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The Stats Don’t Lie (or Say Much of Anything): Data Takes on the Senior Bowl

| January 23rd, 2017

I’m happy to be saying I’ll be doing a monthly offseason piece here at DaBearsBlog, helping fill the content void of the long offseason. Each one will be a numbers-crunching look at something Bears related in which I attempt to earn the “Data” moniker so kindly bestowed on me by the comments section regulars and, more importantly, answer a Bears question that I’ve been wondering about. If you have anything you’d like me to look into, let me know in the comments or email me at woodjohnathan1@gmail.com and I’ll see what I can do.


I’m starting with a topic that I’m sure you’ll be hearing a lot about this week: the Senior Bowl.

John Fox and company will be down in Mobile, Alabama all week coaching around 100 draft-eligible players, giving them a first-hand look at their skills, mental makeup and attitude. This has many fans excited, as they dream of the surefire franchise-altering draft to come from this valuable knowledge.

So my premise here today is simple. I looked at coaches who coached in the Senior Bowl the last 10 years, how many players from that week they drafted, and how those draft picks panned out. Since Chicago is likely drafting their quarterback of the future this year, I also looked specifically at teams coaching in the Senior Bowl who drafted QBs.

Anecdotal Evidence

First, you should know that coaching in the Senior Bowl is no sure sign of good things to come. The teams that typically coach in the Senior Bowl are the teams with the worst record in each conference the previous season who retained their head coach. With that in mind, it’s not exactly inspiring to see that San Francisco and Jacksonville both coached in this game for three straight years at some point in the last decade. Clearly they didn’t gain valuable enough information to draft players who would stop losing the following year.

Those wanting to stay optimistic, however, would do well to look at San Francisco’s 2007 draft, when they spent 5 picks in the first 4 rounds on players they had just coached in the Senior Bowl. Those picks landed them Patrick Willis, Joe Staley, and Ray McDonald – each part of the core that made up one of the best teams in the NFL from 2011-13. I’m sure we’d all be thrilled if the Bears landed three high quality players like that from their experience this week.

Of course, the 2010 Miami Dolphins spent their first 4 picks on players they had just coached in the Senior Bowl and ended up with Jared Odrick, Koa Misi, John Jerry and AJ Edds. That’s not exactly a draft class that Super Bowl champions are made of.

Draft Frequency

Enough with the specific examples; let’s get into some hard numbers. From 2006-2016, teams coaching in the Senior Bowl drafted an average of 2.3 players from the Senior Bowl that year. This ranged from some teams picking no Senior Bowlers to a few who picked 5, making up most of their draft.

Two comments:

  • This is not a particularly high number. The Senior Bowl has about 100 players on average, and most of them get drafted, meaning that the 32 NFL teams draft roughly 3 Senior Bowlers on average each year. Perhaps there’s value in Senior Bowl coaches learning what players they don’t want on their teams?
  • These were mostly mid-round picks. 11 were from rounds 1-2, 10 in rounds 6-7, and 30 in rounds 3-5. So it seems those coaching at the Senior Bowl mostly look for players to fill out their middle rounds, though it might also be that those are the rounds where most Senior Bowl players get drafted (I don’t have the numbers on that).

General Draft Success

So in general don’t expect that the Bears’ 2017 draft will necessarily be full of guys from the Senior Bowl. Now the more important question: how successful are teams at drafting players they coached in the Senior Bowl?

It’s difficult to quantify draft success. The metric I used for the sake of simplicity – though I will admit this is far from perfect – is the number of draft picks who went on to make a Pro Bowl. Out of the 51 players drafted by these 22 teams, 9 made a Pro Bowl (so far, there’s certainly room for that to increase for some of the players from the more recent drafts). 9 out of 51 is a pretty good hit rate, as most teams would be thrilled if 18% of their picks became Pro Bowlers (typically about 100 out of 1600 or so players in the league each year). That’s especially impressive considering where those 52 picks were spent, with only 11 in the first 2 rounds of the draft. If you want to look at the list and make your own conclusions, feel free to do so here (http://bit.ly/2jsXLqg).

 It’s a tiny sample size, but worth noting that teams coaching in the Senior Bowl who draft Senior Bowl guys in round 1 do quite well.

 4 of 6 1st round picks made a Pro Bowl, though 3 of those 4 guys were drafted in the back third of the round.

 Most top 10-15 picks don’t go to the Senior Bowl for fear of dropping their stock through poor performance or injury.

 The official Senior Bowl site also likes to brag that 23 2016 Pro Bowl players (out of 86 total) were Senior Bowl alumni. Only 3 of those 23 players, however, were drafted by a team that coached them at the Senior Bowl, and only 2 of those three were still playing for the team that drafted them. 2 of 23 is not appreciably different from the 1/16th of the league that coaches in the Senior Bowl each year.

Quarterbacks

Now for the good stuff: did teams who coached in the Senior Bowl with an eye on finding their next franchise QB get what they were looking for? It’s a small sample size, but I think history here is actually quite encouraging. Since it’s a small list, I want to look at each instance one by one. That way we can examine the pick in context.

In 2006, the Titans had the 3rd overall pick. They took Vince Young, who was not at the Senior Bowl. They passed on Jay Cutler – who was far and away the best quarterback in that draft – after spending a week coaching him.

In 2011, the Bengals spent their 2nd round pick on Andy Dalton, who they had coached in the Senior Bowl. They couldn’t have made a better pick there, as Dalton is easily the best QB not named Cam Newton out of that draft and they had no shot at Newton.

In 2012 Washington traded up to the 2nd pick of the draft in the draft to select Robert Griffin III, who was not at the Senior Bowl. History has shown that to be a mistake, but Washington somewhat made up for it when they grabbed Kirk Cousins, who they had coached at the Senior Bowl in round 4. Of course, their best move would have been to wait and take Cousins, or grab Russell Wilson, another Senior Bowl QB that year. Apparently a week with Wilson was not enough to convince them he was a superstar in the making.

In 2013 Oakland spent their fourth round pick on Tyler Wilson, who they had coached at the Senior Bowl. Not exactly an inspiring selection, but at least the QB-desperate team avoided reaching for 1st-round Senior Bowl QB bust EJ Manuel. That entire draft was a wasteland for QBs, as the best ones so far have been Mike Glennon and Matt Barkley. So perhaps Oakland learned enough from that week to not waste a high pick on a bad QB just because they needed one.

In 2014, Jacksonville spent the 3rd overall pick on Blake Bortles, who was not at the Senior Bowl. The 2nd round of that draft saw Senior Bowl QB Derek Carr drafted, who has since blossomed into a superstar. Jimmy Garoppolo was also a Senior Bowl QB drafted in the 2nd round; there’s no saying at this point if he’s better than Bortles, but he looked very good in his brief stint earlier this year and could be a starter somewhere next year.

It’s starting to look like teams coaching at the Senior Bowl should avoid drafting QBs they don’t coach that week at the top of the draft. (Excepting, of course, Tennessee drafting Marcus Mariota 2nd overall in 2015 even though he wasn’t at the Senior Bowl.) I’d say that’s worked out pretty well for them so far.

Finally, both teams who coached at the Senior Bowl in 2016 drafted a QB they coached that week. Dallas grabbed Dak Prescott in round 4, and Jacksonville grabbed Brandon Allen in round 6. That worked wonderfully for Dallas, though to be fair they famously came out of Senior Bowl week wanting Connor Cook over Prescott. You can’t fault Jacksonville for a 6th round QB who doesn’t play as a rookie, but they also saw Prescott for a week and passed on drafting him 4 times.

Add it all up and what do you get? Of the 8 teams that coached in the Senior Bowl and drafted a QB that year, 4 found a solid starter or better. That’s pretty good, especially when you consider only 4 of those 8 were 1st round picks, right? Of course, 1 of those QBs wasn’t at the Senior Bowl, 1 was only drafted as a backup after trading the farm to draft a different QB, and 1 was only drafted because the guy they wanted was gone.

Summing it up

Overall, there aren’t a lot of hard and fast conclusions from this data. You can spin it to make it look good or bad, which means the main takeaway is this: coaching in the Senior Bowl might help, but it is no guarantee of either a successful draft or of finding your quarterback of the future.

So by all means pay attention this week. Watch, listen, and dream of the next Bears superstar who might be getting a head start under Chicago’s coaching staff, of the franchise quarterback who can lead them to the promised land. It absolutely could happen. Just don’t be shocked if that dream ends up being nothing more than a fantasy.

Tagged: ,

  • SC Dave

    Lot of stuff to read first thing in the morning.

    • BearDown100393

      I sincerely hope Ryan Pace is able to work unshackled from upstairs interference.

      • Big Mike

        There really is not a lot of evidence that “upstairs” meddles.

        • willbest

          The media will have its narrative because facts don’t generate revenue anymore

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Did they ever?

          • willbest

            Fair point, nostalgia for a time that never existed. Yellow Journalism has been around for a while. That being said reporters used to just be high school graduates that worked their way up gaining experience in what they were reporting on along the way, and then they used to be college grads that were taught to report the 5 W’s. Now they are taught to “do good”

          • The name is GP

            That being said lawyers used to just be law school graduates that worked their way up gaining experience in what they were litigating on along the way, and then they used to be grads that were taught to bend to the will of the firm and judged on their cash flow. Now they are actively taught to “do harm”

          • willbest

            1) They are taught to do the same good the journalist are.

            2) Know your history before you fail at making a joke.

            In living memory, there were 3 ways to become a lawyer
            a) apprenticeship
            b) pass the bar
            c) law school.

            These days its pass the bar after law school (though there are a couple states that don’t require you to go to law school before sitting for the bar). And some states are more lenient on what they will let non lawyers do than others. The change was anti-competitive to be sure however. Though the biggest problem for everybody else was somebody let lawyers have computers. Which was akin to making nuclear warheads for sale over the counter.

          • The name is GP

            My joke didn’t fail. It was right on point; hence your butthurt about it.

            I know my history better than you do.

          • willbest

            You started with the butt hurt. But it is unlikely you know the history of the legal profession better than I.

          • The name is GP

            I did not realize I speaking to Charles W. Kingsfield Jr.

          • willbest

            You are in a pissy mood today considering how well yesterday turned out for Bears fans. Did somebody run over your dog or something?

          • The name is GP

            The term “alternative facts” was introduced into the lexicon of a standing US President. That is a full Orwellian term.

            And you are taking the administration’s side and hating on the press.

            The Washington Post is saying they can no longer cover or handle this president the way all other presidents (and this includes Nixon, btw) have been handled:

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-traditional-way-of-reporting-on-a-president-is-dead-and-trumps-press-secretary-killed-it/2017/01/22/75403a00-e0bf-11e6-a453-19ec4b3d09ba_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_sullivan-514pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.c369c558e8e9

            This is populism unhinged. I can benefit, from my belief system, from populism. Elizabeth Warren hated the TPP and Trump just formally withdrew from it this morning. Trump did something Elizabeth Warren wanted the U.S. to do. That’s the crazy thing about the far right: it sometimes looks like the far left.

            That’s why they called it the Nationalist SOCIALIST party in Weimer Germany.

            I have issue with the 1st amendment. I had to end a date from a chick that was reasonably fuckable (you can get MB’s input on this, I texted him a pic) because she started saying people who burn flags should go to federal pens. And she meant it.

            SMH.

          • CanadaBear

            Should have fucked her and burned her flag on the way to your car!

          • The name is GP

            If there is one thing that middle age has taught me, Canada, it’s this:

            fucking da crazy is never, ever, worth it. ever.

          • Huge Bears Penis

            true but they do make life interesting. Like you never know when you are going to walk out to find a 7 iron bashed through one of your car windows.

          • willbest

            So what you are saying is I would need to lower my deductibles if I wanted to pursue that lifestyle.

          • Huge Bears Penis

            if the cost is the first thing you thought about then you could never handle that kind of crazy.

          • willbest

            I dated a girl that showed up at my house over thanksgiving uninvited in college and bit me so hard I needed 3 stitches. When I broke up with her she called my mom (no idea how she got that number) to inform her that I was a closet homosexual, among other people.

            Never again.

          • CanadaBear

            No doubt. It was just kind of a takeoff on the old joke where the woman asks the man to give her 9″ and make it hurt. So he fucked her twice and punched her in the mouth.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            People who burn flags because they are paid to do so by a politiCAL movement or do so to purposely create civil unrest are at the bottom of the totem pole for me.

            I do however, respect a person who is able to see and understand the difference between a symbol for a national identity and political brainwashing.

          • SC Dave

            Comically, you would evidently defend this “CNN wisely chose not to air the briefing in full, but to report on it and to show parts, providing context. ”

            In other words, fake news from CNN, endorsed by that bastion of impartiality, the Washington Post.

            Utterly laughable, and a substantial % of America is done with it.

          • willbest

            So you believe in free speech for everybody but the mouth piece of the government?

            Quite frankly after the Gruber video came to light, nobody on the left has any standing to complain about the government lying since well nobody was impeached over it.

            And the reason the far right is looking like the far left these days, is because they are using the same weapons. The Germans could only drop mustard gas on allied forces so many times before their own troops started sucking it in too. It won’t be long before the “facists” on the right start punching, shooting, destroying property, etc. the same way the “anti-facists” currently do. At which point the “anti-facists” will escalate again. Things are going to get worse before they get better. The right isn’t going to deescalate with the left banging the war drums even louder now than they were 2 months ago, and the left is currently in the process of escalating. A nice meeting down in Florida this weekend talking about the hundreds of million of lawfare they plan on unleashing against Trump will make what the did to the state of Alaska look like an uncontested eviction hearing.

            I am glad you are starting to understand that Trump isn’t a conservative. Why do you think so many people on the right didn’t like him, and why he won ostensibly by stealing Obama/B Clinton voters in the midwest?

            The question with him was always how much could you trust him to follow through, and it turns out, based on most of his cabinet picks, and the part of his itinerary we know about he at least is attempting to stay close to what he promised. He is meeting with Canada/Mexico next month to start up NAFTA renegotiation, for example.

            Somebody made the comment that Trump haters take him literally, not seriously while Trump supporters take him seriously, not literally. And that sounds about the right of it.

          • SC Dave

            That was me.

          • Huge Bears Penis

            Joke did not fail. It made me laugh, well done good sir.

          • The name is GP

            Trump’s crowds were tremendous! The largest ever assembled! There was glorious praise for the new king!

            http://pebblewriter.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Emperor-Has-No-Clothes.jpg

          • willbest

            Get back to me when he lies about something that affects my life.

          • The name is GP

            Shouldn’t take long.

          • willbest

            Its going to be hard to top “if you like your plan and your doctor you can keep it.” 3 doctors and 4 plans later…

          • willbest
          • The name is GP

            ok. that was funny. you got me there.

    • MB30SD

      Agree 100% Dave… Sadly, I have that pit in my stomach that we’re just cursed like the lions and browns (to a much lesser degree)

      • Sauron’s right eyeball

        It’s been 32 years. There’s 32 teams, surely our number will be called again soon? Jess?

        • MB30SD

          Not with teddy and george

  • Huge Bears Penis

    woke up this morning and the weather is crappy overcast foggy rainy. It was bringing me down, then I remember the Falcons kicked the crap out of the Packers and it brought a smile to my face.

    • The name is GP

      And specifically, they beat the shit out of Rodgers. He’s gonna feel that game for months.

      • CanadaBear

        You were right, that blind side blitz blew his ass up numerous times. Loved it!

        • SC Dave

          Lets hope for more of the same v Brady

  • CanadaBear

    How sweet was that Dirty Birds game? For the first time in a long time, the officials didn’t fall all over the Fudge and esp Erin. Every time that whiny ass baby was crying for flags and didn’t get his way, another unicorn died. Awesome Sauce! As much as I hate Erin I’ve got to give him credit, he took some nasty hits yesterday (love it). Peppers and Matthews were invisible. I’m sure Peppers is done and will retire. It will be interesting to see if the Fudge bring back Matthews. Whatever they are paying him, it’s too much. He averaged two tackles/game this year and that included assists. Cheap shot asshole.

    • MB30SD

      Hee HEEEEE!!!!!

      Fuck pepper, fuck Mathews, and especially fuuuuck rodgers

      • CanadaBear

        I was grinning from ear to ear the whole game. It was great not seeing Erin smiling and laughing on the sidelines or Matthews do his hair flip. I’m kinda shocked nobody in Cheeseland is crying about Matthews being done. Hopefully they will be the last to know.

        • willbest

          I was happy from the Falcons opening TD but I didn’t breathe easy until about 12 minutes left in the 4th.

          • CanadaBear

            When they scored right before the half, I thought that was the nail in the coffin. I thought Erin would start scoring but I didn’t think the Fudge D could stop the Dirty Birds.

          • AlbertInTucson

            When the Packers went 3 and out and then watched Julio scamper thru them for 73 and a TD to make it 31-0 is when the Packer broadcast crew knew they were toast.

          • CanadaBear

            Jones brushed both of those DB’s aside like he was swatting flies.

      • Sauron’s right eyeball

        That’s my boi!

    • willbest

      Packers D lost them that game. 3 possessions should have ended in turnovers instead of touchdowns. The same Packers D let Dallas back in the game last week. And yet Jeff felt a need to complain about Rodgers not getting the Manning treatment. smh

      • BerwynBomber

        Yeah, that’s just Blogfather’s anti-Rodgers/pro-Peyton obsession. Hell, Rodgers carried that team this year.

        P.S. read somewhere that in Rodgers’ seven post-season losses the Cheese D has given up an average of 36 points. Tells you all you need to know.

        • CanadaBear

          I hate the bastard and think he plays the media like a drum but you can’t take away his talent or toughness. Although, he’s so worried about getting credit for everything that he comes off as childish and petty.

          • BerwynBomber

            Yeah, he’s tougher than I ever imagined. I wonder if it somewhat has to do with trying to live up to Favre’s iron man persona. As you said, he took some wicked shots yesterday.
            Heck, my biggest fear now is whether ATL shot their wad yesterday. I can see them putting in a performance like CAR’s last year.

          • CanadaBear

            I think BB will probably neutralize Julio but the Birds run game is legit. Not to mention Jones isn’t the only good WR on the team (just the best by a lot).

          • BerwynBomber

            Valid points. Plus, even though the Pats D is top five in the game, it ain’t DEN’s of last year, which was historically good.

          • SC Dave

            I was talking anout the Favre legacy to a Packers fan during the game.

            I will never take tougjness away from Rodgers. The guy has taken a lot of sacks in his career.

    • BerwynBomber

      I think the Cheese issues are deep and institutional. Or to put it another way, they’re invested heavily in coaching and management mediocrity (McCarthy, Capers, Thompson) because they have a historical player talent (Rodgers) who gives them cover.

      And yeah, Peppers is probably gone and Matthews certainly looks like he is slowing down. But depending on what the latter makes he might still be worth keeping. He seems to make a big play now and again and I would guess OCs still have to account for him when gameplanning.

      • CanadaBear

        I knew he sucked this year but was surprised to see that he averaged 2 combined tackles/assists per game. That’s some seriously low production.

        • BerwynBomber

          Yeah, he’s definitely slowed. Remember too that both he and Peppers (and Jeff’s boy Peyton) got snagged in that steroid story. Wonder if he’s laying off the PEDs, which has led to the drop in production.

          P.S. at one time Matthews looked like HoFer. My bet now is he ends up with a Briggs-like career. Very good but just not quite great enough to warrant a call from Canton.

    • Waffle

      I think Matthews is really hurt right now and is about to undergo shoulder surgery.

      • CanadaBear

        Good. I hope he’s in a lot of pain. Asshole.

        • EnderWiggin

          We all agree on Matthews, but please, don’t call Waffle an asshole!

  • willbest

    Sample size of 51 is rough. Also the pro-bowl metric. I think the further down the draft the lower your standard is allowed to be I would gather. Round 3-4, did they get a second contract above league min. Round 6-7, are they still in the league 4 years later.

    • Yeah, with more time I would have tried to do stuff like that. Good ideas.

      I wanted to go back farther than 2006, but it started getting damn hard to find rosters online.

      • CanadaBear

        I looked at all that stuff the other day. Once you go back further than 10 years in the NFL it might as well be ancient history. Esp with all the rule changes.

      • willbest

        I am not suggesting anybody does it. Just thinking about it from a GM perspective in trying to figure out the relative value of it. Not saying one should tank to coach the Senior bowl, but there might be a week 17 benefit to not putting your best foot forward if you are already that low on the totem pole.

      • AlbertInTucson

        Even at Pro-Football Reference ?

        • I didn’t stumble on that for rosters. Link?

          • AlbertInTucson

            It’s where I go to confirm my NFL memories.

          • SC Dave

            Go to the team season pages; there is a roster page for quite a ways back..

          • but Senior Bowl rosters?

          • Huge Bears Penis

            http://www.seniorbowl.com/game-history-rosters.php

            there is a link to a PDF that shows players by school by year. Not in a very good format, but might be able to work with it.

          • I saw that. Way too much work to try and put together. I could find rosters year by year back to 2006, so that’s how far back I looked in this study.

    • SC Dave

      I posted some stuff a few threads back about draft position, all-pro selections, and years as a starter.

      All pretty easy to get from pro fb reference.

      A better guage than contract $ in my opinion.

  • BerwynBomber

    Didn’t Wentz play in the Senior Bowl last year and turn heads?

    P.S. I like both the Allen brothers but they’re undersized and I’m not sure they have the arm strength. Seem to see the field really well though and came off as gamers/leaders.

  • leftcoastdave

    Sorry to be off topic (somewhat), but the Tony Romo meme has been in the news. My question to the blog is what Dallas can give Da Bears by way of draft picks (or an OT) if Da Bears take on some or all of Romo’s contract. Dallas is over the cap, we have $54million. Getting some of their 1s, 2s or 3s while getting a relatively know (but perhaps too fragile) commodity looks to me like something to explore.

    Thoughts?

    • Waffle

      I’d take Romo if it meant high draft picks to us in the deal but if Jerry did that he’d be put down by a lone gunman.

      • CanadaBear

        That scenario is not unlike trading down, getting a ton of extra picks and getting every player you want with those picks. Kinda like hanging with Sasquatch. Not gonna happen.

      • The name is GP

        Unless the assassin uses a high caliber bullet, the shot will simply ricochet off the rubber embedded into his face.

    • willbest

      Dallas saves $7 million if they cut or trade Romo. Their problem with Romo is dead money. The only way that I know that the Bears could legally take on cap is if the Bears acquired (or use one they currently have) a player, gave him a bonus, and then traded him to the Cowboys for a draft pick and Romo.

      Basically you are looking at some deal where we trade Willie Young (who would have a $1 mil cap hit) for Tony Romo. They get $6 million more in cap room and trade their backup QB for a quality pass rusher. And you might get them to send draft compensation of some form in that.

    • beninnorcal

      No.

    • SC Dave

      Don’t do it

  • The name is GP

    Guys, can we agree if there is some play to get a FA QB, then the guy to go get would be AJ McCarron? He’s RFA, and he would just cost money and the Bungles would PROBABLY release for a high 2nd round pick, which we have. When Dalton was down, he led the team on efficient drives and looked sharp for the Bungles.

    http://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/12/7/13853196/aj-mccarron-among-top-nfl-quarterbacks-who-could-change-teams-in-2017

    • willbest

      I trust him more than Jimmy G thats for damn sure. I don’t know if I want to give up our 2nd for him. I figure there should be some quality DBs or Dline guys still available by the time we draft in the 2nd. Matt Barkley looked good after 2 games too.

    • beninnorcal

      I would be interested in such a move. Someone will probably over-pay for Garropolo(spelling?), and I hope it isn’t us. I want a defensive game-changer at round 1 pick 3.

      • SC Dave

        Preferably someone who get get us some turnovers.

    • BerwynBomber

      I would be onboard for McCarron but it should NOT preclude us from drafting a QB in one of the top two rounds during the next two years. Also liked what little I saw of McCarron in the ’15-’16 season.

      • MB30SD

        he’s a super high-character kid with an arm like a wet, overcooked noodle.

        Sound like anyone we know?!

        We already have Hoyer the Destroyer on the roster!

  • MB30SD

    Hee hee….

    the browns juuuuust about to Browns themselves in the draft again.

    …and with the 1st pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select….. RG IV!!!!

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000778243/article/report-browns-asked-deshaun-watson-to-play-in-senior-bowl

    • willbest

      That is good for us right. Watson and Trub go #1 and 2 and then we dodge those bullets because Pace isn’t crazy enough to go Kizer and we end up with Garrett?

      • MB30SD

        yep, that’s what I was alluding to.

        #1. Watson
        #2. Trubinsky
        #3. Whoeverthefuckwewant!!!! WOOO HOOOO!!

        • CanadaBear

          You know Trubisky’s draft stock will skyrocket because he looks like he’s the favorite to win the underwear olympics. Whether that’s at the combine or his pro day. There’s plenty of time for someone else to fall in love with Watson or some other QB that tests well. This could happen!

      • AlbertInTucson

        I approve that message.

  • MB30SD

    Btw, how fucking drunk was Kraft last night. That dumb motherfucker KNOWS he’s going to be on TV after the game. Stop drinking dude!

    …that or he’s had a stroke, and I apologize to him and his family.

    • CanadaBear

      Was he as fucked up as Ted Turner when he won the sailboat race?

      • MB30SD

        he was speaking very very slowly and slurring words. my buddy who’s a big pats fan (from there) says he was fucked up.

        • The name is GP

          it’s Boston.

          • MB30SD

            #massholes

    • willbest

      Maybe he had to take a shot every time the Pats scored. You don’t know what 75 year old billionaires get themselves into up there in their luxury box.

      • MB30SD

        fair enough

    • beninnorcal

      All the Pats fans were probably on the same level, speaking the same drunken-dialect.

    • BearDown100393

      CTE+ owner style

    • Sauron’s right eyeball

      Eat, drink and be Merry?

  • BillW

    Couple random points:

    Poor Al was on the blog all by himself last night. There used to be more fun things to do by oneself – but at his age and mine I guess the blog is just as good?

    As mentioned – the average score against the Packers for all of Rodgers playoff losses is mid 30s. I think he has earned the right to call for Thompson to step aside now and for Capers to be fired.

    For what it is worth – the only team Rodgers has beaten to get to the SB is our beloved. I think he has earned the right to call for the Bears to get good enough to get there again.

    Hillarious sign at the Dallas Stars hockey game over the weekend:
    Tonight’s attendance: 1.5 million.
    (Edit – not trying to start a political discussion. Just thought it was funny.)

  • Sactowns#1

    Jimmy G, your next QB!

    • willbest

      You better be trolling.

    • beninnorcal

      Nah, our first round pick will be spent wisely on something besides a qb

  • The name is GP
    • willbest

      I never understood what Yahoo had that Verizon wanted.

      • The name is GP

        You could have just omitted the last three words.

        • willbest

          I played a lot of Spades, Hearts, and Euchre on yahoo games back in the day. But I think they closed that down in the last couple years.

  • The name is GP

    Wait, what? The Browns have $50M to spend?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2atC_PUUAErqs4.jpg:large

  • willbest

    The Last Jedi eh… I played KOTOR… there is always another Sith and Jedi.

    On that note, I did get to see Rogue One this weekend. Enjoyed the last 30 minutes, the rest of it was meh. I think the best part was the preview featuring Rocket and Baby Groot though.

  • The name is GP

    From some page:

    But with Matt Ryan at quarterback, Jones at wide receiver, and the two-headed backfield of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, the high-scoring Falcons are reminiscent of the Greatest Show on Turf teams in St. Louis in terms of multiple options and aggressive approach on offense.

    So it’s the league’s No. 1 scoring offense (Atlanta) squaring off against the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (New England) on Sunday, Feb. 5 in Houston.

    There have been only six such matchups previously in Super Bowl history, most recently Super Bowl XLVIII three years ago between Denver and Seattle. The team with the No. 1 scoring offense has won only one of those matchups, in Super Bowl XXIV when San Francisco beat Denver to end the 1989 season.

    Hmmmm……

    • willbest

      Atlanta can improve on Denver’s showing if they don’t botch the snap on the opening play for a safety

    • willbest

      Kyle Shanahan OC record against Darth Hoodie

      Win with Texans: 34-27 week 17, 2009 (Reliant Stadium)
      Loss with Skins: 27-34 week 14, 2011 (Fed Ex Field)

      Dan Quinn has faced off against Hoodie as a DC or Asst. HC only once and that was the SB a couple years back where the seahawks lost 24-28.

    • AlbertInTucson

      And Belicheat actually BEAT “The Greatest Show on Turf”.

  • bearfacts

    Expecting the Bears to actually draft a franchise type QB with that #3 pick has about the same odds as me striking oil in my backyard or finding a gold nugget in the front yard. The odds are seriously against it.

    Neither John Fox or Dowell Loggains have ever developed a top pro QB so why in the hell should we spend a top five pick on one when we’d only be drafting him for the next HC anyway. Fox is a lame duck HC in 2018 and we all know that. He’d have to practically get to the SB to save his job and they won’t even get close to the playoffs.

    • MB30SD

      jeeess

    • willbest

      Because the McCaskeys want to give the Yorks a run for their money on mismanagement.

      • MB30SD

        they’re knocking it out of the park for the last 10 years, so there’s that.

    • Sauron’s right eyeball

      When pigs fly. You get an A+ on concept alone but the Bears need new ownership period. How can we make this happen?

      • SC Dave

        We can’t.

        • Sauron’s right eyeball

          Surely the Pope can make them an offer they can’t refuse? No?

          • MB30SD

            No

    • This is how I’m leaning too. Fox is no “QB guru”. Might be in his last season as an NFL HC. The QB class is not rated highly. Fox was not Pace’s selection. So why draft a QB high?

      Doesn’t really make sense to me. If someone like Kizer or Tribusky are there in the 2nd, then maybe Pace goes for value, but otherwise, I just don’t see it.

      Anything later really doesn’t matter. Chances of a mid-rounder QB starting are usually slim, and in spite of everyone clamoring for a QB to “develop” how many of them are actually worth developing?

      Not to mention that the Bears DESPERATELY need playmakers everywhere else and usually those first 3 rds is where they’re found.

    • Huge Bears Penis

      wow you are so lucky you have a chance to strike oil in your backyard and find gold in your front.

  • MB30SD

    So here’s my fucking what we really SHOULD do to lay the foundation for a Dynasty going forward, not at all what we actually WILL do in the 2017 offseason. All in a few easy steps. Ready?

    1. Fire that abject shitweasle Sweaty Teddy… like TOFUCKINGDAY!!!

    2. Hire Nationwide as head of football ops

    3. Let Ryan Pace completely run the show like he should be able to

    4. FIRE WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S… TOFUCKINGDAY!!! Dude is turrible and already has one foot on his boat in the bah-heemahs.

    5. Hire Matt Patricia the second those fucks loose the SB to the dirty birdies and matty iceballs. That kids is either going to be a fucking force (a la quinn) or a bomb… but whatever the case, he’s a young, hungry, aggressive beast who’s been taught by the devil himself and will get his shot with someone who’s willing to take a shot. What the fuck do we have to lose at this juncture?!? I think he’s going to be a stud, so let’s take a flyer on him and start our dynasty now!

    6. FA – Eric Berry, Will Hill, a TE, a QB (glennon? NOT romo), a DL, a OT, and whatever other stockpile of DBs we can afford

    7. Malik Hooker or Thomas (or Allen) @ 3

    8. Sell the farm to get your franchise QB in a much stronger draft class next year.

    9. Playoffs… SB… DYNASTY!

    You’re welcome.

    • Tortured Bear fan

      Patricia is a Bellichick clon minded…. 2nd. option after Shannahan

      • MB30SD

        ? neither has ever been a head coach, we’re both just guessing. But pretty sure I know what kind of guy patricia is… check out what AB was able to do last night.

        BEAST!

        we’re the chi bears not air coryell my man.

        DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE!

      • Irish Sweetness

        I like the idea of Kyle S. He just succeeds wherever he is.

        • Tortured Bear fan

          sadly, it seems he accepted the HC´s vacant at SF.

    • Big Mike

      you crazy

      • MB30SD

        Crazy como un zorro!!

  • willbest

    “What’s up with the anti-Jimmy G sentiment? How on earth would anyone
    have developed a negative attitude towards him? He’s barely played.” – Jeff

    I have said before
    1) He had 2 starts and injured himself. So concerns about durability
    2) He has only played 2 games, so defenses don’t have any tape on him.
    3) Belichick has a history of making Brady’s backups look good and then those backups don’t work well when they have to deal with a new system
    4) Brady is 39 years old, and if the Patriots are willing to part with Jimmy G they either think a) He isn’t a suitable heir to Brady; b) Brady isn’t all that special and they can make anybody look good. In either case you don’t want Jimmy G. But in the latter you very much want to back the money truck up to the McDanniels’ residence

    • The name is GP

      #4 is actually a solid point likely to sway the judge, counselor.

    • Tortured Bear fan

      Y´r right, it´s a system product..

    • Big Mike

      With all of that said, look at it a different way. If he was coming out of the draft this year, with the same experience, polish and skill set that he has now, everyone would be drooling over him.

      • willbest

        That’s fine but the Patriots have studied him extensively and decided that their long term answer is in the draft still

        • MB30SD

          Have they… Or are they just loading up because they can?

          With their usual 30 draft picks even though they’re usually in the fucking Superbowl. It’s like he’s an evil sourcerer

          • Huge Bears Penis

            especially since Brady says he can play for another 10 years

          • CanadaBear

            With a little luck the Pats will trade JG and Brady has to retire with some malady about a month later.

          • willbest

            I am convinced that there is a moneyball for football and only the Pats have cracked it.

          • MB30SD

            Yep, his name is Bill bellicheat

        • Big Mike

          No the economics of it are that if they want to get something for him, this year is the time. He’s a free agent after next season. If they trade him, what they’ve decided is he’s not going to be better than Tom Brady in 2018 because they can’t pay and/or play both of them.

          • willbest

            Sure they can. If he rides pine behind Brady in 2017 nobody is going to give him more than Chase Daniels money. 3yr 7mil a year. And Brady is 41 in 2018

            And look at what you are buying with G. A 1 year evaluation before he forces you to tag him at 21.5 million and then he goes wherever he wants in 2019

  • BerwynBomber

    The scary thing about NE is it might be their best team, short of their 18-1 team, they have had during the Belichick/Brady era. The Pats are very well-rounded.

    • The name is GP

      The Steelers punched every other team in the mouth, but the Pats on a week rest ran them over, injured their star RB and shut them the fuck down.

      That secondary is tough and watching them against the Birds should be fun.

      • AlbertInTucson

        …and got torched by the legendary, Chris Hogan.

        • BerwynBomber

          NE is always the one place that will have more white receivers than the Cheese.

      • SC Dave

        And planted some fuckwit at the hotel to pull a fire alarm.

    • MB30SD

      should be a great game. I’m hoping the birds win… MUCH more likable team.

      That said, it is satan incarnate we’re talking about, so not holding my breath.

      • leftcoastdave

        Matt Ryan, BC good Catholic boy. Beat ND on a Hail Mary.

        Would be great to see him MVP of Super Bowl.

        • Johnnywad

          God must have been so conflicted that day.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Which one?

          • AlbertInTucson

            That would be “Airzitout”, the god of the gridiron.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Doesn’t there have to be an El in there somewhere?

          • AlbertInTucson

            No EL in ZEUS…?

            “AirzitoutEL would sound like an Aztec god.

            2nd cousin to Quetzelquotal.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Actually, Zeus is Greek for Ba-el. Those ancient Egypto Hebrews named everything after a star. Crazy bastards.

          • AlbertInTucson

            Well, I STILL like AIRZITOUT.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Correction it’s the Greek depiction of the same gof in mythology. Not that it matters.

          • MB30SD

            Who?

  • Game of Breath (GP)

    Cool. Jimmy Harbaugh is taking the Michigan football team to Italy to indulge in Italian women and practice in the Colosseum.

    http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/18539400/jim-harbaugh-michigan-planning-spend-week-spring-practice-rome

    • willbest

      It’s been a decade since I saw it, but I am pretty sure you can’t fit a football field in the Coliseum, even if the floor above the underground tunnels were intact.

      • you don’t need a full-size field. Most indoor practice facilities I’ve seen are only 60 yards.

        • Sauron’s right eyeball

          So that’s why we’ve been sucking so badly as of late?

          • MB30SD

            No that’s all Ted’s fault

      • AlbertInTucson

        FYI: The “Field” area of the Colosseum in Rome, in feet, is 287 x 180.

        • willbest

          It didn’t even feel that big. Quite frankly the structure doesn’t do the staged photos justice (same with the great wall) until you realize it was built 1900 (and 800) years ago.

        • MB30SD

          Almost

    • willbest

      Also, I applaud Harbaughs creative work around the NCAA rules on not paying players. I am sure the prospect of annual European trips will have no bearing on top high school players commitment decisions.

    • BearDown100393

      Alternative practicing.

    • Bender McLugh

      They should go to Parma & play for pizza

      • MB30SD

        Stop that!!! That whole country is delicious

        • Bender McLugh

          but Parma….mmmmm Parma……

          • MB30SD

            Exactly. You can walk into any tiny Fucking hole in the wall mom and pop shop in that entire nation and get the best pizza/pasta you’ve ever eaten. It’s like magic.

            …That and the women walking around the Florence train station is like nothing you’ve ever seen

          • CanadaBear

            I was in shock when I arrived at the Amsterdam city center by train from the airport. Beautiful tall women everywhere. mmmmmmmmmm

          • MB30SD

            yes, and a bunch of dodgy fucking addict bums.

            I liked amsterdam ok, I’m just MUCH more of a Southern European guy. I have a total love affair with Spain, France, and then Italy and Portugal… in that order.

            Going to spain is amazing. There’s like 4-5 different countries in one. The north east is basque (my fav), the catalonians in the south, then the castillians in the center, and some kind of weird fucking spanish/Portuguese mix in the west. Love that country man.

          • CanadaBear

            Everyone I’ve talked to that has been to Spain loved it. I didn’t find Amsterdam full of dodgy bums except in areas where you expect to see them. I felt safe walking around at night. That was about 18 years ago.

  • MB30SD
    • CanadaBear

      I wouldn’t of did what I did if I hadn’t been high! Seemed like a hell of a good idea at the time.

    • SC Dave

      Prosecute to the maximum extent allowed by law. Reckless endangerment for starters.

      • MB30SD

        settle down big boy, matty ice is going to doll out justice like a super league member come the 5th!

        • AlbertInTucson

          I wish I could believe that.

        • SC Dave

          This.

      • willbest

        Maybe he had an essay to finish and that the Steelers being there was a coincidence.

    • AlbertInTucson

      They don’t have fans.

      They have Minions.

    • Bender McLugh

      Grassroots Belicheatin’

  • AlbertInTucson

    So, the line opened at NE-3.

    I think I would lay the 3.

    I expect it to get bigger.

    • BerwynBomber

      Ditto. Wouldn’t be surprised if it is NE (-4.5 or even -5) by kickoff.

    • willbest

      This is a type of game where I think the spread isn’t going to be relevant. I think either the Pats blow Falcons out of the water or the Falcons win. Basically, does Hoodie have an answer for the Falcon’s offense, because I don’t see a scenario where Brady doesn’t get at least 26 points.

    • AlbertInTucson

      I think the Falcons WILL turn the ball over and The Patriots will not.

      Atlanta gave the Packers 4 opportunities on Sanday and GB went 0 for 4.

      I submit New England would have pounced on at LEAST 2 of those opportunities,
      especially the two poorly thrown passes.

  • MB30SD
    • Scharfinator

      Jess for yetpacks?

      • MB30SD

        Alalalalallalalala!!!!

    • SC Dave

      Some people have too much money.

      • MB30SD

        Earl

  • Big Mike

    Fuck the Patriots and Martellus Bennet and Chicken Dinner

    • Bender McLugh

      hahaha some of that Balmer Ravens fan speak seeping into ya?

      • Big Mike

        I’m done with the Patriots. A crushing defeat is what I’d like for them. I’m actually a pretty miserable football fan when I’ve been thinking about the off season moves for my Bears, for months, while other teams are still playing. So other than whoever plays the Packers, it’s a question of which fans have had it too good, for too long.

        • SC Dave

          Plus, they cheat.

          • MB30SD

            …And cheaters NEVER prosper… We’ll, almost never…. OK, so 4 times in the last 10 years, but only THAT much.

        • Bender McLugh

          I feel ya

    • MB30SD

      Agree! Especially cd

  • Huge Bears Penis

    I personally don’t want it to happen but many have been talking about the possibility of trading for Jimmy G. On the plus side the Bears should have a pretty good scouting report on him. Besides the 2 games of film, the Bears and Pats had joint practices last off season. This should have allowed the coaching staff to get a good look at him. Plus we had a Preseason game where Jimmy G played into the 3rd quarter. At the very least we would not be going into it like Houston did with Brock Osweiler.

    • Big Mike

      More tape on him than whichever QB we could take at three. He’s got a number of years in the league and has been with Hoodie and Brady that whole time. If the cost is less than the 3rd pick in the draft, he’s a steal. He doesn’t need to be Brady, he needs to be better than Hoyer/Barkley/Cutler

      • Tortured Bear fan

        it isn´t much to ask

  • Big Mike

    I love this story http://sportsmockery.com/2017/01/falcons-player-gives-best-reason-ever-for-why-they-crushed-packers/2/ (link is to page 2, where the good stuff is)

    A Falcon’s player says the reason they crushed the Packers is the refs just let them play and the game was called fairly.

    • Scharfinator

      Another article on there talking about how the Texans would be interested in Cutler. I could honestly see that, if they can somehow afford him with the albatross that is Osweiler on their neck.

      • Huge Bears Penis

        they do have 25 mill in cap space. not sure if they are losing anyone of significance to FA.

      • Big Mike

        I saw the article. I’d love to see Cutler with Houston. My take is that’s close to a SB team with Cutler. It would pretty much end the debate on Cutler either way.

        • MB30SD

          Hee hee.

          And we aaaalllll know which way it ends… Most likely with a strip-sack for 6 the other way.

          • Big Mike

            Hater.

          • MB30SD

            Nooooo mike… Truther!

          • Big Mike

            We’ll see. I think he’ll do well there and take the team further than they’ve been.

          • MB30SD

            Suuuure. Just like coming from Denver did for us!

            So a mountain lion does change his spots?!?!!

            It’ll be a miracle of nature I tell ya!!!

  • BerwynBomber

    So I assume Emery gets a ring if the Falcons win the SB?

    • Huge Bears Penis

      do they give SB rings to janitors?

      • Bender McLugh

        Boom!

        • MB30SD

          Bazinga!?

    • Tortured Bear fan

      Bennett & McClellin could also.

  • BearDown100393

    Erin Andrews battling cancer.

    • MB30SD

      : (

  • Game of Breath (GP)

    Rapey Ben likes the money and the prestige that allows him to talk co-eds into bathroom stalls.

    He’s not so hot on the constant beating his body takes.

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/24/ben-roethlisberger-to-evaluate-if-theres-going-to-be-a-next-season/

    • BearDown100393

      Normally I empathize with the injuries sustained in football. Except this guy.

    • MB30SD

      waaaaah, tough being a multi millionaire super star and being given a pass for raping young girls.

      smfh

  • Game of Breath (GP)

    Romo and Elway seen sharing a cab.

    • BearDown100393

      Was Siemian driving the cab?

      • MB30SD

        hahahaha… if he was he’d be mediocre at it.

    • BerwynBomber

      Would be interesting to see what DEN would do with Semien and Lynch at that point unless they would carry three QBs on their 53.

      • AlbertInTucson

        With Lynch being a first-rounder and known to be a bit of a project, I would think Semien would be odd man out in that equation.

        • BerwynBomber

          My guess too, although missing on a first round QB isn’t that punitive to a team in the past, given the recent CBA.

          • AlbertInTucson

            Even with the rookie wage scale, teams are LOATHE to admit they whiffed on a #1.

          • BerwynBomber

            Of course, but in some cases round 1 rookie QB contracts are half what they once were. The bottom line still matters.

    • willbest

      Elway isn’t stupid enough to trade for him. Unless its like a 6th rounder.

      • AlbertInTucson

        He offered Osweiler, what? $17 million…?

  • AlbertInTucson

    “General Draft Success”

    The Patriots offensive starters consist of 1 guy drafted in each of rounds 1 thru 7 and 4 un-drafted free agents.

    • Sactowns#1

      Wow.

    • MB30SD

      #equalpartsmagicandevil

  • Game of Breath (GP)

    “Dear Fans,

    I know I am a beard and don’t really sleep with him or interact with him in an intimate way unless it’s on Instagram organized by his agent, but I can see he’s really hurting and wants you to know he appreciates your support.”

    http://www.sacbee.com/entertainment/ent-columns-blogs/video-break/article128426824.html

    • Sactowns#1

      What the hell are you doing reading the Sac Bee?
      And I really do wish Aaron would come out. It’s a shame no high caliber NFL athlete has come out as of yet.

    • Sactowns#1

      And stars and hearts? What is she, 12?

    • MB30SD

      That pic is so so sweet. Eat it you packer dickbag

  • MB30SD

    like this kid, a lot. If we somehow steal him in the 3rd or later that would be awesome.

    http://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/24/ben-boulware-clemson-2017-nfl-draft-preparation-senior-bowl

    Then we can have TWO chris borland lites!

    • SC Dave

      Attitude looks right, that’s for sure.

      • MB30SD

        never mind the attitude, it’s like he has a magnet for the football. Kid’s a total stud, he’s just a little small/slow for the NFL… one worries.

    • Bender McLugh

      3rd round would be a steal

      • MB30SD

        STEAL! but we have more important needs in 1 and 2 my maings… can’t pick him that high.

        Now, if Pace were to engineer some kind of whizz bang trade to get us back into the second and we picked him up, I’d be pretty fired up.

        We could put them both in and call them:
        – Ivory & Ivory
        – Salt & Salt
        – Blow & Blow

        …well… you get my point.

      • leftcoastdave

        Walter ranks him very precisely in rounds 3-5 on their dart board, others generally lower. Will be fun to watch.

  • Brian Hoyer has the skills and talent to pass for 4,500 yards and 38 TDs next year while we groom our Walter Payton of QBs. #alternativefacts

    • Bender McLugh

      Those are some might fine facts, son

      • willbest

        MB’s analysis places it at 4800 yards, 32 TDs, no INTs, 16 ppg, and 3-4 wins.

        • well, sure. because it’s 4790 yards outside the red zone.

    • Game of Breath (GP)

      Brian Hoyer, sweet destroyer

  • Game of Breath (GP)

    Raymont “Ultraback” Harris – 4th Rounder, Ohio State, 150th pick overall.
    Jordan Howard – 4th Rounder, Indiana, 150th pick overall.

    Ok. So all the Bears need to do now is pick a Big Ten running back with the 150th pick in every draft and we’re set. Easy.

  • Game of Breath (GP)
    • willbest

      I wonder how many NFC teams that is true of

  • Huge Bears Penis

    new thread.

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