59 Comments

Wildcard Weekend Game Predictions

| January 4th, 2018

There are 11 playoff games. My best record against the spread was 7-4 in 2014. This year I will take that record to the woodshed.


Tennessee at Kansas City

Saturday – 3:20 pm CT 

Pick: Chiefs -9.

For some reason I’ve been watching a bunch of Titans games lately, mostly to look at Mariota, and something is very clear: the Titans are terrible. Kansas City was 6-2 at home this season and are quietly coming into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. (The Matt Nagy bump?) This profiles as the weekend’s only blowout. Lay the points! 37-16 Chiefs.


Atlanta at Los Angeles

Saturday – 7:15 pm CT

Pick: Atlanta +6.5.

I don’t know why I think this but I think there’s a big effort somewhere in this Falcons team. I’m not sure they can win this game on the road because they don’t have a consistent bone in their collective bodies but I still need Jared Goff to win a playoff game before I can get fully on the Ramwagon. 27-21 Rams.


Buffalo at Jacksonville

Sunday – 12:05 pm CT

Pick: Bills +9.

I’m just banking on this game being unwatchably low-scoring. 16-9 Jags.


Carolina at New Orleans

Sunday – 3:40 pm CT

Pick: Saints -7.

These teams played twice this season. Saints won both. Total score: 65-34. If this game were in Carolina I think a Panthers upset would be in-play but I’m having a hard time seeing it in the dome. I’ll be rooting for Chico and the boys but that egg they laid in Week 17 against the Falcons is tough to shake from my mind. 30-17 Saints.

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  • AlbertInTucson

    Some pretty healthy point spreads for this weekend.

    • willbest

      Anybody giving the Bills more than a FG is dropping acid. The Jags enter the playoffs on a 2 game losing streak with Bortles throwing 5 interceptions over that time. The Bills are 6th in INT and 4th in forced fumbles.

      The Jags might be great at generating TO’s also, but if you exclude the day the Bills HC went insane and started Peterman, the Bills have turned the ball over 10 times.

      • AlbertInTucson

        That line is assuming Shady McCoy won’t have much of an impact, if any, with a bum ankle.

      • BerwynBomber

        Some of the lines are probably also predicated on the blowout history of the last few years of WC games.

  • AlbertInTucson

    House cleaning continues in GB.

    OC, Edgar Bennett and QB coach, Alex Van Pelt, join Dom Capers in the NFL unemployment line.

    As a player, Bennett, is infamous for having his only 100 yard rushing games as a Packer against The Bears before becoming a Bear and proceeding to stink out loud.

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  • Irish Sweetness

    Haven’t had a bet this year, but these look interse=ting.

    Why not take thee points on all four?

    Premise:

    1. It’s the playoffs, there should be no easy games. Games should be close.
    2. Won’t it be cold in KC?? Like freezing? And they’re going to spot Derrick Henry (a Chicago Bear in my Billionaire Dream-World) and Murray 9 points??
    3. The Saints need to run it – but can they ? Against the Panthers linebackers and our next HC, Steve Wilks??

  • Joecashflow

    Fangio interviewed for HC. Say what you want, Irish, but know any other Bears group besides the D, that has improved ever year, last 3, and is top 10? I say hire him, 1, to keep him from falling into GB or 49er lap and 2, Gase can pick the OC. Fangio has all the tangibles, ie, players coach, history of success, developing young players. Let Gase fill in the gaps. Otherwise we may take 3 step back in D again!

    • That Guy

      I don’t think Gase is going to leave Miami mid-contract to come back to the Bears.

      • SC Dave

        Pretty sure he meant Pace.

      • willbest

        Gase just hired Loggains to be his OC

    • catfish44

      gase??

  • Dis Guy Trublinsky (Johnnywad)

    Things getting a little salty amongst the Fudge fans.

    “Packers need to bring in John Fox to be Offensive Coordinator, Chuck Pagano to be Special Teams Coordinator and Mike McCoy to be Defensive Coordinator. Shake it up a little! Fox can learn on the job how an offense works. Pagano can mastermind the art of special teams. McCoy can take his turn at defense and figure out that aspect. The general manager should be Ryan Grigson. He now has experience and can take his experience to the next level. Aaron Rodgers should be shipped to the Vikings for 11 defensive starters as well.“

    I wonder if the state of the division has the Packers scrambling. The Vikings are kicking everyone’s ass. The Lions are firing a coach with a winning record because they want more. And the Bears finally have what appears to be a quarterback, a good young defense, and looking to pair it all with a quality coaching staff. Couple that with an aging and injured Aaron Rodgers, and perhaps the alarm bells are starting to sound in GB. I don’t think the NFCN is going to be Green Bay’s playground any longer.

    • BerwynBomber

      Frankly, I don’t know if they ever recovered from that NFCC meltdown in SEA in ’14. They have squandered Rodgers’ gifts much more they ever did Favre’s. Largely because they overrated McCarthy and Thompson.

      MIN is definitely the team to beat. They could be a juggernaut if they get their QB issue figured out for the next three or four years. And Zimmer strikes me as rock solid.

      DET’s firing of Caldwell is, by far, the worst post-season move of ’17/18. He was competent, mature, consistent and fostered a winning culture. Can they get someone better? Maybe. But were I them I would have given him a couple of more years to keep the ship steady.

      Caldwell was also underrated when you consider he lost two HOF-to-PB level talents in Megatron and Suh.

      • CanadaBear

        Caldwell is very much like Lovie. You can do better but you can do a whole lot worse.

        • BerwynBomber

          That’s my thought too. At the least. Best HC they have had in 50 years and they’re shit-canning him after a 9-7 season?

          So Lions …

          • Bear Instincts

            Nothing wrong with wanting to be better

      • Bear Instincts

        Consistently being average is not good enough. Its the same problems we have as Bears fan. We have to learn to start expecting/demanding better. Everyone or most people i know try to be better than average. With that being the case i dont know why some fans are ok with their team or other teams being average. Its bad for the sport of football.

        • BerwynBomber

          Who’s average?

          • Bear Instincts

            Lions are an average team. 2017 Bears are below average but the 2018 Bears will be average or above average

          • BerwynBomber

            Caldwell was 36-28 w/ two post season appearances in four years in DET. League-wide, that is solidly above average. Considering DET’s past, it is superb.

  • Big Mike

    I’m all on board with the firing of Fox and extending Pace. I don’t have a strong opinion about the next head coach. I’m looking for the positives of the Fox regime and the future for our Bears. Here’s are the positives. Talent level on defense is good. We have a QB (who will have a full offseason and preseason as the 1) We have a good group of RBs. Our OL at full strength is good to very good.

    Here’s are two other facts. Many indexes that rank teams NBA, NCAA Basketball, NCAA Football etc, etc, use strength of schedule and margin of victory as critical components in their algorithms. These methods are also used by bookies to set opening lines. Here’s where the Bears finished up.

    They were tied for the 5th worst record in the league
    – They had the strongest strength of schedule (.559) https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=562830
    – Their point differential of -56 was 20th and better than the Bills or Cardinals who faced a much weaker schedule (.492 and .488).

    What I think this means is the Bears could break out next year. Eliminating the F3 (Fox Fuckery Factor) is worth a win or two alone. Some luck with health is another draft the last 2 years, productive use of the cap and we have an 11 win Bears team. 🙂

    The list of what I’m worried about is too long and no fun.

    • CanadaBear

      I agree with ya but some of that strength of schedule is caused by the Beloved stinking out the joint. Adding two wins to each NFCN opponent for example. Way too early to predict a number of wins but I totally agree with the F3.

      • Big Mike

        Good catch that is indeed a flaw in the Strength of Schedule metric. I’m just saying the Bears had a tough schedule and produced a point differential that was not as bad as you might think.

        • CanadaBear

          Totally agree. Honestly with any decent injury luck that should be good for a win or two. It will be interesting to see if the injuries go down with the new regime.

        • Bear Instincts

          If we didnt have F3 this season we could have won 2 to 3 more games. His game management. cost us. This is not excluding injuries or lack if WR talent or MT10 being a rookie with 13 starts under center

          • Big Mike

            That’s a pretty aggressive number. But it’s also hard to argue with. #arrowupbears

          • Bear Instincts

            Games we should have won this season
            Falcons
            Packers (Brett Hundley)
            49ers
            Thats 3 games Mike

          • Big Mike

            Could have is more accurate than should have. Very few teams win all the games they could/should. Not disagreeing that those were winnable. It’s all very encouraging. Only 1x in my life did the Bears win every winnable game. That was the 13-3 team in the early 2000s.

          • CanadaBear

            The miracle year that got two more years of Jauron.

    • I woke up drunk and a girl giving me sloppy head and i still envy ur optimism

      Bears will be lucky to win one game in the division regardless of coach

      • Big Mike

        Oh no. Come back from the dark side Butch. Why bother if you can’t be optimistic and hopeful.

        • Bears might have the worst QB in the division. And that’s not even a knock on Trub, just reality.

          And that’s just for starters.

          Some Wentz wiz shit would have to happen to compete vs Vadgers, Keenum or Lesbo.

          Sadly, we’re gonna be the Lions during Lovie Bears era

          • CanadaBear

            Gotta start somewhere. Who knows? Maybe Keenum comes back to earth. Stafford is good but he’s not so good he can elevate the Loins much. Erin is starting to get dinged up. Let’s hope this last one affects his arm. He sure looked wimpy in his start. That’s all I got. I think the Beloved could push the Loins into the cellar and things are changing like mad in Fudgieland so who knows how that shakes out. Looks like the Queens are gonna be the big dogs at least next season.

          • Big Mike

            No..I say no.

  • BerwynBomber

    Titans +9
    Rams -6.5
    Bills +9
    CAR +7

  • CanadaBear

    If I was a Miami fan the world would be spinning off its axis. Have fun with Nathan Lane!

    • BerwynBomber

      I didn’t mind Loggains. Plus, MIA presumably won’t be dealing with Cutler next year. He made Tannenhill seem irreplaceable.

      • CanadaBear

        He never struck me as playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Unless you can pin the run, run pass on Foxy, I didn’t think Nathan was anything to shout about.

        • BerwynBomber

          The run, run pass was probably because they had a rookie QB who, by his own admission, had problems merely getting the mechanics of a play run.

          Otherwise yes, Loggains never struck me as any genius. But he didn’t strike me as John Shoop either.

          • CanadaBear

            The run and Shoop! You just HAD to bring that up didn’t you? Man the Beloved have had some terrible personnel.

          • BerwynBomber

            Sixty minutes of bubble screens.

          • AlbertInTucson

            Wasn’t that Gary Crowton’s thing??

          • AlbertInTucson

            OHhh. DON’T step in the shoop!

        • willbest

          Nathan Lane clearly has more than what the 2017 Bears offense showed based one what the 2016 Bears offense did. The question has always been were those orders from Pace, Fox, Loggains belief that is what Mitch needed to develop, or was Mitch not learning as fast as other QB’s have (ie. Wentz, Russell, etc)

          • CanadaBear

            I’m not going to lose any sleep over Nathan moving on.

          • willbest

            I didn’t think he was an offensive genius. But I have never been under the impression that he was incompetent.

          • CanadaBear

            For me, avg at best.

  • CanadaBear

    Not that I care about this stuff but Craig Sager’s 2nd wife must be a piece of work. His 3 kids from his first marriage are getting zero from the estate, none of them are contesting the will and his 2nd wife is still fighting them. HUH?

    https://www.si.com/tech-media/2018/01/03/craig-sager-kids-will-second-wife-stacy

    • BerwynBomber

      Sounds like Sager might’ve been a piece of work too.

    • willbest

      Sour grapes by the kids. The purpose of probating a will is to quiet all interest in an estate. To that end all potential heirs (even those excluded), creditors, beneficiaries are to receive notice of the proceedings so that they may raise any issues they have or lose them forever.

      • CanadaBear

        I figured you could shed some light on it.

      • AlbertInTucson

        Thank you, counselor.

  • CanadaBear

    Decent article about the Sunday to Thursday turnaround for the players.

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/01/04/thursday-night-football-injured-players

  • catfish44

    good article on why the bears might be wise to hire a head coach who can the offensive plays instead of his offensive coordinator. https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/naming-a-play-caller-as-head-coach-only-way-for-bears-to-guarantee-qb-stability/amp/

    • BerwynBomber

      Ahhh, that must be why Jeff is running interference on behalf of Flip w/ his tweets.

  • Bear Instincts
    • AlbertInTucson

      Gracias.

  • I think the Chiefs will top the Titans.

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