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Data Returns: Statistically Profiling the Ideal Quarterback

| February 12th, 2017

This is the 2nd installment of a monthly offseason piece I’ll be doing here at DaBearsBlog, helping fill the content void of the long offseason. Each one will be a numbers-crunching look at something Bears related in which I attempt to earn the “Data” moniker so kindly bestowed on me by the comments section regulars and, more importantly, answer a Bears question that I’ve been wondering about. If you have anything you’d like me to look into, let me know in the comments or email me at woodjohnathan1@gmail.com and I’ll see what I can do. 


By all accounts, it seems the Bears will be acquiring the man they hope will be their quarterback of the future this offseason. Ryan Pace was spotted scouting pretty much all of the top quarterbacks in person throughout last fall, and his end of the season press conference was centered around a discussion of what he’ll be looking for in a franchise quarterback.

With that in mind, it would be wise for any Bears fan to pay close attention to the quarterbacks at the top of the draft this year. I started doing just that back in November, when I looked at quarterbacks drafted between 2011 and 2015 and found teams looking for a starter should focus on the top of round 1 or round 2 (http://bit.ly/2lhS3t0). Luckily for the Bears that fits either of their first two picks.

Building an Ideal QB Profile

Now I want to focus on what they should be looking for with one of those picks (thanks to DBB’s Andrew Dannehy for giving me this idea). Here’s how I went about doing that:

  • I looked at all 1st and 2nd round QBs drafted between 2011 and 2015 and compiled a bunch of data about their physical measurements, passing stats from their last year in college, and team success in college. The full list can be seen here: http://bit.ly/2kQ8v2L.
  • I split the QBs into guys who are established starters (Newton, Luck, Mariota, Winston, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Dalton, Carr), guys who might be starters going forward (Kaepernick, Garoppolo, Bortles), and everybody else.
  • I averaged the data together for each group and especially compared starters vs. everybody else (non-starters). 6 traits were identified that were significantly different.
  • For each trait, I sorted the quarterbacks from best to worst and looked for a “benchmark” value, which most of the starters hit and most of the non-starters missed. This always fell such that 5 or 6 of the 8 starters were above the benchmark; there was typically a significant dropoff after this point such that this was a logical cutoff.

Based on this, here’s the ideal profile I found to look for in a highly drafted QB coming out of college:

  • He should win at least 77% of his college starts (6/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
  • He should win a conference title (6/8 starters hit, 4/9 nonstarters)
  • His final college season should feature at least 8.7 yards per passing attempt (5/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
  • His final college season should feature a touchdown on at least 7.3% of his throws (6/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
  • His final college season should feature a TD/INT ratio of at least 3.7:1 (6/8 starters hit, 2/9 nonstarters)
  • His final college season should feature a college passer rating of at least 166 (5/8 starters hit, 2/9 nonstarters)

There didn’t seem to be any difference in the physical profiles of the QBs based on their height, weight, or hand size at the Combine. The important part of the Combine for QBs is their interviews, but we don’t get that data. Ignore the measurables; they are basically irrelevant for QBs.

Putting the Profile To the Test

I then went back and looked at every QB in the study to see how many of the six benchmarks they met (starters shown in bold).

  • 6/6: Newton, Mariota, Bridgewater, Dalton
  • 5/6: Luck, Garropolo
  • 4/6: RG3, Manziel
  • 3/6: Carr, Bortles, Manuel, Smith
  • 2/6: Winston, Weeden
  • 1/6: Kaepernick, Ponder
  • 0/6: Tannehill, Osweiler, Gabbert, Locker

Every single player who hit at least 5 benchmarks is now an established starter except for Jimmy Garoppolo, who has spent 3 years sitting behind Tom Brady but is likely to be traded this offseason and get his chance to start next year. He certainly seems to fit the profile of a successful NFL QB based on his performance in college, though it’s worth noting that he’s the only QB on this list who played in FCS and thus comparing his stats to the others’ might not be fair.

As you move to players who hit fewer of the benchmarks, the odds start to drop. There are certainly some successful players there, including Carr, Winston, and Tannehill, but the busts outnumber them and all fall in this region.

Winston and Tannehill are two interesting cases. Winston hit both team markers but none of the individual success thresholds, though he would have hit all of them in his first season as a starter. Tannehill hit none of them, but his situation is fairly unique as somebody who switched from WR to QB halfway through his college career. A few other players on this list have had moderate success-Kaepernick, Bortles, and RG3 immediately come to mind, but none have established themselves as the long-term answer at QB that the Bears are looking for this offseason.

This list also highlights the shortcomings of this approach. RG3 and Manziel both looked like solid prospects based on hitting 4 of the 6 benchmarks, but both washed out in the NFL. They both had off-field issues that contributed significantly to those problems, and both played in offenses that are not typically transferable to the NFL. I am not evaluating personality or style of offense in this approach at all.

Evaluating 2017 QBs

Now that I have a general profile for what recently successful QBs have looked like coming out of college, let’s examine the top options in the 2017 draft to see if any of them fit the bill. The results for the 5 QBs who I’ve seen generally mentioned as potential round 1-2 prospects are listed below.

  1. DeShaun Watson: 2/6 (winning %, conference title)
  2. Mitch Trubisky: 1/6 (TD/INT ratio)
  3. Pat Mahomes: 1/6 (TD/INT ratio)
  4. Brad Kaaya: 1/6 (TD/INT ratio)
  5. DeShone Kizer: 0/6

Well that’s not very promising. Based on this approach, the QBs at the top of the draft this year do not look like good prospects. The only one who fits any sort of profile matching a recently successful individual is DeShaun Watson, who matches the same 2 team-focused traits that Jameis Winston did. Unlike Winston, however, Watson does not have a previous season on his resume that would have checked off many of the individual performance benchmarks.

Of course, it is worth noting the difference between correlation and causation here. When looking at a sample size of 20 QBs, I identified 6 traits to separate 8 of them from the other 12. This really separated 5 of those 8 out, but there is no guarantee that will be a predictive model going forward. It might just be that, in this particular sample, these successful players all coincidentally shared those traits. The smaller a sample is, the greater the likelihood of that correlation being random. 

I could look farther back to try and increase the sample size, but I don’t want to do that because of how much the game has changed for passing offenses in college and the NFL. Passing stats from 5 years ago are difficult to compare to now, but 10 years ago would be completely obsolete.

Conclusions

Let me caution again that this is only intended to be one way of evaluating prospects and is certainly not going to be infallible. Even within this method, the success rate is not 100%, and this includes zero film study on my part, so it’s not intended to be all-inclusive.

With that said, this approach certainly dictates staying away from the QBs at the top of the draft, with a possible exception of DeShaun Watson. It also makes trading for Jimmy Garoppolo look like an appealing option. Comparable college profiles to Garoppolo have a very strong success rate in this study, though of course they all played in the FBS while he was in the FCS. 

Before looking into this, I was firmly in the “no” camp on Garropolo, as I don’t think New England would trade a QB they thought was good when Tom Brady is approaching 40 years old. But this study has me re-considering that stance. Consider me officially on the Jimmy G bandwagon. 

Tagged: , ,

  • MB30SD

    Konichiwa bitches.

    Good job data

  • One Dump from Retirement (GP)

    I averaged the data together for each group and especially compared starters vs. everybody else (non-starters). 6 traits were identified that were significantly different. [GP screams]
    For each trait, I sorted the quarterbacks from best to worst and looked for a “benchmark” value [GP screams again], which most of the starters hit and most of the non-starters missed. This always fell such that 5 or 6 of the 8 starters were above the benchmark; there was typically a significant dropoff after this point such that this was a logical cutoff. [GP face palms]
    Based on this, here’s the ideal profile I found to look for in a highly drafted QB coming out of college:

    He should win at least 77% of his college starts (6/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
    He should win a conference title (6/8 starters hit, 4/9 nonstarters)
    His final college season should feature at least 8.7 yards per passing attempt (5/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
    His final college season should feature a touchdown on at least 7.3% of his throws (6/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
    His final college season should feature a TD/INT ratio of at least 3.7:1 (6/8 starters hit, 2/9 nonstarters)
    His final college season should feature a college passer rating of at least 166 (5/8 starters hit, 2/9 nonstarters)

    Sigh.

    • Sauron’s right eyeball

      Fuzzy math?

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      It’s certainly not the most statistically rigorous study. That wasn’t my intent. With such a small sample size, that’s not really a practical approach; but I wanted to keep the sample size small because expanding it out by round starts to dilute the comparisons because you have guys viewed as top-level prospects side by side with those who weren’t. I didn’t want to go farther back in time because then passing stats are hard to compare as the game has changed.

      Like I say in the article, this is not intended to be an all-inclusive approach. It’s just one way of looking at things.

  • Sauron’s right eyeball

    No love for Kizer. Sorry Murph.

    • DaMurph

      Well can’t win a conference if you don’t play in one. This past year he had no tight end and no receivers of note. I think he will be successful but who knows with QB’S

      • MB30SD

        Stop it

    • AlbertInTucson

      0 for 6 on The Professor’s scale does not help Kizer’s case.

  • BearDown100393
  • Clarence Harris

    Great article, I was against trading for Jimmy G, also until recently, when I changed my mind after watching both of his starts this last season. Watching both starts I saw a guy who can make quick decisions, has a very quick release, knows how to manipulate the safety, and reads defenses well(not great but I attribute that to lack of starts). The only knocks I can see on tape is he took limited hits and had injuries problems. If the Bears, can use their great relationship with the Pats to foster a deal where the Bears gives a 3 this year and protect themselves by adding conditional clauses giving them a 2, or 1 next year depending on how he preforms that would be a win/win situation for both teams. The Bears could protect themselves from a bust because he may just be a product of the great Pats system. Another thing that will hinder the Bears if they decide to go the trade route is the other potential suitors for Jimmy G, the Browns and 49er’s have more picks and cap room to out bid the Bears. The one thing the Bears have in their favor is Jimmy G has a say in where he goes, being this is the final year of his rookie contract. If he wants to play for his hometown he could refuse to sign long term deal with teams other than the Bears. No team would wants to trade for a QB and give up what the Pats asking to have a QB walk after one season especially if its a very productive one. This model is a decent indicator but not a great one, I believe Kizer has the biggest upside of any QB in this draft(I know upside is not a good draft indicator of success). What hindered Kizer’s is the idiot he played for in Brian Kelly, who stunted the kids growth. Ryan Pace, has a tuff evaluations and decisions to make in the coming weeks after the combine, one that will either place the Bears back on the track of success or send them spiraling even further into the abyss. Ether way Bears for life!!!!!!!!! Bear Down

  • Sauron’s right eyeball

    Hey Data, here’s an interesting piece on Siemian from before the season last year. It was spot on.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/broncos-trevor-siemian-college-career-stats-northwestern-starter-denver/pgoyeximjcm21skmo47il94em

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      I said that last year to all the NU fans I interact with. They didn’t want to hear it.

      Siemian’s overall college stats were well below average. There is literally no precedent I could find of anybody with a college career like his becoming a solid NFL starter.

      • Sauron’s right eyeball

        Interesting that an Organization like the Broncos missed it or did they?

        • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

          he looked better last year than I expected.

          They spent a conditional 7th round pick on him. That’s basically a priority UDFA. They believed so much in him after 1 year that they spent their 1st round pick on a QB and brought in Mark Sanchez to be the bridge. He just happened to beat Sanchez out.

          I’m guessing Lynch is their starter most of this year.

  • leftcoastdave

    For what it’s worth, I still like Matt Barkley. Keep four QB’s including JC and trade him away early into the season for some real value or cut him if he doesn’t cut the mustard.

    Why overpay in a bad QB year when there is so much talent available at other positions, including DL, TE, DB’s and possibly even OT???

    Make the monsters of the midway great again, starting with DDDDDDDDDDDDD Fence!!!

    • AlbertInTucson

      I think the plethora of turnovers from Barkley as his “audition” progressed knocked him off the Bears’ radar.

      • leftcoastdave

        So true, but look at what he was thrown into without the reps and unknown receivers rotating in and out who would frequently drop great throws? Was he ever ahead on the down and distance meter, let alone the scoreboard? That was a baptism of fire.

        • AlbertInTucson

          I get the drops and defended/supported him early on, but the interceptions AND his decsion-making just seemed to get more and more horrific as his reign went on.

    • BerwynBomber

      Pace knows he has to do something at QB, IMO. Yes, he could kick the can down the road until the ’18 draft, but I’m guessing if he does that, he will at least bring in Glennon or Foles type for this year. Hell, even a guy like Sanchize. Just something different.

      If Cutty returns, I’m betting we draft someone this year.

      Would be surprised if Pace stood completely pat this off-season, which is basically what you are suggesting.

      • leftcoastdave

        If its durability and experience he wants, take C.J. Beathard who started at Iowa for two years. He’ll likely be available in the fifth round. Nathan Peterman might also be available that late as well as FCS talent. But the D is so close to being fixed, that should be the top priority. And talking about Iowa, Desmond King (CB) would make an awesome FS.

  • BearDown100393

    We have Jay.

    • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

      And Magic Johnson still has AIDS.

      • MB30SD

        Too soon

  • Huge Bears Penis

    Curious how a couple of the non 1st/2nd rounders that ended up starters stacked up like Wilson, Taylor, Cousins

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      I originally looked at 1st-4th rounders in this study, but found it was messing with the numbers because 3rd/4th rounders are generally worse prospects and have worse stats. So I took them out to compare more apples to apples with “top” prospects. (FWIW, I believe Wilson met pretty much all of the criteria, I don’t remember with Cousins. I could go back and check when I’m at work tomorrow, I have the data saved there).

      This made sense to me too because I found the success rate of finding starting QBs dropped significantly after the 2nd round in this same time period when I looked at that in November. So this became “look at the places with the best odds of success and see if there’s anything you can find to improve those odds a bit more.”

      Completely Andrew’s idea. I have to give him credit for that.

      But like I said, no film study or context put in here, so anybody basing their entire decision making process on these results would be pretty foolish.

      • Huge Bears Penis

        Totally understand not worrying about anyone outside the 2nd round and that no one should make decisions just based on the results, I was just curious on the guys that are starters. How well did those 3 stack up with your criteria? Was it luck/unmeasurables that they have been successful or was it something that may have been able to be predicted?

        • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

          I should go back and check that data tomorrow. See if this might help identify mid-round sleepers.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Have you considered factoring in a Brady effect. World class player who almost gets ignored in the draft?

          • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

            Brady in college wasn’t that great though. He wasn’t bad, but his statistical performance wasn’t terrific either.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Yeah but he’s an example of a prototype lost in a system. That’s what stats can’t show you or lets say. a system in college that artificially elavates a QB’s value. It seems to me that outside the obvious NFL talents in college, it all comes down to scouts best guesses and legwork..

          • Waffle

            Wood, that season was weird. The Wolverine es would stall out, throw in Brady and win. Then the coach would go right back to the other QB until they stalled again. The coach did Brady no favors.

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            5$ for that coaches name yonny? C’mon now, no peeking. College road trip for your kids at stake.

          • Waffle

            Carr?

            No way Bo would mess that up.

  • BerwynBomber

    Interesting stuff. As you said, not meant to be all-inclusive but certainly shows some trends. Of course there will always be exceptions, and even with your six criteria, context can be everything.

    An extreme example this year could be someone like Zach Terrell of WMU as I am betting he might check off 6/6 of your criteria. But frankly his arm and stature are too slight to garner much interest professionally — at best, he is probably heading down the UDFA path.

    I wonder too if age tells us much. There is generally not a huge difference given the nature of the NFL’s strict draft eligibility (and the fact that there is no minor league system with unlimited eligibility). But you do see some differences. Most notably Weeden, who was ~27 when drafted. While on the flip side a guy Rodgers was barely 21.

    In other professional sports like basketball and baseball, the younger prospect the higher the upside is often a rule of thumb. But again, don’t know if that would apply to the NFL for a variety of reasons.

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      Yeah, this can get a bit murky with guys who are intellectually great to thrive in college but lack the physical tools to thrive in the NFL. That’s why I only looked at rd 1-2 picks, top prospects who will not include players like Terrell.

      • Sauron’s right eyeball

        There’s also the variable of weak ass schedules in college.

        • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

          Which is what gives me a bit of pause with Garoppolo. He was playing against the FCS, so how much value do those stats have?

          • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

            Yes, but Jimmy G also played well vs competition better than the SEC unlike the others.

            THE NFL

            But how much of that was Bill-Cassell effect?

            And round and round we go…

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Cassel was the warning shot for me and until I see Belicheat trade away 1, just one franchise QB, I ain’t biting. The most I pay for Garoppoli is a 2nd rounder. Period.

          • AlbertInTucson

            There ARE some precedents:

            Tony Romo- Eastern Ilinois.

            Ken Anderson -Augustana

            Phil Simms – Morehead State

          • BerwynBomber

            Flacco and Wentz too.

  • BearDown100393

    The other side of the coin needs measurement also. The probability of a NFL franchise to properly manage and develop a quarterback. Some teams historically seem better at this than others. Is the success or “bust” factor purely the fault of the quarterback?

  • Sauron’s right eyeball

    Here’s a little trip down memory lane. I’m sure AL and Canada remember some of the older guys.

    http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-college-football-players-that-were-an-nfl-bust.php

    • EnderWiggin

      Where is Tony Mandarich on that list?

      • AlbertInTucson

        Indeed. See my other post. He sould be at or near the top.

    • CanadaBear

      I don’t really consider Bo or Ricky as unsuccessful. Bo broke down and the expectations for Ricky were unreasonable.

      • Sauron’s right eyeball

        Yeah I agree. Those two older players were before my time. Bo could have been the greatest. Achilles had nuttin on him.

      • Cormonster

        I went and seen some rockin’ Americana bands on Friday and thought you might like this new song about the magical herb by The Band of Heathens. It’s kind of got a Jimmy Buffett feel to it.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej8OJswsbZ4

        • CanadaBear

          Two things jumped out at me. I loved the bit about the guy doing edibles and getting too high to sing harmony (that’s high!) and the pedal steel guitar. Lots of truth in that song!

          • Cormonster

            Yeah, the lyrics are so true about weed then and now. I took so many edibles once before a Pink Floyd tribute I was babbling like a drunk after the show and I was still high when I got up in the morning!

      • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

        Same. When Bo played, he dominated. “2nd fiddle to Marcus Allen” is not exactly a horrible thing. Isn’t Allen in the HOF? That’s like Young playing 2nd fiddle to Joe.

        Al Davis had some weird dynamics going on anyways.

        And lets not forget, Bo also played freaking baseball.

        I don’t think I’ve met a Raider’s fan who considers Bo Jackson a “failure”.

        Much like us with Sayers, they wonder “what might’ve been?”

        At the very very least he made the raiders a SHIT load of $, and lets not forget, the greatest Tecmo RB of all time!

        • Irish Sweetness

          Probably the most deadly back I ever saw anyway, and certainly the best backfield.

      • BerwynBomber

        Yeah, Williams was inconsistent but hard to say he was unsuccessful. Da Coach just paid too much for him.

        P.S. Schlichter, by most accounts, was an Elway-like talent but obviously had a train wreck of a personal life, even while in college.

        • AlbertInTucson

          The Bears looked long and hard at Schlichter before they picked McMahon.

          .

    • AlbertInTucson

      Lazy list.

      White (undrafted) and Toretta (7th round) shouldn’t even be on it.

      Their draft status’ demonstrate that NFL expectations were not high for either of them.

      • Sauron’s right eyeball

        Yeah, I thought that as well. I came across it while looking for something else.

        Added: I was looking for a list of subpar college QB’s that excelled in the NFL and found that. Evidently, there has never been a sucky college QB that became a star in the pro’s.

        • MB30SD

          Shocking right?!?!

      • Irish Sweetness

        Mandarich was a huge one. I remember that.

        Baltimore messed up. Who was taken the spot after Art Schlicter?

        The greatest quarterback of all time.

  • leftcoastdave

    I’ve enjoyed reading all of the “what ifs” here and elsewhere and compiled this “in a perfect world” trade down scenario. It is premised upon a) multiple needs for Da Bears, b) long term value (ie., cheap four or five year contracts), c) the limited number of blue chippers or QB adding value to the 1-6 picks and d) the unknown of what will be done in the FA market. It also presumes that Jeffrey, Royal and Hudson are cut loose along with much other flotsam and jetsam leaving a bunch of space on the roster and much money available to spend. It also allow for other QB options which do not include selling out the #3 pick. I’ve borrowed from Eric Lambert at Sports Mockery on those likely to want to move up.

    He points out that the Titans have #’s 5 and 18 along with two seconds and a third.. The value chart assigns 500 points to the swap for the 5 which is a high second plus any premium the Titans would pay if they were in love with a top three, ie., Myles Garret (if he falls that low), Allen, Thomas, Hooker or whomever.
    He also points to the Jets QB need sitting at #6. A swap would be worth 600 points, plus the bidding premium (if any), only 100 to swap out of 5 if a deal is first done with the Titans. If they want one of the top 3 QB’s on the board, they will be paying up.
    Then there’s Buffalo down at #10 and the chart value there is anywhere from 300 (from #6) to 900 swapping out of #3. That is the value of two seconds.
    Finally, there’s Cleveland at #12 with a ton of other picks in later rounds, and who knows who else might fall in love with a player like the Bears did Floyd last year. Even trading multiple times all the way out of the first round builds a solid roster for the future with emphasis on the D.

    With any luck, Da Bears could be looking at a lower first, but four or five picks in the second round to choose best available DL, TE, DBx2 plus OT and/or LB. Five or six top prospects playing on rookie contracts and creating competition.

    Why even think about giving up that #3 for a QB this year with so many needs and so much talent at those positions of need?

    • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

      Of those, I think Jets are most likely. They need a QB badly, and if there’s a QB they really like, I think they’re willing to trade up (But if they end up with Cargo…).

      Titans not so much. They have their QB, and a good nucleus. From what I’ve read, they’re in search of a #1WR, and history has shown that teams are willing to trade up for that #1, but is Mike Williams that guy? Dunno. By most accounts he’s not on the Julio Jones level.

      There’s also no blue-chip LT, which is fucking rare. That would help our cause a lot in trading down since many teams desperately need one (some may even argue Bears too)

      Bills are another promising suitor, but tbh, I think they’re a flaccid organization trying to rebuild themselves. I don’t think they’ll be aggressive enough esp after trading up to #4 for Watkins who has been inj more often than not.

      I have a sneaking suspicion the Browns will just settle for whatever QB falls to them at #12 and make him compete against Kessler who many in the organization believe to be Dalton-esque.

      They’re the Browns though, never know.

      Surprise team might be the Cards who ARE aggressive. If Arians believes in a QB he won’t hesitate to go after him IMO. Let’s hope they do love one under the radar and that he’s still there at #3.

    • Irish Sweetness

      Agreed. Cleveland might want Garret AND a QB. We drop to #12, maybe snag a falling Hooker (ahem) due to the injury cloud. But we gather high picks. I like it.

      • MB30SD

        0 out of…. ZERO. read Data’s stuff.

        Why do you always pick the sheite my maings?

      • leftcoastdave

        The problem with paying up for a newbie is the baptism of fire he will go through. Dak was successful why? Brady why? Build the team first! The O line is close. The receiving corp will need help. The D is ever so close and can be awesome after free agency and a good draft.

        Build it and they will come.

  • EnderWiggin
    • MB30SD

      Broke that dude’s Fucking ankles!!

  • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

    Like I said, trying to predict the next “franchise” QB is like trying to predict the next Gogh, Mozart, Conte….

    Hard stuff to apply objective criteria by. And the “subjective” part the avg fan isn’t privy to

    Like the famous Peyton interview in which he told the Colts in an interview that if they didn’t draft him, he’d come back and kick their ass, which sold them over Ryan Leaf.

    So hats of to Data for at least trying to create a framework

    And while I agree that “size” may not matter as much, I think there still is a threshold.

    Like, you can’t have 8inch hands at QB (Grossman?)

    There does indeed seem to be a correlation between hand size and ball security (McNabb? Goff?)

    The height and weight I think are more or less dependent on the player , but even then, it seems like if you’re under 6’4 and less than 230, you get hurt unless extremely mobile AND/OR smart (Brees, Wilson).

    Even Vadgers has been somewhat inj prone, and Cutler and Romo, etc (Jimmy 2-time?) and they’re all about 6’2 220 with a non-muscular build.

    The bigger guys seem to be a bit more sturdy (Eli, Rivers, Luck…)

    But again, I suppose it depends on the TYPE of QB.

    By Data’s other criteria though, this QB class really stuck out like a yellow tooth.

    Just. Ugh.

    (Curious where Tyrod, McCarron and Glennon would fit into that)

    Only reinforces my plan to build the trenches, secondary, and ride with a bargain “bridge” then go all-in next season.

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      I’m gonna go look at the 3 later-round guys who bucked this mold from these drafts (Wilson, Cousins, Taylor) tomorrow to see how they stacked up with these traits.

      • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

        I would suggest QBs who are “rumored” to Bears like Glennon, Tyrod, maybe McCarron (or even Romo, Hoyer, Barkley if you consider them “valid” options). Though no doubt that’ll probably throw off a lot of trends.

        I think you did a good job on focusing on the 5, but the guy that keeps kinda hovering in the background is Mahomes.

      • MB30SD

        Please include Dak data… You’re forgetting Dak!!

        • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

          I’m not looking at 2016 guys in this study because 1 year just isn’t enough time for evaluation (though Dak seems pretty obvious at this point). But I can check his stats.

          • MB30SD

            Might as well throw him into the mix

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      And I agree there are certain necessary physical minimums, it just seems that almost all the top prospects meet those, and then there’s not much distinction past that point.

      • Winifredcjones

        Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours & have longer with friends and family! !sc50c:
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  • A7Xthebest

    Conclusions: Jeff is a cuck.

    • Huge Bears Penis

      why?

      • MB30SD

        Engaged yet?

        • Huge Bears Penis

          fuck no!

          • MB30SD

            Good man

    • MB30SD

      You’re an idiot.

      But that’s already been established.

      • A7Xthebest

        Don’t know how I’ll recover from that. Damn man.

  • MB30SD

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-the-nfls-15-best-pass-rushers-in-the-2016-season/

    I admit I totally misjudged Joey boss. I talked smack and thought he’d bust.

    Dude is a monster and if he can stay healthy I think he’ll be #1 on this list next year.

  • MB30SD
    • Sauron’s right eyeball

      mmm….but wheres my onions and tomaaato?

      • MB30SD

        Fuck tomatoes dude. Disgusting things.

        Didn’t feel like onions. I know you saw the HP though

        • Sauron’s right eyeball

          Fresh tomatoes growing in the fields back in the day. None other like them.

          • leftcoastdave

            That gets a big AMEN.

        • Sauron’s right eyeball

          Is that vegimite?

          • MB30SD

            I actually don’t mind vegimite… Or Bovril… It’s fishpaste that disgusts me

          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Yuk, fishpaste. Only filthy disgusting food other than cod liver oil that my grans ever gave me.

          • MB30SD
          • Sauron’s right eyeball

            Haha…mmmmm

  • Irish Sweetness

    So it’s a trade for Kap (+ 19M a year) .. .Jimmy G … or y’know … trade down … collect top picks and have a go next year … grab your helmet Cutty.

  • Winifredcjones

    Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours & have longer with friends and family! !sc50c:
    On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it
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  • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

    So I just checked the results for the 3 guys who are currently entrenched as starters who were drafted outside the first 2 rounds between 11-15:

    Russell Wilson and Tyrod Taylor both meet 5/6
    Kirk Cousins meets 1/6

  • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

    For all 3rd-4th round QBs drafted in the same 11-15 window:
    5/6: Russell Wilson
    4/6: Bryce Petty
    3/6: Garrett Grayson
    2/6: Ryan Mallett
    1/6: Kirk Cousins, Landry Jones, Matt Barkley
    0/6: Mike Glennon, Nick Foles, Ryan Nassib, Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, Sean Mannion

    So Wilson stands out there. Nothing much suggesting future success was coming for Cousins.

    Generally not a lot of guys who hit many of the thresholds.

    • Huge Bears Penis

      great work. Thanks. still just shows that it will not guarantee success, but it is interesting to see that the late rounders that were successful like Taylor and Wilson were ranked high.

      • Susanrlooney

        Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours & have longer with friends and family! !dc78c:
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    • http://t.co/MsJnMxjrmd Forget-me-Naught!(Butch)

      Grayson has always interested me.
      Glennon is a bit scary now lol
      Cousins doesn’t surprise me. he is what he is. A “system” guy. Nothing really wrong with that but IMO if you get him, you need to get the system too (much like with Kap).

      Petty is a bit surprsing since I think he’s awful.

      Nassib is the other QB of interest for me, but I doubt he’s a real option for us.

      • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

        In the sample above, the line of demarcation seemed to be 5+ had a good chance of success and 4 or less didn’t.

        Again, tiny sample size issues.

  • Wobbly Pop

    And so why not take another more compareable look at FCS QB’s instead of comparing the FBS VS FCS QB’s ! This is like telling us here we have a lovely bowl of cherries that all look the same , but 1 we think may or may not have a pit !

    • http://www.dabearsbeat.com/ Johnathan Wood

      The sample size for FCS QBs who get drafted by the NFL is tiny. Would be very difficult to take an approach like this.

  • Captain Obvious

    Heard on some sports radio show as I was standing in line for coffee last week that Brady told friends before last year (2015) that he felt like he had “6 or 7” good years left. If that’s right, and you take off the two past seasons, that leaves Brady feeling (and telling people) that he has 4-5 good years left.

    And that would explain why there’s no pause in a 39 year-old multi-MVP, multi-ring QB coming back after his 5th SB win. He thinks he’s got more than one, more than a couple, more than 3 years left in his tank.

    Which might be why NE would part with Jimmy G, even if he could be the real deal — Brady won’t retire soon. So they trade Jimmy, get a good draft pick to groom for the next 3-4 years, then he takes over after Brady retires.

    So it might not be that they think Jimmy G isn’t the successor. He just came too soon (sort of like MB30SD, amirite? I kid, I kid).

  • Susanrlooney

    Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours & have longer with friends and family! !dc78c:
    On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it
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  • Leon Waffla

    “Before looking into this, I was firmly in the “no” camp on Garropolo, as I don’t think New England would trade a QB they thought was good when Tom Brady is approaching 40 years old. But this study has me re-considering that stance.” This doesn’t make any sense. Do you think your study is a better evaluation of JG’s talent than the thousands of training hours that Patriots coaching staff have had to evaluate him?They are selling him because a) he’s not their qb of the future and b) because dumb teams like the bears will give 3rd draft picks and more for an average QB. I think it’s time we have a list of all the journalists that are bleating to trade for this guy. If we do get Garropolo it’ll be an albatross round your neck every time he fumbles, throws interceptions and generally stinks the place out, whilst the Patriots win another Super Bowl thanks to the bears and the journalists that cover them. If we do trade for him you’ll lose every iota of credibility.

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