162 Comments

Money Where My Mouth Is: Three Picks For Week Eleven

| November 19th, 2015

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I’m back…BOOM…back in the New York groove!

I’m back…BOOM…back in the New York groove!

Took three dogs and all three dogs won outright. That’s what you call a good week of gambling, much needed after the disaster known as Week Ten. This season it’s becoming increasingly difficult to figure out who plays football well and who doesn’t. But one thing is certain: the Giants are winning the Super Bowl.

OAKLAND -1.5 AT DETROIT

Crossroads game for the Raiders. They are in the thick of a playoff race in the AFC but coming off two tough losses to two good teams in Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The Lions are putrid. On a Sunday where the Packers couldn’t do anything right the Lions still gave them every chance imaginable to walk away with a victory. Could be nuts but I think Raiders win big.

DALLAS PICK EM AT MIAMI

Romo returneth. If the Cowboys don’t win Sunday, their season is over. Simple as that. The fact that their season is not over at 2-7 is borderline insane but that’s life in the NFC East.

SAN FRANCISCO +12.5 AT SEATTLE

Okay, so I continue to watch the Seahawks play football every week. And every week I continue to be like, “eh, there ain’t much there”. So why are they laying 12.5 points against anyone, anywhere? The 12th man? They don’t have too much impact when the first eleven are mediocre. I’ll take the points.

Season Record: 16-12-2

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  • BillW

    First to say:
    Al, please no more late 60s Bear references. The memories are painful

    • AlbertInTucson

      Acknowledged.

      For now.

      • MB30SD

        you do you Al

      • BillW

        You made me remember Larry Rakestraw!!

        Which then for some reason made me remember Frank Cornish – the original Fridge.

    • Big Mike

      What Abe Gibron and Jim Dooley don’t bring you fond memories? Rudy Bukich, Bill Wade, Bobby Joe Green don’t illicit fond memories? 🙂

      • BillW

        His Larry Rakestraw reference in the last thread left me reeling.

        The three you mention, esp Bobby Joe, do bring up good memories. They were part of the first team I really paid attention to.

        I liked Abe – as over his head as he was. Dooley – meh (as they say.)

        Halas was loyal to his guys – to a fault to some extent but then again that’s what gave us Iron Mike.

  • Like the picks this week. Don’t think I’d bet SF though.
    I’m with you that SEA is overrated, but Blaine Gabbert, on the road… no thanks. I’m staying the hell away from that game.

  • Trac

    #1 Oakland just lost Smith for the year, bad bet.
    #2 Seattle will destroy the 49ers, bad bet.
    #3 Romo coming off injury against a team that found their mojo against the pack last week? Bad bet.

    Just sayin.

    • MB30SD

      lions didn’t find anything cept imploding fudge

      • Trac

        I’m insurging.

    • DaBearsBlog

      You clearly didn’t watch Lions Packers. No mojo was found. They kept missing extra points in a desperate attempt to lose.

      • Trac

        Remember theses words…I…told…you…so. Hee hee.

      • SC Dave

        Just like against us

    • AfroCelt

      1. I still like it. Oakland has some interesting things developing and the Lions are rudderless.
      2. 12.5 points is A LOT of points, especially in the NFL.Add in the fact that these are two running teams and the game gets shorter.
      3. (edited out)… And Detroit was atrocious that game. What they found was a gimme win, not leadership and team unity.

      It’s weeks like these that I’m glad I don’t bet much.

    • Big Mike

      Detroit found their mojo? Did you watch that game? The Packers haven’t played worse in 10 years and the Lions still barely escaped.

      • Trac

        Imo, Detroit is better than their record. I thinks it’s unwise to bet against them after their huge win last week. That’s just my opinion. Trust me, that was a huge win as far as Detroit is concerned but what do I know?

        • Big Mike

          Well, they beat the Packers and the Bears. Both were squeakers and in both, Detroit’s opponent played down to their level and made mistakes they normally don’t make. But you’re are right. Who knows?

  • Bear Down in Tampa

    It’s too bad the Bears-Donkeys line swung to Bears -1.5, Bears +3 would have been stealing for you, Jefe.

  • The GP

    Rapist Ben reminds me of Steve McNair. Just a big oaf that is tough and can stand in there and take a beating and deliver passes.

    Maybe one of Ben’s victims will shoot him, too, like McNair got shot.

  • The GP

    Here’s my VERY FAVORITE post of the day.

    This fucktard ETrade n00b Joe Campbell shorted a penny stock pharm for $35k. And an angel investor (actually one of Wall Street’s most hated investors), drops $165M into the deal and the stock SKYROCKETS, leaving Campbell high and dry on his margin call.

    So what does Joe Not Cool do?

    Starts begging online.

    https://www.gofundme.com/jwctrek

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh that’s fun.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVB-SSkkLnY

    • BillW

      At the risk of sounding like a grumpy old man (heaven forbid!) social networking just keeps finding new ways to annoy me. A guy makes a bad investment and is asking the public (strangers) to help bail him out.

      A couple we know very well has a daughter getting married next year. Naturally we will be at the wedding and intend to give an appropriately large monetary gift since our families are close. As well as a generous gift at the bridal shower.

      A couple weeks ago my wife gets a request (through Facebook I assume) with a link to a GoFundMe page for their “dream honeymoon”. Presumably in addition to the wedding gift, and shower gifts, it’s now a “thing” to crowdfund honeymoons??

      And then what? Vacations – things for the house and children – college – retirement supplements…

      Online begging – there’s an app for that!

      • CanadaBear

        Not sure why that bothers you Bill. All it does for me is solidify an opinion about someone. If they can find people dumb enough to give them money …

        • BillW

          Very true. A lot of people have “nerve” or “gall”; which in the positive spin can be considered “chutzpah”. In the case of my friends daughter though it’s insulting to be asked that in addition to what she knows or should know we intend to give them.

          It’s rude and I wonder what her parents think. We’ll see them this weekend – though we don’t intend to give or bring it up to them – I wonder if they are in anyway embarrassed or feel bad about it. I know I would.

          • CanadaBear

            I would bet the house the parents are embarrassed. The older I get the less trouble I have saying no and if people press me for an explanation, they will get the unvarnished truth.

          • The GP

            The truth plus splinters!

            https://imgflip.com/i/ue8t2

          • CanadaBear

            Being old and able to speak your mind is very liberating. Of course, paybacks can be hell!

          • DocNitty Ellipsoids Ornamental

            I didn’t bother waiting til I got old. I’ve always believed in getting down the Nitty Gritty in things, hence the moniker.

            I blame it on Soap Operas. When I was a young lad, my mom would watch Days of our Lives. Of course, being a young lad short on ball-hair, I became a fan (unwitting victim). And it used to drive me nuts that 99% of the problems on soaps are because somebody is holding a secret (usually in the interest of protecting someone), or not telling the whole truth. I vowed from a young age to just speak my mind and let the chips fall where they may. Others opinions of me be damned.

          • Cutty of Olivet Nazarene

            Days of our lives? My older sister made me watch it with her. Bo and Hope, the evil Stefano, Roman and Marlena, the whole John Black saga? Classic.

          • AlbertInTucson
          • AlbertInTucson

            “Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives.”

          • AlbertInTucson

            I resemble that remark!

          • AlbertInTucson

            Mr. Fishburne is BARELY recognizable from his days as “Larry” in Apocalyse Now.

          • BillW

            So I took a virtual breath and decided to read through the comments and donations given on the page. I try not to be judgmental and so I figured I’d educate myself rather than being critical.

            The guy has nearly 1500 so far. I guess he’s asking for 5000. The comments generally are “there but for the grace of God…” variety.

            The general comments are all over the place.. On the one side encouraging the guy to make up the money by taking their stock tips. Or to take even more gambles. And people criticizing him for not understanding the risks he took and now expecting others to bail him out.

            And yet is that any different (except for scale) to what happened in 2008?

            No conclusions – just a comment that social media is not evil. It’s just publicizes human nature that was always there.

          • The GP

            The asshole didn’t understand what a stop-loss order was.

            He was wading in waters he had no bidness being in.

          • BillW

            No doubt. I teach statistics in finance applied to (Very simple) stock analysis. Nothing about shorts, puts, calls etc. Just buy/sell. The primary emphasis is understanding risks, trying to quantify them, understanding the weakness in applying statistics to investing etc.

            I lead off with asking them to complete the following:
            High risk equals …

            Most very quickly say “high reward”.

            So I point out that investing therefore is very easy and we will get rich. All we have to do is find the riskiest investment since high risk EQUALS high reward.

            When they realize the fallacy of that they start paying attention. And I tell them to remember that high risk only means high potential reward and high potential loss.

            All my examples from that point on emphasize the potential loss side.

          • willbest

            Pretty sure all margin calls are on stop-loss as required by the broker who doesn’t want to be holding the bag. What probably happened though is the announcement caused such a swing in share price that by the time it triggered it was way too late.

    • Cutty of Olivet Nazarene

      this can’t be real. what the fuck is going on here? This fucking pussy has the audacity to engage in this type of trading and asks for a handout when things don’t go his way???? GP, please blow this fool up.

      • SC Dave

        This. A new low in personal responsibility

    • WP34

      I am sure that if this dude made the Bank, he would setup a website to share his new funds. NOT

      I hate this mentality – poor me.

  • The GP

    Speaking of being caught short – here’s some morning Joe for you:

    Jihadi Joe puts his rifle to woman’s head, gun jams. She runs.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1230096/Incredible-moment-woman-survives-Paris-gunman-tries-shoot.html

  • willbest

    Oakland -1.5 and the under (48). Lions aren’t going to score more than 20 points, so its just a question if the Raiders will clear 28, they have only done that once when they didn’t need to.

    Redskins + 7 @ Carolina. Carolina seems to find a way to let teams that aren’t awful back in the game. And the Redskins are not an awful team.

    • Captain Obvious

      Umm, the Redskins ARE awful. Last place in the NFC East, which is a shitshow.

      • The GP

        HI Cheesy. Is this your new handle now?

        • AlbertInTucson

          Anyone need further proof that “it” IS in fact, a troll….?

      • The Cowboys are in last in the NFC East. Washington is tied with the Eagles for 2nd, half a game behind Dallas.

        • Scharfinator

          BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM DATA’D

      • AlbertInTucson

        No, it’s the Saints defense thta’s “awful”.

    • Sactowns#1

      I like both of those. Not sure about the under in the Raiders game. They have given up a LOT Of garbage time points. I’m getting Washington at +7.5 so it’s even better.

  • The GP
    • BillW

      Great link. I recommend everyone reading it. Thanks GP.

      • BillW

        And get ready to change your avatar soon. 500 this Sunday!

    • Trac

      Wow!

    • AlbertInTucson

      Thanks!

  • Cutty of Olivet Nazarene

    DaBearsBlog @dabearsblog
    Wow. Without the best defense in football or a great power run game anymore, Wilson is average? Who knew?
    uhh….me….on the blog….railing against guys being called elite….like a maniac….to the point of exhaustion.

    • willbest

      Their o-line sucks this year. New Orleans looks like they got the better end of the Jimmy Graham trade. Brees is throwing the ball a billion yards a game. They just lose because Rob Ryan is bad.

      • Bender McLugh

        And Rob Ryan is gone. I don’t see him being a good coordinator elsewhere but you know some schlub team will still hire him.

        • Huge Bear’s Penis

          the other Ryan already stated it would be cool to coach with his brother.

          • Johnnywad

            Boy that sounds like a fucking circus

          • Bender McLugh

            Now that WOULD be interesting

          • Bender McLugh

            Two Ryan sons to equal Buddy. Sounds about right

    • Trac

      Yup, I’ve been saying for over a year that on any other team, Wilson is an average qb.

    • SC Dave

      I assume that is jefes sarcasm font.

  • The GP

    Fun with ISIS: ISIS tries to shoot down a 60s era Mig 21 with a machine gun. Captioning is fun fun.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctirIlbRpTw

  • AlbertInTucson

    Plenty to be concerned with Sunday.

    Their defense can score.

    Osweiler is mobile and Demaryus Thomas is a “Just throw in in his reach” type of beast.

    • The GP

      Fox faces his old team.

      Jay has never faced the Broncos save for a meaningless pre-season showing. Bowlen is dead, McDaniel is gone – but I’m sure Jay being Jay he still wants to stick it to them.

      • after this week he will have started games against all 32 NFL teams.

        • willbest

          That took him a while.

          • Tom Brady still hasn’t done it. 31 down, 1 to go.

          • willbest

            Who do he keep missing every 4 years?

          • BearDown100393

            The Patriots

          • willbest

            I missed that bit of logic.

          • Johnnywad

            You’re better than this Will…..

          • Trac

            Aaah…

          • AlbertInTucson

            Trick question.

            I like that.

      • I do like the strong revenge game factor in this one. For Fox, Gase, and Cutler.

        • SC Dave

          I don’t see it for jay. Too many seasons ago

    • Sactowns#1

      Luckily Demarcus Ware and Emanuel Sanders are both out.

      • AlbertInTucson

        “DeMarcus, Manny. Take the weekend off!”

        I don’t feel bad about that.

  • Johnnywad

    Brock Osweiler is 6′-8″. That’s a wonderful target for Amos. I’d send him early and often. I gotta think a thumper like Amos could fold a dude that tall in half with the appropriate angle.

    • Viva

      I love the way you think.

  • AlbertInTucson

    I see DNPs for McPhee and Royal again yesterday.

    • Trac

      Uh huh.

    • and today, along with Forte and Jeffery.

      Keep in mind, though, that they’re preparing for 2 games in 5 days, so probably playing it suuuuuuper safe in practice with banged-up guys.

      • AlbertInTucson

        We can hope.

        Be nice to see this team with all the pistons firing.

        • SC Dave

          No shit

      • BillW

        Plus they practiced indoors today (wind related maybe) and probably did not want them on the harder surface

  • AlbertInTucson

    “DaBearsBlog @dabearsblog
    Chicago media & fans would be KILLING Jay Cutler if suddenly he divulged an injury after his worst performances in years. Killing. Him.”

    So.So. True.

    National wags would savage him as well.

    • willbest

      I don’t know why anybody is surprised at this point that different rules apply to Aaron Rodgers than 28 other QBs in the league.

      • Trac

        Hmm.

    • SC Dave

      Pure speculation. Whiney too.

      And on top of all that, dont caaaaare!

      • CanadaBear

        I think it’s true but doesn’t need to be said. I agree it sounds like the poor, pitiful, me routine.

  • willbest

    Big Ben has the distinct problem of playing at a time when there are 3-4 HoF bound QBs playing. Though at least he can join that list with another SB ring. I don’t think even Eli would get in if he got his 3rd at this point.

    • Ben is a HOFer already, IMO. 40k pass yards, 2 SB rings.

      • The GP

        I guess they can place his bust in a men’s bathroom stall at Canton.

        • *women’s bathroom

        • Sactowns#1

          I’d gladly piss on it.

      • willbest

        I believe Big Ben’s fate as a HoFer won’t be dictated by his own record, but by those that come after him. If in 3 years after Manning/Brady and Brees are retired it is just him and Rodgers sitting on the top, then I think he will get in. But if Carr, Luck, and say Bortles have elevated their game to that level of play by then, he is going to miss out.

        • Sactowns#1

          Or if Jay leads the Bears to 4 SB’s in a row.

          • willbest

            Put the drink down, you have had enough and it is already thursday

    • Scharfinator

      He also has the problem of living in a time where rape is considered a problem.

      • willbest

        As the great philosopher Whoopi would ask, “is it rape rape?”

        or as Clinton would say “meh”. Then again the children at princeton are throwing a temper tantrum over Woodrow Wilson’s racism. So maybe in 100 years Clinton will get what is coming to him.

        • AlbertInTucson

          Wilson was, I believe, originally from Virginia and raised South Carolina.

          A product of his times.

          The concept of taking Old Woodrow out of the late 19th and early 20th centuries and judging him by 21st century conventions is ludicrous.

          If you’re going to take Wilson’s name off of everything, then start scratching the names of former KKK officers, Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd off of buildings, too.

          Might as well go after Lincoln, too. He freed the slaves but HIS master plan was to repatriate them to Africa.

          • willbest

            I am fond of saying “Most people can’t see past Friday nor before yesterday”

  • Trac
  • The GP

    Retraction: Turns out Pat Bowlen is not dead yet.

    • AlbertInTucson

      “Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

      • The GP

        He had Alzheimer’s and I remember hearing he was basically not functional anymore. I thought he died after that, but I guess not.

      • AlbertInTucson

        That’s one of my favorites from Mark Twain.

        Here IS my Favorite:

        “I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.”

        • EnderWiggin

          “I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.”

  • The GP

    Full Rousey fight

    https://vimeo.com/145841727

    • Cormonster

      They would fit right in on the old East German Olympic teams.

    • MB30SD

      Dude, she didn’t lose that fight, she got fucking destroyed. Wow.

      • AlbertInTucson

        I understand she came away with a broken nose and a split lip that will require plastic surgery.

        • Irish Sweetness

          She had the surgery. She got battered.

          People railed on her on the web for not trying to take Holm down. She was trying to take her down the whole fight, but was never allowed close enough for the Judo to be of any use.

          If Ronda has any mental resiliency and fires her coach, she should take a year out and learn to box properly.

  • Sactowns#1

    I’m digging the Chiefs and AZ this week. I also like the over in the Bears game and the Niners games as well as the under for tonight.

    • Irish Sweetness

      I was mulling a ARI -3 bet earlier, no they’re -5? That’s a lot. Did Cincy turn brutal overnight?

      • Sactowns#1

        I was on it but now I’m gonna stay away. Some weird things going on with that game and the line. I don’t like it.

  • The GP
    • MB30SD

      #1 is insane.

      Last is super exotic but need a face.

      • willbest

        not a fan of tats

        • MB30SD

          Soooooooooooooooooo a fan of tats. Yummy

          • willbest

            Probably some sort of disillusionment about women as the result of the divorce.

          • MB30SD

            Suuuuuure.

          • CanadaBear

            If the work is really good, it’s fun to look up close and personal. The women that I know that are pretty inked up aren’t shy about you looking at the canvas. Bless their hearts!

      • SC Dave

        I think people like.1 best because she looks like a real person. Probably “enhanced” but believably not so.

        My choice for that reason.

        • willbest

          #2 is probably real, or at least definitely could be. bustiers will lift and tuck like that on a lot of women. She just has a big jaw line. Would bet money #3 and 4 are fake. #5 could also be real, but sunglasses and wet hair hides too much. plus the tats.

          • Huge Bear’s Penis

            whats wrong with tats? sometimes they are very helpful. i had a one nighter with some chick that had her name tattooed on her shoulder. it help me avoid an awkward moment the next morning because i forgot her name.

          • SC Dave

            Lol. Ok, a positive reason for a tat

          • Irish Sweetness

            Tramp stamps.

    • willbest

      Going to take #1 as well. I do like me some long blonde locks, but those boobs aren’t sitting right.

    • SC Dave

      #4 is so photoshopped

    • Viva

      ONE

    • Scharfinator

      1 is obvious. 5 is runner up.

      I appreciate your research, GP.

    • Irish Sweetness

      MB loses his life on 4.

      For me : 5, then 1, hotel room, narcotics,

  • SC Dave

    Fuck it, we’re winning.

    And when we follow it with a beat down of the Fudge at Lambeau, I’ll jump on the Cutty for MVP bandwagon.

    The funny thing is, that for the first time ever, it seems plausible.

    Bear down.

    • MB30SD

      Atta boy!

  • AlbertInTucson

    If ISIS, as threatened, pulls the tail of the “Russian Bear”, former KGB Chief and current Premier, Vladimir Putin, will likely..

    A) Track the whereabouts of ISIS leaders and eliminate them with a surgical strike by a drone or Russian Special Forces.

    or

    B) Completely vaporize 20 to 30 square miles of SUSPECTED ISIS territory at a crack and not think twice about things like innocent victims or collateral damage.

    • Johnnywad

      I believe they’ve pissed off China as well. I suspect the Chinese, once reverting to form, will be a handful as well.

    • willbest

      I vote for B. I know the middle east isn’t all that much like Japan, but it worked there, and it hasn’t been tried in the region yet.

  • Irish Sweetness

    Jags about to go for it on 4th, and the Titans call a timeout. Currently a push bet. Then the kicker walks out …. sweet.

    • Irish Sweetness

      PAYMENT.

  • Irish Sweetness

    (28-14-0)

    IND +5.5 (@ATL) : The Falcons are starting to suck. Hasselbeck is not Luck. A good thing.

    TB +5.5 (@PHI): Mark Sanchez.

    SF +12.5: Seattle beating anyone not named the Chicago Bears by 12 points is tough to do with no OL.

    CHI to beat DEN: Maybe its better we don’t get the Peyton that ripped the Packers apart. The again, it’s becoming evident that it’s not difficult to rip the Packers apart.

    Under consideration:

    If the Kitties can beat GB, so can Minny at home. A-Rod has a sore shoulder and they have the curse of Ditka upon them.

    7.5 points is a lot for the Pats to give Buffalo. No Edelman, no Lewis.

    Cincy are now getting a 5 point start against the Cards.

  • Shady

    So who do we want to lose more this Sunday, the Cheese or the Queens?

    • Irish Sweetness

      Queens, they’ll be our competition if Rodgers falls apart, or just generally. But I’d back the Vikings.

      • Shady

        I know they have a solid defense with a geat running back, but I just don’t trust Minny yet.

        • willbest

          It would take a lot for them to miss the playoffs at this point.

          • Irish Sweetness

            It would take … us!

      • willbest

        We aren’t catching the Vikings, we would in all likelihood need to win 4 more games than they do over the next 7 (though I won’t rule out some crazy combinations of wins/losses that result in us gaining a tiebreaker on them if we were both 10-6).

    • willbest

      By far and away the easiest path for the Bears to the playoffs is for the Vikings to sweep the Packers.

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