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Divisional Round Prediction Haikus

| January 19th, 2024


All times ET. Home team in CAPS.


Saturday 4:30 PM – Texans at RAVENS (-9)

A battle wages

in the land of McNulty.

The game is the game.


Saturday 8:15 PM – Packers at NINERS (-9.5)

Cover your damn eyes.

Green Bay can beat ANYONE.

They will keep this close.


Sunday 3:00 PM – Bucs at LIONS (-6)

One city makes cars.

One city is all strip clubs.

Baker be dancin’.


Sunday 6:30 PM – Chiefs at BILLS (-3)

My head says Mahomes.

But my heart is in New York,

drenched in Elmo’s sauce.


Last week the picks were 2-4 but in fairness I picked the Steelers expecting them to cover in a blizzard. This week I’m on Baltimore -9, Packers +9.5, Bucs +6, Bills -3.

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Jags Drop the Ball, Bills Don’t Show Up: Divisional Round Thoughts

| January 23rd, 2023


Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20

Four mistakes.

Four mistakes cost the Jaguars a remarkable trip to the AFC Championship Game.

  • They dropped an easy Chad Henne interception that would have likely been returned for a touchdown.
  • Christian Kirk dropped a beautiful Trevor Lawrence deep shot that Cris Collinsworth inexplicably described as “overthrown.” (Collinsworth’s praising of Patrick Mahomes during this game became comical at times. Throws into the ground were being called brilliant.)
  • Jamal Agnew let the kicker tackle him on a return when he was coasting into the open field. Every return man will tell you that the kicker can NEVER be the tackler.
  • Agnew committed an unforced fumble, with the Jags driving for a score, down ten, just over five minutes to go.

A dissertation could be written about the Jaguar approach to Travis Kelce but even with the tight end’s dominant performance, Jacksonville should have won this ballgame. They didn’t. Because of four mistakes.


Eagles 38, Giants 7

It’s not surprising the Eagles won. It is a bit surprising that the Giants – who have been defined lately by their grit – were completely toothless. I came away from this snooze of a game with three thoughts.

  • I don’t remember a more difficult evaluation than Daniel Jones and I don’t envy Joe Schoen in the coming weeks. Jones is clearly a starting quarterback in the NFL but is he an upper echelon starting QB? Do upper echelon starting quarterbacks pitch quarterback ratings of 53 in the postseason? Would Jones accept a contract in the Kirk Cousins realm: short-term and fully guaranteed? Three years, $75 million?
  • The Vikings were the hollowest 13-game winner in the history of the NFL.
  • Did the Eagles even need Robert Quinn? They have pass rush coming from every direction and that’s going to make them incredibly difficult to beat in their building next week. Folks are fond of saying the Niners have the best roster in the sport. The Eagles have a real argument.

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Divisional Round Gambling Guide!

| January 21st, 2022

Atlantic City at 40 (Original Photo)


Last week, the guide was actually about gambling (i.e., trying to make money) and my slips in Atlantic City proved that advice to be solid. This week, I’m going to try and nail all eight general bets. That’s every spread and every over/under. Will I achieve that? Of course not. But it’s a worthy endeavor.

As always, all lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.


Saturday

4:30 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – Over/Under 47

  • Has a number one seed ever received less attention than Tennessee? They’re the least sexy team remaining but they’re also one that hasn’t been at full strength in months. If Derrick Henry returns – and all signs are pointing to him doing so – I think they move on. But the involvement of the hook (that extra half point) makes me nervous. Still, I’m taking Titans -3.5.
  • Usually when I’m playing the number, I play guess the score. I keep settling in around 23-17. Maybe 24-20? 27-17? One of these teams needs a major offensive output to get over. Under 47.

 

8:15 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6) – Over/Under 47

  • Since I picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, I’m picking them to win this game. But I think six is a lot of points for a game with projected weather conditions around 0 degrees. Packers win, because it’s not the NFC title game yet, but it’s a close one. 49ers +6.
  • Kyle Shanahan is going to want this game slowed down to a crawl. Control the line of scrimmage. Keep it in the 20s. And I don’t think this Packers defense is good enough to prevent that, even with injury concerns at QB for San Francisco. Under 47.

Sunday

3:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – Over/Under 48.5

  • Do we overreact to the Rams victory over the Cardinals Monday night? Anybody paying attention over the last six weeks knows the Cardinals have been awful. Do we overreact to the Bucs embarrassment of the Eagles early Sunday? The Eagles have a quarterback who can’t throw and were ultimately 0-8 against playoff teams this season. Sunday is the biggest game of Matthew Stafford’s career. Stafford is the story. I’m taking Tom Brady. Bucs -3.
  • The first time these two played – in September – Brady threw for 432 yards. Stafford threw for 343 yards. That’s nearly 800 yards through the air, folks. This game is going Over 48.5.

 

6:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – Over/Under 54

  • When the line is below three points, I ignore it and just pick the winner. And I find it hard to pick against Josh Allen right now. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense thrives when he’s manufacturing pressure but if the Chiefs overcommit, Allen will eat them alive on the ground. The winner of this game feels destined for the Super Bowl. Bills +1.5.
  • How do these two offenses stay under the number? Buffalo’s defense is very good, but they’ve been diced up several times this season, especially by any team with a competent rush attack. And Kansas City’s discovery of Jerick McKinnon last week gives them an additional element with which Les Frazier’s unit must deal. Over 54. 

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