Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And this young 2021 campaign has been building to the Packers, and Justin Fields, at Soldier Field. If the Bears win, the fan march back into the city will look like this:

(I realize those who drive to Soldier Field have never experienced this walk but it is truly one of the most unique, remarkable things about the experience. Win or lose, it’s always amazing.)

Why Not?

So often, these Packers games can be approached with a sense of resignation. Everything feels like it has to go right for the Bears to beat Aaron Rodgers. Khalil Mack wrecks the game. Lose. Defense holds Rodgers to 10 points. Still lose. It is obvious the Bears will be out-gunned at quarterback when these teams play but too often they have felt outplayed at the 21 other positions, and out-maneuvered on the sideline. Honestly, it hasn’t been a fair fight.

This fight is fair. The Packers are not the Packers. They struggle to run the ball. They are a bit one-trick on the outside, with Davante Adams pulling away from the field when it comes to targets. And injuries to Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander have rendered what was an ascending defense to the realm of gettable. (Kevin King may also be out this week.) They are still the best team in the NFC North, and overwhelming favorites to win this division, but they also could have easily lost to both the Niners and Bengals. What would we be saying about this team if they were 2-3 right now?

Why not now, Bears? Why not roll this two-game winning streak into Soldier Field and beat your oldest rival? Why not ride the crowd energy created by this young quarterback to a franchise-invigorating victory? Why not make the statement that, “Hey, we might not have the weapons or corners of the best teams in the league but we’re coming and coming soon”?

This is likely to be Rodgers’ last game in Soldier Field as the Packers quarterback. Why not make his swan song a dirge?

Stats of the Week

• Hinted at this yesterday but the Bears and Packers are oddly close in a lot of defensive statistical rankings. They are 8th/6th in yards allowed, 12th/10th in passing yards allowed, 14th/16th in opposing passer rating and 12th/11th in rushing yards allowed. The big defensive gaps are sacks (18-10 Bears) and points allowed (20 Bears, 24.4 Packers).
• The Packers blitz on 25.7% of opponent drop backs; the league’s 14th highest rate. The Bears blitz on 15.7%; only three teams blitz less. For a game that will come down to pressuring the quarterback, these numbers seem pertinent.
• First downs.
  • The Bears have 38 first downs on the ground. (8th in the league) The Packers have 25. (23rd in league)
  • The Packers have 67 first downs through the air. (11th in league) The Bears are dead last with 35. They simply have to get more creative in short yardage.

Thoughts on Not Drinking

Years ago I wrote a longform piece about taking time off the drink, titled Diary of a Boozer (Off the Booze). You can visit the link for the post HERE or download the PDF right HERE. For someone who drinks a lot, taking an extended break from it can feel like an earth-shattering experience.

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Edited. Original photograph by Mike Dinovo, USA TODAY Sports.

The Bears are trying to do something uncommon in the NFL. They are trying to win games while developing a rookie quarterback. That is not to say other franchises who have brought along a rookie QB didn’t want to win each Sunday. (The Jags and Jets are DESPERATE for victories.) But the Bears believe they have a playoff-caliber roster around Justin Fields – due mostly to this roster making the playoffs last season – and have now entrusted the kid to help them get to the tournament.

If the Bears beat the Packers at home on Sunday, their odds to play meaningful football in January will take a massive jump. (And selfishly, I want the Bears playing a playoff game when I celebrate my 40th birthday the weekend of the 15th in Atlantic City.)

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What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• This is a difficult stretch coming but if there is a bag of tricks, this is the week to empty it. The Bears have been predictable on early downs and even more predictable in short-yardage situations. That has to change this week. Why?
  • The Packers rank right with the Bears in every meaningful defensive category, with the exception of points per game, where the Bears currently sit 7th and the Packers 19th, a four-point difference. This is a good Green Bay defense but injuries – especially to elite corner Jaire Alexander – leave them more vulnerable.
  • The Bears sit alone in the basement of offensive rankings. They are 20 yards below the next worst team in yards per game, Miami, and 200(!!!!) below the Ravens, who rank first. Their conservative strategy has worked against Jared Goff and Derek Carr. It won’t work against Aaron Rodgers.
  • A win gives them a nice pressure cushion. Beating the Packers, getting to 4-2, and taking first place, would allow them to play their next four (Bucs, Niners, Steelers, Ravens) at 2-2, or even 1-3, and still maintain a level of excitement for this season. 5-5 may not sound like much but 5-5 with a rookie quarterback is reason for serious optimism.
• Take what’s underneath. One of the things Joe Burrow did so well against Green Bay was understand the value of getting five yards on 3rd and 4. Instead of waiting for plays to develop downfield in those situations, he got the ball out quickly and moved the chains. This is still a developing element of Fields’ game and it will hopefully be a major coaching point during the week. (If this is a 6-8 catch game for Damien Williams, the Bears are being productive offensively.)
• On two fourth downs in the second half, the Bengals ran a simple QB draw with Burrow and got the first down both times.  These were both called and they both worked because of the pace of execution. This is a game where Fields can be more deliberate with his runs. If he drops back and it’s there, take it. Avoid unnecessary contact. Slide. But keeping those chains moving, and keeping the defense rested, are essential Sunday. Fields’ legs may be the key to doing both.

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What Must the Bears Do on Defense:

• Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have the most symbiotic quarterback/receiver relationship in the league, and that relationship appears telepathic the nearer they get the end zone. This is the week to stick 33 on 17. Let Jaylon Johnson follow Adams around the field and take your chances with Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, Aaron Lazard, etc. If Adams beats Johnson consistently, live with that result. There’s no better option on the roster.

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Anthony Miller Traded to Texans

Late Saturday night, the boys over at NFL Network broke the story that Miller, the talented and temperamental wide receiver, would be leaving Chicago for the worst franchise in professional sports. My initial response was being slightly ticked that I wasted an hour writing Friday’s column, wherein I deemed Miller the “player to watch” on offense this summer. But after a bit of time, a new reaction emerged: why?

Yes, I’m sure there are folks out there, those who worship at the altar of the almighty draft capital, arguing that swapping late-round picks is tremendous value the Bears simply could not pass up. But there is a camp of pragmatists who abide by another maxim: you don’t quit on talent.

What is the cost of bringing Miller to camp this week? If he’s a pain in the ass, or a detriment to the organization, surely the late-round swap is still available from Houston (or another organization). It’s not like the additional week of work is going to turn Tyrod Taylor-to-Miller into the new Peyton Manning-to-Marvin Harrison. The potential upside was not necessarily that Miller “figure it out” but that he simply learned to exist as role player and became a productive member of the offense.

This is the Chicago Bears we’re talking about. And while optimism is at an all-time high due to the arrival of Justin Fields, this is still a group that has been desperate for playmakers. That’s why Ryan Pace brought in Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd. That’s why Damien Williams was added to the running backs room and Khalil Herbert was drafted late. The Bears need as many playmaking options as humanly possible. And they just shipped a potential one south.

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DraftKings Sportsbook has now installed Minnesota as the favorite to win the NFC North.

“I never said I’m unhappy with my boss,” Aaron Rodgers replied to a jab made by Tom Brady in a video that was released last week. The video was mocking a game of Jeopardy between the two star quarterbacks, Rodgers the 2020 NFL MVP and Brady the Super Bowl winner. The answer was “He’s an NBA owner, a self-taught guitarist and has guest-starred on both The Office and Game of Thrones” to which Brady added “He’s unhappy with his boss and has no options. Who is Aaron Rodgers?”

But Rodgers had the response ready and it seems to be a safe bet that he’s going to use that line again.

Rodgers has said a lot since the end of the 2020 season that would lead one to believe he wanted some sort of commitment from the Green Bay Packers. He didn’t get it and the day of the NFL Draft there were reports that he wouldn’t play for the team again. But, as Rodgers was quick to say: he never said that.

As training camp nears, the question of “will he” or “won’t he” lingers over the entire league, especially the NFC North, where Rodgers playing could have a very direct impact on what kind of season the Bears have.

Should Rodgers play, we’re probably penciling the Bears in for two losses. If he doesn’t, two wins or a split at worst. That one game could be the difference between the Bears making the playoffs or missing out. With seven teams making the cut, it isn’t hard to see how the Bears could once again be in contention for that final spot.

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Camp is still weeks away and with it comes the anticipation of analyzing every single throw from Justin Fields and Andy Dalton for days and days and days.

• Scott Dochterman at The Athletic has the fascinating tale of the Rock Island Independents: “At the intersection of 18th Avenue and 10th Street stand two brick ticket booths that serve as enduring markers to NFL history…For more than a century, those structures have stood at the entryway to Douglas Park, which once hosted an NFL charter franchise. In this gritty Mississippi River town, the booths are the only remaining relic from a foregone era when professional football consisted of mid-sized industrial towns and major communities.”
• Jim Miller doesn’t think the Bears will get a long-term deal done with Allen Robinson, pushing the drama back to next off-season.
• Here’s the YouTube link to a terrific Hoge & Jahns podcast with the great Jeff Joniak, a man I believe resides among the top radio play-by-play voices in the NFL.
• Is Eddie Goldman actually weighing retirement? Honestly, after the the craziness of the last year plus, nothing would surprise me. But Goldman is one of the best run-stuffing defenders in the league and the Bears would not be able to replace that production.
• Mike Ditka said some stuff about Matt Nagy and Justin Fields. I agree with both ideas, which now leads me to think I’m wrong.
• Bow Wow thinks the Falcons will regret not drafting Fields.
• ACTUAL BEAR NEWS: Outside of LA, a small bear attacked some men on Mount Wilson, as they waited for the fireworks to start. A reporter approached one of the men a day or so later. “Are you going back there next July 4?…”Oh yeah,” Kenneth responded.” I hope the bear returns for the rematch.
• Aaron Rodgers used this off-season to work on his mental health – which is another terrific example of pro athletes opening up about a major issue too long relegated to the shadows. He has also been defending his silent approach to his situation with the Packers – one of the strangest to play out in modern NFL history. Meanwhile, Rodgers hasn’t met with his receivers.

Updated NFC North odds:

Green Bay remains the favorite at -121, which could only be the number if DraftKings believed Rodgers will end up playing for the Packers. Minnesota and Chicago – +225 and +350 respectively – are sitting at pretty good numbers. Detroit is +2000 and those odds are still too low.

It’s been a week since Justin Fields became the next quarterback of the Chicago Bears.

It’s been that same week since Aaron Rodgers decided he would no longer go gentle into that Green Bay night. After weeks of apparently expecting to be traded and not, while also receiving contract extension offers without enough guaranteed cash, Rodgers decided to have his people call Adam Schefter’s people and fly the Enola Gay over the draft proceedings in Cleveland.

Immediately, DraftKings Sportsbook pulled the NFC North odds for next season off the board. As rumors of Rodgers’ probable destinations surfaced – Denver and Vegas being the leaders in the clubhouse – DK also pulled the AFC West off the board. (Both divisions have since been reinstalled, with the Packers -115 to win the division, which might be where the odds settle without Rodgers in the mix.)

Will Rodgers be on the Packers this season? He’s told the team he will not. He’s told his teammates he will not. I’m pretty sure he told half the bartenders at Churchill Downs he will not. (“Hey man, you know this is one good Mint Julep. You know anything about the golf clubs in Denver?”) All signs are pointing to the end of the Rodgers era in Green Bay and the first set in the main room for Jordan Love, who’ll now begin his quest to provide the Packers with three consecutive Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

No matter the outcome of the Rodgers saga, the Bears must ignore it. All of it. Yes, Rodgers out of the NFC North would mean the division is up for grabs in 2021 and the Bears would be well-positioned to win it. But the team can’t let the circumstances of another club, even their oldest rival, impact the development of their quarterback. If the plan coming out of camp is for Andy Dalton to start the season at quarterback and for Fields to learn at the hip of Matt Nagy for a period of time, stick to that plan. If Dalton starts 0-2, so be it.

History definitively tells us two things. (1) Andy Dalton isn’t winning the Super Bowl. (2) Rookie quarterbacks aren’t winning the Super Bowl. So while winning the NFC North would be a nice treat in 2021, the team will be far better served ensuring their young quarterback is ready to win the whole shebang in September 2022.

Rodgers leaving the division would be a remarkable moment; a three-city sigh of relief. But when it comes to the long-term success of the Chicago Bears and their quarterback, it shouldn’t mean a damn thing.

4-0 last week.

Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

Two more bets for Championship Sunday, as we try and go into the Super Bowl on a bona fide heater. (As always, betting odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook & Casino.)

Sunday 2:05 PM CT – Buccaneers @ Packers

Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 touchdown passes: +145

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Tampa Bay allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the sport this season, limiting their opponents to only ten over their first 17 games. So if you expect the Packers to score touchdowns – and I certainly do – you either need to pick his targets accurately or pick his total. The latter seems more appealing and the odds suggest that. (You really wanna lay +115 odds on Robert Tonyan? I don’t.)

Yes, it’s going to be cold but Rodgers has thrown more than two touchdowns in six of last eight games and this does not feel like a low-scoring affair.

Sunday 5:40 PM CT – Bills @ Chiefs

(Note: There are far fewer prop bets available for this contest due to Patrick Mahomes’ concussion/neck/foot issues. He’s going to play, but in what shape will he be?)

Josh Allen to score a touchdown: +135

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Allen looked shaky against Baltimore’s high-pressure approach last week and he should expect more of the same from Steve Spagnuolo’s unit this week. But Allen is a gamer and this feel like an evening where he’ll need to leave EVERYTHING on the field if the Bills are going to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since January 30, 1994. Brian Daboll doesn’t hesitate to call Allen’s number inside the red zone and it could be the perfect remedy to beat an ill-timed Spags blitz.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears. And…

The Bears’ offense has been SCARY 👀

Offensive Stats – Last 4 Games

• 35.0 PPG
• 396.8 Total YPG
• +55 PT Margin
• 159.0 Rush YPG
• 3-1 Record#DaBears pic.twitter.com/6dakOQrJMs

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 30, 2020

Three Things the Bears Must Do To Win

• Pressure Rodgers. Yes, this seems like an obvious point but it’s even more important with the injuries in the secondary. Rodgers is a master at identifying the weakness in the opposing defense and exploiting it until the score is out of hand. Mike Glennon, with a clean pocket, was able to attack Vildor and Shelley successfully. If Jaylon Johnson doesn’t return, what will Rodgers do to them?
• Trubisky Plays to His Non-Packers Norm. No, Trubisky is not a great quarterback. But he’s also not the AWFUL player he has been against the Packers.
  • He completes 63.65% of his passes overall. He’s sub-60% against the Packers.
  • His career passer rating is 87.4. It’s 79 – a massive drop – against the Packers.
  • He’s been sacked 110 times overall. 21 of those sacks have come against the Packers. (Detroit got him 13 times, Minnesota 8.)
• Pound the Ball. 
  • Bucs beat the Packers with 158 yards rushing. Colts beat the Packers with 140 yards rushing. Vikings beat the Packers with 173 yards rushing. Jaguars took the Packers to the wire with 109 yards rushing. The Bears have to know, right now, that anything south of 100 yards rushing won’t get it done against Rodgers and the Packers. This has to be a David Montgomery game.

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The Bears are allowing 22.3 points per game.

The Packers are scoring 31.6 points per game.

Split the difference. 26.95. Let’s round it up for a good time. 27.

That’s the number. Chuck Pagano needs to keep the Packers under that number. Would everyone around the Chicago Bears like to see his defense keep Aaron Rodgers WELL below that number? Of course. But they just haven’t been that kind of unit since returning from the bye. Rodgers, the last time, got to 41. Stafford got to 34. Even Cousins got to 27.

Criticizing a defensive coordinator is always tricky. So many times it devolves into, “We’re not getting enough pressure with our front so why don’t we blitz?” Or even the sillier, “That wide receiver is good, why don’t we cover him?” So many times what looks like bad defensive coordination is actually orchestrated by the quarterback at the line of scrimmage. So often that matchup that leaves a fan scratching their head has been mapped out all week by the opposing offensive coordinator.

The problem with Pagano’s defense is they’ve often looked like a passive group. They don’t dictate the terms of play. They are reactionary. Yes, that’s a product of the modern rules. But it’s also a product of attitude.

Why Are They Struggling?

A lot of that is the result of a pass rush that has failed to live up to expectations.

Khalil Mack has been reliably disruptive but offensive coordinators have been willing to use as many players as necessary to keep him off their quarterbacks. (Several times Sunday the Jags used two OL and a chipping back to keep Mack at bay.) Robert Quinn has played better of late but has had perhaps his most forgettable season. Akiem Hicks has had his least productive (healthy) season as a pass rusher since coming to Chicago.

The Bears pass rush ranks middle of the league in most viable categories: sacks, pressure rate…etc. Middle of the pack is poor when the GM has committed this much money to it. The pockets have been too clean, too often, and that’s left the secondary vulnerable.

A clean pocket for Aaron Rodgers is a death sentence.

What is Sunday?

Which brings us to the bigger point. There’s been much talk around this team that Sunday is a season-defining game. Dan Pompei went so far as to suggest it’s the only game of the 2020 season that matters. But I’ve got some sad news for Bears fans: the Bears aren’t as good as the Packers. And as long as Rodgers is the quarterback up north, that’s likely to be the case. Does that mean the Bears can’t win Sunday? Of course not. Anybody can beat anybody in this league, especially this year.

But if I had an abs off with Brad Pitt, guess what? I’m going to lose. He has intense dietary restrictions, a tireless workout regiment, and an expensive personal trainer ensuring he stays sculpted. When I walk into my local bodega, I don’t even tell them which beer I want. I just give them a number and that’s how many 24 oz. Coors Banquets show up on the counter.

But if Brad and I contest our battle on a different playing field, perhaps the golf course, his abs become a secondary issue.

The Bears can’t make this game about Rodgers’ success. If that’s the playing field, they’ll lose.

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