really care about. It’s true in all sports broadcasts but esp true in baseball that announcers with no chemistry will kill ya.

        • AlbertInTucson

          Like I said, I was never a fan.

        • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

          Why would anybody cheat on anybody with Madonna? That thing would have to echo and howl in the wind by now.

          • CanadaBear

            Even at her absolute hottest, she never really did anything for me. If I want to be bossed around, I’ll go back to work!

          • Bender McLugh

            kegel exercises do wonders my man

          • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

            Probably not after the Dennis Rodman Era.

          • Bender McLugh

            lol. No. Amount.

        • I still remember reading a story about him which revealed everything I needed to know about him.

          Apparently a reporter was going to do an interview with him.

          For some reason, it ended up being at midnight at his hotel room.

          Ok. No problem reporter thought.

          Goes up to A-rod’s room at midnight, door opens, there’s A-rod in a tux.

          OK. Odd. Reporter figures he’s going to a gala or something.

          Nope.

          A-rod for some reason just decided to wear a tux for the interview (keep in mind, no cameras).

          There’s something eerie about that.

          Later when all that stuff broke about him, I wasn’t surprised.

          In a lot of ways, I pity pro athletes.

          They’re trained to be robots. They’re not allowed to do the usual shinangans a lot of do when growing up.

          They’re pressured by coaches and “adults” who see them as their lottery ticket.

          That’s a lot to put on anyone.

          It’s like the Michael Jackson syndrome, or kid star track.

          Eventually, most crack like Tiger.

          They’re better off just adopting the Charles Barkley mantra.

          I am not a role model.

          I am not superman or some android

          Fuck off.

        • “Modestly” Huge Bears Penis

          How could A-Rod graduate in 2006 when he his rookie year in MLB was 1994?

    • BearDown100393

      Honestly had no idea that was still on the air.

  • BearDown100393

    Positive: Not one interception thrown with the Bears in the lead.

    Negative: Not one interception thrown with the Bears in the lead.

    • That requires you throwing with the Bears in the lead.

      82 of Trubisky’s 330 pass attempts came with Bears in the lead.

      36 when tied-1 INT

      211 when trailing – 6 INT

      That adds up to 329, he had 330. Not sure where that lost play is from (I used game play tracker to sort by situation)

      • Also interesting: tied or with the lead, they had basically an even split of called runs or called passes (passes + sacks + QB runs, which were mostly scrambles).

        Trailing, that shifted to 68% called pass plays.

        So the 50/50 split is basically what they ideally wanted.

        • SC Dave

          But wait!!

          Everyone *knows* it was run, run, pass, punt! I heard it right here hundreds of times!

          • That was the case in Trubisky’s first 4 games. I’ve already debunked on here that it was not the case after the bye.

          • SC Dave

            I know. That was targeted at the people that *still* write that.

      • I’m pondering where that missing 1 pass went to.

        I feel like it’s a zen koan

        What is not a win, tie or loss?

        Ooooohmmmm

  • BerwynBomber

    Not a concern. So far. More about production, especially in the RZ.

    Frankly I am a little dubious of every QB trying to duplicate Brady or Rodgers when it comes to limiting their INT totals. (Note: Rodgers’ was only out of whack this year because he tossed three INTs in a game for the first time in ten years.)

    I’d much rather see a young QB develop high-end production first and limit mistakes as he becomes more seasoned.

    Even a guy like Cutler, who was a natural turnover machine, seemed to get spooked by his INTs his last few years and started to play cuck ball (though some of that was also due to Gase’s strategy in ’15). Game manager Cutty was not a natural look for him, IMV.

    If a kid becomes the next Brady or Rodgers, well hey, send their credentials to Canton. But if given a choice between an Alex Smith type vs. a Philip Rivers type, the former might not be superior even if turns the ball over less.

  • evantonio

    i’ll take 20 INTs if they come with 48 TDs.

    i won’t take them if they come with 20 TDs.

    • CanadaBear

      Exactly. 2 to 1 minimum.

      • evantonio

        i wouldn’t mind that good old 14:1 ratio Mr. Foles had.

        • Heidi

          Google is giving to new employee 99 dollars/h to complete small jobs onnet .. Labor for few peroid of time in a day & stay more time together with your friends … You can also join this job…last Thursday I bought a gorgeous Aston Martin DB5 after I been earnin $7934 this-past/five weeks .it is truly the easiest-work however you would not forgive yourself if you do not take a look at it.!ox692g:➫➫➫ http://GoogleNewEnergyPartTImeJobs/computer/jobs ♥x♥s♥♥b♥♥z♥♥a♥♥y♥♥n♥♥b♥o♥♥a♥u♥♥h♥♥♥f♥♥♥j♥♥p♥o♥♥z♥♥♥o♥♥b♥♥m♥♥♥b♥m♥♥♥f♥♥z♥o:::::!aw961d:lhuh

  • evantonio

    ESPN Insiders redrafted last year’s draft. In a surprising turn of events, they have us picking MT #3.

    • KentuckyBearsFan

      Getting MT saved Pace’s job. Otherwise, Glennon and Sanchez would have finished out the season with the team having no real plans for the future besides drafting a quarterback. And Fox still would have been fired.

      • CanadaBear

        That’s what I said after everyone seemed so shocked they took a QB. All the signs were there but everyone was salivating over all the other great position players available @ 3.

        • Bender McLugh

          I was one salivating for the two safeties Adams & Hooker. I work in computers and don’t run an NFL team. Good thing.

          • CanadaBear

            It’s not like I know anything about college ball but all the signs were there, people just weren’t looking. I swear some of the guys like all the draft/FA stuff more than the games. Nothing against anybody. Different strokes.

          • Irish Sweetness

            Fournette looked like a stud to the casuals like me who only look at highlights – but with RBs, WYSIWYG.

            That’s why guys like Pace intrigue me – how do you pass up a surefire stud for a QB with 9 starts? With Gummo on board we were guaranteed a top pick in 2018.

          • CanadaBear

            Because they had nothing at QB and already had a good RB.

          • You weren’t alone, Bender.

            I wanted Hooker (barring his knees were not spaghitti). He looked like DROY , then of course, he got hurt.

            I’ll give Pace credit for his Eddie Jackson find.

            Drafting a guy with a metal rod already in his leg took som chutzpah.

          • Irish Sweetness

            Question:

            How did Obi do this season? Anyone? Or Desmond King?

          • Irish Sweetness

            Drafting a safety that high would be an NFL first?

        • Yeah, I started coming around to the Biggsy QB thought as draft approached.

          I basically had to stop thinking how I would draft, and start thinking how a Pacebot would draft.

          And Pacebot algorithm was obvious: 1001010101

          (QB)

      • evantonio

        The re-draft is an exercise in “what should each team have done?” And in this re-draft, they have us picking him at 3 instead of 2.

        That’s what I was getting at.

        • Bender McLugh

          right right, but that also assumes no one is looking to trade up etc……ad nauseum this topic is

      • It’s hard to say.

        the think tank hired Fox.

        Pace was essentially an accomplice, but he was riding shotgun more than driving that Gremlin.

        I think Pace was always promised a chance to hire his own HC.

        and it would’ve made perfect sense for him to stick in 18 and draft his QB and hire his coach, which is ideal.

        True, MAYBE the McCaskeys look for another GM, but if they saddled him Fox, then asking him to win the olympic 100 meter swim with a carcass on his back isn’t all that fair.

        • Irish Sweetness

          Pace saddled us with an 18 million dollar Gummo though.

          There is no rationale where that is okay. Cannot be. He said we’d be good with Gummo/Sanchize. How do we trust someone like that?

          • I don’t trust him. I called him a “bridge GM” as Fox was supposed to dig us out of the Trestman era, Pace was supposed to dig us out of the Emery era.

            Neither really did, or only incrementally.

            I was OK with replacing Pace this offseason if a sure fire guy with a better resume came along. But who was that?

            Don’t matter about his blowing $18M cap anyways, Irish.

            Pace is a tight ass.

            It’s not as if he was going to sing Poe or Baker or Authur Brown with that extra cap.

      • Irish Sweetness

        Scenario #2:

        Pace hired Gummo/Sanchize. Pace drafts Fournette. Pace drafts an OT in the 2nd (like he should have).

        We end the season with a shitty record, a primo back and a top back, and a full complement of picks for this year’s draft and a shot at a good QB.

        But I don’t see how trading up for MT keeps his job for him, in fact, giving up the extra picks needlessly is a good indicator of being insane in the membrane.

        In fact, if Watson didn’t blow out his knee and continued having a stellar year, Pace looks like an idiot for sure.

  • John F

    Let’s take a look at Trubisky’s season:

    Completion percentage (59.4%) – 27th of 32
    TD % (2.1%) – 31st of 32
    Yards/Attempt (6.6) – 25th of 32
    Yards/Completion (11.2) – 21st of 32
    Yards/Game (182.8) – 28th of 31
    QB Rating (77.5) – 28th of 32
    Sack % (8.6%) – 31st of 34

    Well, at least he didn’t throw a lot of interceptions!

    • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

      BUST!!!! CUT HIM!!!!

      • John F

        Not a bust, but certainly below average this year.

        May improve to average in future years.

        • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

          Context is extremely important to keep in mind when looking at these numbers if you’re trying to project what Trubisky may or may not become in future years. The kid was handed a shit sandwich.

    • Should check out Eli and Peyton’s rookie yr stats.

      Peyton. 56%. 28INts

      https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm

      Eli. 48%. 9 INTs (in 10 games)

      https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannEl00.htm

      To go along with a COMBINED 4 wins between them.

      And they weren’t handicapped by Fox and Wheaton, etc

      Jury still out on Trub, but I’d still rather have him than Watson, Mahomes or Kizer.

      Though I’m also on record for needing to wait for this yr’s batch of QBs.

      • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

        Hubster yesterday declaring this year’s QB class has a lot of names but big questions with each one.

        • Most QB prospects do indeed come with drawbacks. Luck, Cams, Petyons are few and far between.

          But if one were to group the 17 and 18 class together objectively, Trubisky would no doubt be behind Darnold and Rosen, so he’d be the THIRD best QB in this class (at best).

          And many more would argue that Mayfield, Rudolph and Josh Allen (not to mention those who always preferred Watson) should also be ahead of Trub.

          In other words, Trub could have realistically been the EIGHTH best QB prospect in this draft.

          I doubt we’d have to trade up even at 8.

          That’s just the way I see it.

          Personally, I think Darnold is a sure thing in spite of the avg yr.

          Rosen might be a smidgen ahead. He reminds me of Goff.

          The rest I would clump into Trub tier. Just a matter of taste and gut.

          As Rummel would grumble…lots of known, lots of unknowns, lots of known unknowns or how ever the fuck that goes…

          • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

            All possibly true. Also gotta wonder what Trubisky would have done with another season of college ball. Wonder where that would slot him with this year’s class.

            Also means he was pretty damn smart to come out last year.

      • John F

        Peyton/Eli had SIGNIFICANTLY more productive college careers and that could be projected out to more certain NFL success.

        Watson is way better than Trub, Kizer probably worse, Mahomes is an unknown but was much more productive in college (as was Watson).

        • Yes, but in spite of their prolific college careers, they still SUCKED their rook yrs.

          And as we all know (Ahem, Tebus, Sanchize, Leaf…) college success is not a great indicator of NFL success.

          I think we all knew Watson was more NFL ready than Trub.

          But his biggest knock was being able to stay healthy, and surprise surprise, his other ACL gave out.

          Watson also had Fuller and Hopkins. We have NO ONE even close to either.

          Watson would literally just throw it to a double covered Hopkins or Fuller and they’d come down with it.

          That helps.

          Not having to play from behind helps.

          Not being in a predictable 3rd and 9 helps.

          I think Watson will be fine, but I also think he’s going to be INJ more often than not, whether it’s his knee, groin, ankles…it’s always gonna be something.

    • Irish Sweetness

      Now make all other QBs have to throw, and only throw … on 3rd and long.

      Compare numbers then.

  • Excellent work, Data.

    Love the vids to go along with the analysis, so we can see the exact context.

    My biggest question mark from my own college ‘scouting reporter’ still remains:

    Is Trub clutch?

    Does he have the “IT” factor to pull out wins late with games on the line?

    He simply didn’t have enough college starts to determine either way.

    Some would argue that Stanford game showed he was clutch, but his receivers dropped about 4 game winning passes.

    But again, that was only one game.

    So far after roughly a yr in the NFL, he hasn’t really shown that. Whether you want to blame that on Fox or the clown shoes Pace provided for him at WR, or the ravaged Oline, etc, fact is, although he’s made a few key runs and throws to keep drives alive, he hasn’t had that Watson moment yet.

    But perhaps the more concerning part is his accuracy.

    Coming into the NFL, his accuracy (or arm) was never in question.

    In PS he looked extremely sharp.

    Then he played against the big boys, and his accuracy is all over the place.

    59.% is Orton-esque. That will not do.

    He needs to get at least to 62% in the second yr, as well as more TDs.

    Period. End of story.

    One could blame his footwork for the inconsistency, but as we ALL should painfully know, that’s not an automatic fix (Cutler 12 yrs later still does that backpeddling INT throw).

    When the shit hits the fan, QBs revert to their instinct.

    And if Bisquits instinct is to throw with crazy feet, then expect a lot more sailed/late passes to go for INTs.

    But, hopefully this time around, our QB CAN learn and not repeat the same bozo mistakes with the help of a real offensive HC/OC and some weapons.

    • John F

      If you watch his throws last year he:

      – fell off to the left and right (mostly left) on the majority of his throws
      – often threw when his feet were parallel to the line of scrimmage (instead of perpendicular)
      – often threw with an arm angle about 45 degrees from the top (should be straight up and down)
      – had happy feet (this is common for rookies)
      – often locked his front knee upon release which affected accuracy (he did this in college too)

      None of this was corrected over the 12 games he played.

      • I agree. I don’t think Trub has Brady robot mechanics (then again, who does?) to help his accuracy.

        Something he def has to fix, and to his credit, he’s been aware of his sloppy footwork since PS. Said that’s the #1 area he’s been drilling.

        That being said, it’s rare for a QB to be like Drago-Brady.

        More often than not, they’re moved from their spot or dealing with a dirty pocket which makes them have to move (or run) reset their feet and throw from whatever angle is needed even if it’s sidearm.

        Plenty of good QBs like Vadgers, Wilson, Wentz, etc get away with it.

        Nevertheless, Trub is nowhere near their cerebral level, so he doesn’t know quite yet when to stand in there and be Brady, and when to bolt and improv.

        Maybe he learns that. Maybe this coaching staff does what no one could with Cargo and fixes those mechanical issues.

        Or maybe he’s hardwired that way, and will always be frustratingly inaccurate.

        Dunno yet.

        I hated Fox and don’t underestimate the anal holocoust which he was.

        Look at Fisher.

        Once freed from him both Keenum and Foles took it to another level, and neither have the raw potential of Trub

        So I’m hoping the new regime will chisel him properly.

      • Irish Sweetness

        I wonder if anyone has tied his legs together with string yet.

    • leftcoastdave

      “In PS he looked extremely sharp. Then he played against the big boys, and his accuracy is all over the place.”

      Yup. The biggest leap is in reading the D. Also he still had Cam in preseason who he had thrown to before. Afterward? Josh Bellamy became his go to guy.

      (I love Josh Bellamy. Great special teamer and now he’s getting used to those hand transplants he got last year in the off season.)

      Next season Trubisky will be throwing to dudes whose first names he knows and it will be out of a nice and newly designed RPO/spread with quick reads and targets he can choose to throw to quickly, or not, and Jordan Howard being the R option in an other than stacked box.

      • Yes, but Trub sailing passes or throwing balls behind WRs has little to do with talent.

        Has to do with his mechanics, or his ability to handle pressure and still throw lasers.

        Trub hit some dimes that the Daltons of the NFL never would be able to. As Gruden would say, right in the turkey hole.

        He also has looked like Tebus on other throws.

        Gotta hope that’s just the give and take of being a rook and not his fundamental nature.

        • leftcoastdave

          Not just “being a rook” but a rook who never had time with his receivers and was thrown into the fire unprepared.

          If he does not perform next year four games into the season, we’ve got something to talk about.

    • WP4Life

      Third down throw for a 1st at ravens for fg to win game. First time rooke won there in 9 years. Yeah he has it. The problem is(has) been the only one.

  • Malice Halice

    Growing pains that’s all. Yea most of em we’re bad throws and I’m fuckin glad that he only threw 1 INT on 3rd down. Meaning, during the most pressure (on 3rd down) even when we were trailing he didn’t fuck up BUT he threw 4 INT on 1st which does give me the impression he was being more aggressive but when he EXPECTED blitz n shit on 3rd down he only fucked up once so I believe we have an intelligent QB for his resume. Mitchell will be all-pro next year if we compliment him with a talented EXPERIENCED WR. FUCK FUCK n ABSOLUTELY FUCK our entire WR Corp! Keep Cam but I want 2 NEW savages! Landry n ?

    • leftcoastdave

      Equanimious St. Brown.

      • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

        The name alone is worthy of an early draft slot.

  • Malice Halice

    Oh n by the way fellas I been talkin MAD SHIT to these viqueens fan. Such an embarrassment of a franchise. ALL their playoff losses are such SAD losses. Damn that franchise is fucked. That was their last shot cuz DA BEARS IS BACK BABY!

  • willbest
  • Heidi

    Google is giving to new employee 99 dollars/h to complete small jobs onnet .. Labor for few peroid of time in a day & stay more time together with your friends … You can also join this job…last Thursday I bought a gorgeous Aston Martin DB5 after I been earnin $7934 this-past/five weeks .it is truly the easiest-work however you would not forgive yourself if you do not take a look at it.!ox692g:➫➫➫ http://GoogleNewEnergyPartTImeJobs/computer/jobs ♥x♥s♥♥b♥♥z♥♥a♥♥y♥♥n♥♥b♥o♥♥a♥u♥♥h♥♥♥f♥♥♥j♥♥p♥o♥♥z♥♥♥o♥♥b♥♥m♥♥♥b♥m♥♥♥f♥♥z♥o:::::!aw961d:lhu

© Da' Bears Blog