210 Comments

Thanksgiving in Detroit Presents Bears with Opportunity for a Season (Or Why Losing for “Better” Draft Picks is Ridiculous)

| November 25th, 2014

xxx

Here is something I don’t want to hear. Or read. Or listen to. Or find in my fortune cookie.

Bears should lose games for a better draft pick.

Research project for those espousing this ideology.

Prove that the number 8 selection in the NFL Draft has more success historically than the number 18 selection. Prove that number 5 selection has more success historically than the number 25 selection. Unless you are in the market for generational talents, specifically at the quarterback and pass rush positions, draft position has little to do with an organization’s success in the draft. You know what does matter? Talent evaluation.

Do you think Chance Warmack and DJ Fluker and Jonathan Cooper would still be taken before Kyle Long? Do you think Trent Richardson would be taken before Doug Martin? Do you think Matt Kalil would go a round earlier than Cordy Glenn? Would Dee Milliner or Morris Claiborne get drafted? Go look at the horror show that is the top of 2013 draft. Go look at the 13-17th selections in the 2014 draft.

And isn’t it odd how certain franchises retain their positions at the top of the sport? New England, Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans…etc. continue to be in contention for postseason berths every year while none of them ever select in the top ten come April. How is that possible? Oh, that’s right. They choose the right players when they are on the clock.

I know why fans act the way they do. Fans invest emotionally in a team they believe can make the postseason or win a championship. That emotional investment means feeling pain should the team lose. Nobody wants to feel pain. Pain kinda stinks. Once a fan can check out, or at least say they’ve checked out, they can divest emotionally from the occurrences over the three hours of their favorite team’s game. “Lose for draft picks” is another way of saying “if I expect or hell, even WANT, my team to lose I will not feel sad about them losing”. These fans are what doctors commonly refer to as full of shit.

Though some don’t want to hear it, the best case scenario for the Chicago Bears is this coach being the right coach, this general manager being the right general manager and this quarterback being the right quarterback. The way that manifests itself is through victories.

A win Thursday in Detroit gives the Bears meaningful football games in December. A win Thursday means the Bears need only 3-1 down the stretch to sport a winning record and show improvement in the standings from a year ago. A win Thursday means mathematical elimination from the postseason, which a month ago seemed likely before Thanksgiving, may have to wait until Christmas.

These are huge stakes for a Bears season left for dead on the flight home from Wisconsin. A win accelerates expectations for the final month. Who won’t be excited for a 6-6 Bears team hosting the Cowboys in primetime next week? A loss means the Bears will require an improbable table run to finishing the season with more wins than losses and motivation inside the locker room will be a far more elusive commodity.

For many, this season was defined by the embarrassment of back-to-back road blowouts against the league’s two best teams. Thursday is an opportunity to give 2014 new definition and rebuild excitement at Soldier Field. If the Bears win they begin their playoffs a week later, at home, against the Cowboys. Every win comes with life, with hope. Every loss brings the 2015 offseason much closer.

Tagged: , , , ,

  • Viva

    You must admit there are times when having the first pick in the draft is advantageous to an organization. It depends on the year. Tanking for a draft pick is poison…which is why the league should never ever ever reward failure. Instead, the 1st pick (round) of the draft should be rotated every years for 32 years (total number of teams)…

    Scouts would start showing up to 3 year olds playing flag football…

    • NewBearInTown

      There was actually an interesting rotation suggested in for the NBA (where the top 6 picks truly are consistently more valuable than lower first rounders).
      http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tanking-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel/
      The most interesting part is that every team has a top 6 draft pick every 5 years (in a 30 team league). That makes the draft really different.

    • DaBearsBlog

      First pick is an ENTIRELY different concept. If you have the first pick you have remarkable leverage to add a zillion more picks.

    • BillW

      It’s not rewarding failure. It’s trying to keep the league balanced. Same with salary cap and free agency.

      There are 32 teams in the league. The only way to keep interest in all those teams is to present each of them an equal opportunity to build a winning roster.

      It’s a “dirty little secret” but do you realize there is a very tiny chance of every team winning the SB in any one person’s lifetime? The league knows this.

      Think of a die – how many rolls until you get all 6 numbers? Likely a lot more than 6.

      Think if the SB winner was random. It would likely take a lot more than 32 years for all teams to win. I simulated this once – don’t recall but I think there was a 30% or better chance it would take over 100 years.

      But the league sells hope. Every team has an equal chance to turn things around in a few years. Just like we all have an equal chance to win the lottery.

  • Big Mike

    Jeff, I’ve followed your blog for a few years now. I’ve followed you on twitter for about a year. In my opinion, this is the most spot on you have ever been. “the best case scenario for the Chicago Bears is this coach being the
    right coach, this general manager being the right general manager and
    this quarterback being the right quarterback”. Thanks for the pick me up. Had a great, great time at the game. Met Brittany Payton at the tailgate party before the game 🙂

    • BillW

      Hey Mike – meant to ask you about your trip. glad you went? Tailgate? Restaurants – bars? Get lucky? (Sorry – I’m channeling other blog members there).

      • Big Mike

        The trip was great. Good flight, Great rooms at the Palmer House. Went out with some buddys to a place called the Twisted Kilt. It’s like an R rated version of Hooters. Quite a few craft brews, Hawks blew out Edmonton that night. Started our tailgate at about 8:30. Spent the first quarter encouraging the offense, getting amped up on defense only to be let down repeatedly. Tampa had over 200 yards in the first half and converted some long ass 3rd downs. DIdn’t boo the offense coming off to the field after the first 5 three and outs. By about the 8th one joined the boo birds, because it was historically bad. F’n wide receivers going offsides is pee-wee football. Cutler was throwing the ball, high, low, behind and when he did throw it well, guys dropped it. Coming off the field at half they were booed without mercy. 2nd half, defense just played spectacular and the offense didn’t suck. So we were all in a happy mood, and had a few more cocktails. The win felt great. Talilgated for a couple hours after, then went to a pub called Reggies. Neighborhood bar around 2100 S. State street. Cabbed it home at about 4am, caught flight back home at noon Monday.

        • BillW

          Tilted Kilt. I’ve never been but it seems “interesting”.

          Glad you had a good time!

  • NewBearInTown

    I tend to agree with Jeff that tanking for picks is a poor plan in the NFL. But I think there is quite a bit of data to suggest #5 is better than #25 historically. #8 is also statistically better than #18 if I recall, though those numbers are less compelling. What is true is that #5 is not better than #8 consistently. #15 is not better than #20 consistently. Those kinds of small differences do not improve a team’s chance of success.
    And tanking for picks will usually create a much smaller swing in draft position – maybe 1-2 games, which usually equals less than ten draft spots. The only time those spots make a huge difference? When you’re talking about the top 5 picks. So its only the best teams in the league and the worst teams in the league have good reason to rest the starters in Weeks 16-17.

  • GPLDAN

    The rock simple argument against tanking is that if everybody did it, every losing team, it would ruin the sport. Simple as that.

    • Peanut FTW

      And the fact that losing football is a habit. Look at the lions recent history. Stockpile 4 years of top 5 draft picks, hit on great players with those picks, and still have a rough time getting out of the rut.

    • NewBearInTown

      That’s an argument for the league to prevent tanking, not an argument for a given team to avoid it. Its the same thing logic that requires a salary cap, a rookie minimum, a max roster, etc. If one team does it, they get an advantage. If everybody does it, nobody benefits and the quality of the league decreases.
      Stuff like this is a true prisoner’s dilemma for certain teams – if tanking did become a problem (as in the NBA), then the league would have to work around it.

      • GPLDAN

        They would institute a draft lottery.

        • NewBearInTown

          Draft lottery helped a bit, but tanking is still an issue in the NBA. I posted below – the concept of the draft wheel is very intriguing to me.

        • Should have done it when the Colts were obviously “sucking for luck”.

          I think they should institute one, with the “losers” having a higher chance at the top picks, but no guarantees. Might make the “suck for Luck” campaign less…sucky.

          But then come the Irish Fed conspiracy theories that they’re rigged.

          Could you imagine if the year Luck was the #1 the Pats somehow got the #1 overall pick?

          Holy shit, the conspiracy theorist would have blown a gasket. Spygate would be a footnote compared to that shitstorm.

  • Ososfan

    Loved this article. I’m still believe we need some very good talent coming in this year’s draft but would never want the team to lose for a better draft position. Emery has shown he can evaluate talent and with the more time he and his staff are given, the better off we will be in that aspect. I enjoy the winning but still look at the squad as missing something.

  • Peanut FTW

    NFL has a story about the Bills game:

    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014112301/2014/REG12/jets@bills#tab=recap&menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000434074&recap=fullstory

    There is a section about a player I think MB would like a lot…
    “Buffalo broke the game open in the third with 17 points. Boobie Dixon blocked a punt and Manny Lawson recovered it in the end zone, and Fred Jackson added a 5-yard touchdown run.”

  • Barb UMihai Mar

    Newsflash: The Bears should be on a lookout for a generational talent at quarterback. That’s the point.
    Who wants to ‘tank’ for a Guard ?

    • DaBearsBlog

      You don’t “look” for generational talents at QB.

      • Barb UMihai Mar

        you said: “Unless you are in the market for generational talents, specifically at the quarterback and pass rush positions, draft position has little to do with an organization’s success in the draft.”The Bears are/should be in that position.

        • BillW

          Technically, he didn’t say you look for them – but if you are in the market AND one happens to be there, then…

  • GPLDAN

    Who is the best Rookie WR in the league right now?

    Beckham? Watkins? Our pal on the Bucs?

    • Peanut FTW

      I would say Mike Evans right now but Kelvin Benjamin is close.

      • DaBearsBlog

        What Mike Evans is doing with those shit quarterbacks is kind of extraordinary. Sammy Watkins has remarkable ability but his speed is being rendered useless by Orton. Benjamin is a product of being the only professional wide receiver on their roster.

        Beckham is a special talent. I never saw in college what he’s done as a pro in only a few games.

        • Peanut FTW

          Benjamin is the only WR there but he does have to contend with the whole my QBs favorite target is the TE thing.

          • DaBearsBlog

            That he does. And there is something seriously wrong with Cam Newton this year, which he refuses to disclose.

          • Bender McLugh

            I’d have to put Brandon Cooks in there, he runs great routes and has fantastic hands. Beckham might be the best of the bunch though.

          • Seems like it, doesn’t it?
            I also have the sneaking suspicion that Rivers is also hiding an inj.

    • I might be biased (I picked up ODB in FF cuz I saw his tape, and he finally healed up), but I give the slight edge to him.

      But to me, it’s close.

      ODB is like Antonio Brown.
      Evans is like B-Marsh/Damaryius Thomas

      Different molds, but both equally effective in their ways.

      Did you see that Dallas-v-Gmen game.
      ODB was literally uncoverable. He burnt both the safety and corner. His stop-go/change of direction/route-running/feel/hands are so advanced, it’s uncanny.

      This year has been called the ‘1984 of WRs’ and I might begin believing it.

      Watkins has been a bit injured, but he was supposed to have the year that ODB IS having.

      Benjamin (who I also liked in the draft) is good, but his hands can be bricks too. He drops a lot of passes, runs somewhat sloppy routes (which hurt Cam’s stats).

      Again, Evans is having the year Benjamin SHOULD be having.

      I thought all these rookies would be really excellent. What I didn’t forsee was how FAST they would progress.

      They might change the paradigm of “It takes 3 years for WRs to truly develop”.
      This still might hold true, but this rookie class has proven that they can still be productive in the meanwhile, which wasn’t really the case before (with few exceptions like Moss).

  • Bears-4-Ever

    Tanking is lame and I agree that regardless you play to win. Sure Draft Picks are nice to have early but no matter how you slice them they are no different than rolling the dice. You never really know how well they are going to acclimate to the NFL and you don’t know if they can stay healthy long enough to really make a difference. Look at the Rams Sam Bradford, never really got rolling since he had no good targets & an O-line that couldn’t keep him safe for more than a second or two in the pocket. Then gets hurt a few times that ultimately made him a bust. RGIII also a short timer because of injury…you just cannot predict stuff like that.

  • GPLDAN

    Speaking of first pick leverage, whatever happened to Clowney?

  • PSDBears

    You are right: The best case scenario is that Emery, Trestman and Cutler are the right people for the organization. Isn’t that a pretty obvious statement though? Every Bears fan hopes that. It’s hard to ignore the current state of the Bears to instill that confidence in a fan base that’s expecting more out of one of the most talented rosters we’ve seen in a long time. This team has not proven it can currently compete with anyone outside of other dysfunctional teams.

    This offense, coming off of a very successful ’13 campaign, has completely sputtered. For whatever reason, the strength of this team doesn’t have the ability to keep the Bears competitive. Whether that be on Marc’s inability to game plan and adjust to opponents or Cutler’s inability as a QB within his system, this is the situation they’re in. We’ve upgraded the D roster but I’m still waiting to see Tucker’s stamp on a defense Marc/Phil trusted to be seen this season. I have to believe another DC could get more out of these men. Whether it be because of Phil’s constant churning of the bottom of the roster or Joe D’s methods, STs are highly penalized and ineffective. Coming off of a 7-9 season and already a long shot to make the playoffs in ’14, it’s hard to feel confident for the future with this staff.

    I’ve always liked Phil Emery but it’s very fair to question him as well. Outside of Alshon, the 2012 draft was a failure. The only pick on the roster from that draft besides Alshon is Shea and he won’t be around in ’15 more than likely. The 2013 draft, outside of Long, is still a very big question mark. I do, although, like what we’ve seen from the 2014 draft. He did a good job building this offense in ’12 and ’13 and this year he signed Jay, Slauson, Gould (end of ’13), Jennings, Garza, Peanut, DJ, and Hayden. Unfortunately, they have all had either injury or poor production in ’14. Jennings has displayed opposition to the team vocally and on social media coming off a 4-year deal which is especially concerning. Good singings with Willie, Ratliff and Mundy; poor, high priced decisions with Houston and Allen. A very extensive coaching search brought us Trestman over Arians and if he doesn’t prove to be the coach he needs to be, I’m not sure Phil has done enough to warrant him the ability to choose another.

    This isn’t about draft picks; it’s about the men in charge of the future of this team. Draft picks are just the icing on the cake for a team that needs depth at almost every position. We can debate the validity of your argument about draft position being meaningless, and I disagree, but I think it misses the bigger point. This Bears team looks to be a few pieces away on paper from competing but they should also be much more competitive this season without question. Teams like New England, Green Bay and Baltimore continue to compete because they have a strong front office, head coach, QB and they build through the draft. Maybe this is the HC, QB and GM that gets them closer to those teams but if it is, they sure aren’t showing it the way they need to.

    Whomever the Bears might hire in place of this staff may not end up being the saviors the Bears need but if the wrong men are in charge of this team right now, I’d hate for a few wins in a 6-10, 7-9 or 8-8 season to make excuses for the failures of the last two seasons. If the Bears put together a winning record by season’s end and we’re seeing the production out of this offense like we should against better opponents then Marc deserves a chance to right the ship in 2015. But if he doesn’t, I don’t think he should be given that chance. Maybe Phil doesn’t deserve it either.

  • BillW

    I rarely hear anyone say the Bears should tank for draft picks. What I do hear is fans saying they don’t care if they lose (or maybe even hope they do lose) so that a coaching change is made. We can debate the sense of that too, but I think that feeling is far more prevalent.

    Jeff – God bless you for this blog. I could never give this up. The time and thought you put into this is admired and appreciated. Sincerely. So it pains me a bit to say this – but I mean it with respect.

    You most often are a very thoughtful analyst and writer. Your optimism and love for the team is obvious and drives everything. But there are times when in my opinion you miss the mark and don’t step back to see where perhaps that has happened.

    This “tanking for draft picks” is one. I talk to a lot of people and as I said the sentiment is “I almost want them lose so maybe they will see Trestman is not a good coach”. (And in my opinion he isn’t. Two wins against bad teams didn’t change my mind. And I believe you feel the same.) I literally NEVER hear anyone say “I hope they lose so we get a better draft pick.”

    Another is no-shows. You continued to say that staying home is pointless because low concession sales won’t make a difference. But again that’s not at all the point. It’s the embarrassment of having empty seats or rival fans. (And look out for the Dallas game. There was a large contingent of Dallas fans at NY; I expect the same in Chicago.)

    You said the best scenario is that the coach is right and the GM is right and the QB is right. Very true. But we already have strong evidence that the coach isn’t. And the GM is questionable too. Winning against Mn and TB didn’t show a better Trestman (in fact, it exposed the team yet again for being unprepared).

    I let it go last thread but you said something like “NOW the results matter”. I hope you realize that Buffalo and Carolina (and Atlanta and SF) mattered too. Don’t just look at the trees – look at the whole forest. Big picture – do they have the right coaching staff? At halftime Sunday you were ready to say Trestman should be fired. The second half did not delete the first half. And besides that – it was TUCKER’s side of the ball that performed up to or beyond expectations..

    But I do see you WANT these games to matter. Some fans though realize that a few (expected) victories at the end of the season simply gives management a reason to give Trestman another chance to fail.

    I hope I didn’t come across disrespectful. I could never do what you do with this blog – and I truly appreciate having a place to come to discuss my (obsessively) favorite team!

    Bear down!

    (Maybe this will get MB back to the board?)

    • PSDBears

      Well said, Bill.

    • GPLDAN

      Bill –

      We don’t criticize the Blogfather here. It breaks the Omerta we have. So shape up or Sister Mary Joseph will be slapping you around.

      • BillW

        I’ll take my penance.

    • DaBearsBlog

      Go on Twitter or check my email. I’d say I get 100+ messages a week stating Bears should lose to get higher draft pick.

      What’s your evidence the coach isn’t? He has been a head coach for a total of not yet two seasons and is 1 game under .500.

      There were 10,000 Dallas fans at the game last year and the Bears were playing well. People think the attendance thing is a big deal. I can tell you what an owner, a man who owns a team, told me. It’s not.

      I never said Trestman should be fired at halftime. Quite the opposite actually. I said he was coaching for his life in that locker room. And they responded. So that example isn’t working for you. And you read this site enough to know I don’t separate coordinators. I put it all on the head coach.

      And once again, you’ve missed my entire point of the last two games. There was nothing impressive about either win. But they enable games to have meaning.

      • BillW

        Twitter is garbage – again, my opinion. I don’t doubt you. The only place I “hear” that is comment boards. And I would guess age/maturity is a factor there. The people I (literally) talk to don’t say that. I’m over 60 years old though.

        The McCaskeys were embarrassed when GB fans took over Soldier Field years ago and Reggie did his retirement victory lap there. It happens.

        C’mon Jeff. I don’t want to do this…

        “Going into halftime I was fully prepared to write a “Marc Trestman Must Be Relieved of His Duties Today” column.”

        “Performance Coming Out of the Bye Proves Bears Have Wrong Head Coach”

        • GPLDAN

          Uh oh, we’re going full Eeyore here. I was hoping for some Wabbit or maybe some rational Christopher Robin, but alas…

          • BillW

            Whoah!- I’m simply saying that JEFF expressed opinions about Tresty that he now seems to be forgetting or ignoring.

          • BillW

            I said in a prior comment that MAYBE Trestman found his voice. (Didn’t quite say it that way but it’s what I was talking about.) We’ll see if he really is a changed man.

          • BillW

            The second half performance didn’t make me think Trestman is now the right coach for the Bears. I respectfully think that’s a fair opinion – not “Eeyore-ish”.

          • DaBearsBlog

            What animosity, it’s debate. And I still don’t understand where you’re getting the “Trestman is now right coach for Bears” nonsense. Because it’s not in my content. My point, AGAIN, was the last two wins give Trestman the opportunity to prove he’s the right coach.

          • BillW

            Jeff – stop. YOU wrote this:
            “Performance Coming Out of the Bye Proves Bears Have Wrong Head Coach”

            “PROVES”. Not “indicates”. Not “suggests”. Not “hints”. “PROVES”. In math – proving means, well- proving. I can’t read that any other way.

          • BillW

            Now if you want to come back and say you were wrong or hasty or whatever, that’s different.

          • DaBearsBlog

            I’m not saying I was wrong or hasty or anything. Do you not understand the difference between my personal belief and whether a coach will be fired or not? Do you not understand that I don’t get to fire Marc Trestman? Do you not understand that Marc Trestman has an opportunity to keep his job as head coach – despite my belief he’s the wrong man for the job?

          • BillW

            Again, I’m getting everyone pissed off at me. Better to stop.

          • DaBearsBlog

            Dude, this is a sports debate. Nobody is pissed off. But you are misreading what I’ve written several times.

          • GPLDAN

            That’s right Bill. You don’t like stirring shit up, you don’t like making it about you.

            You’re just a poor, misunderstood 60 year old man trying to express his love for the Bears. Got it.

          • BillW

            C;mon. I don’t see anyone else on this blog sit back and be called out without response. I’m not MAD at Jeff – I’m not calling him vulgar names like happens too often here. I’m simply saying making the point that he’s seems to be inconsistent. and I’m trying to do it respectfully but also logically.

          • Peanut FTW

            For arguments sake:
            That statement by Jeff in no way indicates that he should be immediately fired. Just that he is the wrong coach. And Jeff writing about a map for Trestman to save his job in no way says he is the right coach, just able to save his job.

          • BillW

            That is correct, and maybe I read something in today’s conversations that was plain wrong on my part.

          • DaBearsBlog

            Not ignoring or forgetting. I have never argued ONCE Marc Trestman should be retained as head coach after this year. Not a single time have I ever written that. But because I refuse to scream FIRE HIM FIRE HIM it is perceived that way.

          • BillW

            The very LAST thing I ever want to do on this blog is to show any animosity to you Jeff. Perceived or otherwise. So it’s best to end it here.

          • PSDBears

            You must enjoy playing devil’s advocate regardless if you agree or not. It’s the only way I can understand the way you communicate.

          • DaBearsBlog

            I’m sorry, is it you that presents their opinions every single day, spending hours to craft them? Oh no wait, that’s me.

          • PSDBears

            Your inflated ego & arrogance make it fun to debate with you. Thus why I’m always around on Twitter. You must be doing something right. Kudos!

          • DaBearsBlog

            I built a site single-handedly for a decade and spent 6 years doing it for nothing. If you want ego, you might want to look elsewhere.

          • PSDBears

            You did just rally off your accomplishment. Just saying.

          • DaBearsBlog

            If that’s ego then I am an ego maniac.

          • BillW

            And deservedly so.

          • GPLDAN

            Oh shut up.

          • BillW

            Maybe that was internet sarcasm. I hope so. It comes off though like you think I’m being two faced. I think the proper response to you is FYVM.

            I DO respect Jeff a great deal. It’s amazing what he does here. Why can’t I respect him and also have a disagreement?

          • GPLDAN

            It wasn’t internet sarcasm.

          • BillW

            Noted

          • PSDBears

            How much do you charge to be an internet bodyguard?

          • beninnorcal

            How much do you charge to come pee in everyone’s Cheerios?
            Piss off, Twatter troll.

          • PSDBears

            I didn’t provoke you to prove to me what you’ve accomplished so that why I said that. You’ve done good work, not denying that. I just like debating with you for certain reasons more than others.

        • PSDBears

          I saw that too, Bill. When you delete a tweet, it doesn’t mean it was never sent, Jeff. I guess a slew of penalties & turnovers by the Bucs made Trestman a competent HC and erased all of the past poor showings in one fell swoop. Pretty impressive, I must say.

    • Peanut FTW

      I don’t usually hear for the draft pick reason, but there are a ton of fans that seem to be like Rosendouche. It seems like they would rather lose so they would have a reason to complain about not having the chin as a coach or be able to say they were right about Emery when they hired him or (most popular) that they have never liked Jay. So I think this article is spot on, Jay isn’t my favorite QB of all time, but while he is wearing a Bears jersey; I want him to succeed.

      • BillW

        Yeah – I thought of adding the Rosenbum point but it got too long. I don’t want them to lose – and most of the people I talk to that I referenced qualify it (as I said) by saying they don’t care if they lose.

        But try not to equate a caring fan (like me) with him. Even if some of it sounds the same. There is a legitimate opinion expressed by many that Trestman will fail and possibly Emery too. Yet every one of the people I talk to who express that WANT to be wrong.

        I want the Bears to win. I want Jay to succeed. I want Emery and Trestman to also.

        But wanting that doesn’t change a damn thing.

    • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

      I hear it on this very blog, nearly every year.

  • CanadaBear

    I don’t think we have the right GM, HC or QB and I still think tanking is stupid. Unless you have a great GM, what’s the point?

  • BillW

    A little perspective – next year marks the 30th anniversary of the Bears SB victory. Depending on this years outcome, there will be only 14 or 15 out of 32 teams that have won a SuperBowl since the Bears did.

    Meaning the Bears are one of 17 or 18 teams failing to win a SuperBowl in the last 30 years. The majority.

    Winning even ONE SuperBowl is difficult. To do it multiple times in even a 30 year stretch is in fact amazing.

    Not only is it difficult – it’s IMPOSSIBLE for every team to do that. Yet they all want to.

    We never think about teams like Carolina or Jax or NYJ or Arizona (well, maybe this year) that have never won or won before most fans were born. We sit back and think “but we’re special. We’re the Bears.

    No we’re not. We’re just one of 32 teams. And most of them will go over 40 – 50 years between championships – and several won’t even get one by Super Bowl C

    • We are special, and the fact that the Pats have become a “dynasty” and we have become the Old Pats is not lost on me.
      If you would have told me as a little kid in 85 right after we blew them out that 30 years later they would become a dynasty and that the Bears would not win another SB and essentially become the Old Pats, I would punched you in the nuts.

  • TheBigCheesy

    Realllllly thinking about rooting for the Bears on Thursday…

    Naaaaaaaah

    • BillW

      I’d be disappointed in you if you did. You don’t need us.

      I know how you feel (though it’s been a long time since the shoe was on the other foot.)

    • BillW

      The best part for you is you are satisfied with either outcome. Happy Thanksgiving Cheesy!

  • GPLDAN
  • Bender McLugh

    this season has been such a complete bummer due to my own expectations, and I had been on the tank-for-a-draft-spot bandwagon.

    Thanks for talking me down Blogfadder.

  • AlbertInTucson

    “Tank?” Um, no, tank you.

  • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

    • Peanut FTW

      I’m not sure I understand… why do you play?

      • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

    • If Trestman showed half that passion, I might want him to win and stick around.
      He doesn’t.

  • BillW

    I must be dyslexic (I AM left handed). Or very poor reading skills. Of maybe just plain stupid.

    Jeff wrote to me:
    And I still don’t understand where you’re getting the “Trestman is now right coach for Bears” nonsense. Because it’s not in my content. My point, AGAIN, was the last two wins give Trestman the opportunity to prove he’s the right coach.

    And thought he wrote “…NOT right coach for the Bears,,,”.

    And so I quoted past articles and he probably thought “you poor old man… what are you saying”. And others probably thought worse.

    I am REALLY sorry that I did not read that carefully enough. I extended the debate when in fact Jeff’s comment should have ended it.

    I get it. You are simply saying it’s more fun having the games mean something (since, well, they’re gonna be played anyway) and let’s see what happens. Trestman CAN save his job – and I think I even said if they go 10-6 he should be in COY discussions.

    Again – Jeff – I owe you an apology and this is it.

    • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

      It’s the constant bickering that surrounds your posts that has driven away some of the regs that I miss very much. Just sayin’.

  • BillW

    And to GPLDAN – FYVM one more time.

    • GPLDAN

      Back at ya, ya prick.

  • beninnorcal

    Just made a shocking realization. BillW= #16?
    After all these years?

    • CanadaBear

      For the first time in my life, LOL!

      • BillW

        Enlighten me as to #16. I sort of remember a conversation about him/her earlier this year. I swear I’m me and only me.

        • CanadaBear

          Don’t worry Bill it’s all in fun. There was a guy named #1 Bears Fan that used to post a lot and we teased the hell out of him. At some point someone said he was the 16th best Bears fan and he became #16. We teased him so much he got mad and quit. Not sure how long ago that was.

          • BillW

            I miss all the fun!

          • GPLDAN

            2008-ish.

          • BillW

            That explains it. We were still doing OK then. No need for Eeyore then!
            (Making fun of myself – I’m sure I was on the blog then too – as I was during the Lovie Smith glory year.)

    • BillW

      Who is that? I’ve been on the blog since 2006 and do not remember.

      • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

        You post a helluva lot more now than you did then. In fact, it seems the more you bicker with whomever, the more you post. You went from quitting the blog several times to becoming the dominant poster on this board.

    • GPLDAN

      Hehehehehehe. Nice.

  • BillW

    Well – I think that’s enough excitement for the week, I have a lot of work piling up and grading to do with the quarter ending today.

    I hope all of you have a Happy Thanksgiving.

    No hard feelings GPLDAN or anyone. The “p*ssy in me makes me need to say that.

    I often feel being on this board is like playing a game I’m no good at in a league I don’t belong in.

    Sort of like Shae.

    • CanadaBear

      Bill don’t take is so personally. We’re guys, we fuck with each other. Almost all of us have been pissed enough to take a day or two off from the blog. The trick is to let shit go. It means nothing so why carry it around. That’s my only piece of advice for being part of the blog. Let shit go and don’t keep re-visiting the scene of the crime.

      • It’s been said before Canada, NUMEROUS times.

        • CanadaBear

          I’m trying. I like Bill and he does know Bears football.

          • BillW

            It’s my age. I’ll come right out and say it. I have a problem with it personally because I read things as if they are being said to me with sincerity.

            I can’t read “you’re a prick” without thinking the person saying it thinks I’m a prick. And then I feel defensive. And act like a prick.

            That’s why I said I’m playing a game I’m not good at in a league I don’t belong in. I’m trying. I appreciate your patience and advice. Thanks.

          • CanadaBear

            Don’t worry about it Bill. You don’t have to get everything. I’m 62. I don’t get stuff on here all the time. About half of the pop culture references and almost all of the references to action movies are lost on me.

          • BillW

            Same age. We remember Halas as a coach, not initials on a jersey. MAkes a difference in some ways I think.

          • CanadaBear

            Mostly it just makes us old with more memories of crappy teams. At least we can say we saw the Bears win in ’63.

          • BillW

            I think about that sometimes. I actually saw the man most instrumental in the founding and success of the NFL coach. Live – several times.

            Also met him, shook his hand, and got his autograph on his autobiography.

            So I get too defensive when I feel my fan credentials are being challenged.

          • CanadaBear

            Just let it go. Nobody on here is any better than anyone else. Some may know more football, some may know more about Bears football but we all have a place here. I go out of my way to be civil to people on here. We all have bad days and get annoyed. It happens. If someone is always a jerk I just skip their posts. No need to go out of your way to get agitated.

          • BillW

            Sound advice. Thanks

          • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

            You get defensive ALWAYS.

          • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

            To be fair, I think GP means it.

      • Sactowns#1

        I have never taken a day or two off because of some silly internet fight. I’ve got thick skin, espescially since I got that graft from Joan Rivers plastic surgeon.

        • CanadaBear

          Did you ever see the roast of Joan Rivers? Up here on the Canadian version of Comedy Central, the roasts are uncensored late at night. The one for Joan Rivers was super funny. Greg Geraldo was first and the first thing he says is “What the fuck happened to your face? You look like a buck-toothed dolphin.” And it went from there. Gilbert Gottfried got up last, told a crazy-funny, long joke about sex with Joan. By the time he got to the end the entire dais gave him a standing O. Great stuff.

    • GPLDAN

      Don’t ingest too much tryptophan this Thursday. It’d be a shame if you weren’t conscious to share all your gleaming insight.

      • BillW

        ZZZZZzzzz….

  • GPLDAN

    Anybody else get sense from Jay Cutler pressers & interviews that he doesn’t particularly like this offense? Am I reading into his tone?

    I’m not quite sure how that would be possible, given that he essentially hand picked his own head coach.

    • BerwynBomber

      Agreed. And the Cutty clashes with Bears OC (plug in the name) storyline has passed its expiration date. Cutty just needs to concentrate on doing his job.

      • CanadaBear

        At some point you can only enable someone so much. After that, they either have to fish or cut bait.

      • Huge Bear’s Penis

        agree on Cutty needing to concentrate on doing his job and the storyline is getting old. but do you blame him for clashing with any of the past Bears OC’s. i honestly thought a couple of them wanted to get JC killed with the play calls with that awful line.

        • BerwynBomber

          I actually thought Martz was doing a decent job here but he and Cutty clashed because Martz restricted his audibles. In retrospect, I think Martz may have been on the right side of that debate. (Cutty’s audibles have apparently been problematic this year at least.)

          Also Martz was the loudest voice in the room against keeping Caleb Hanie.

          • CanadaBear

            I think he hated Martz more due to the fact he was a punching bag back there with that OL and Martz just kept calling for 7-step drops.

          • It was an odd couple, wasn’t it?
            Martz was correct in not allowing Jay to audible, and def on hating Hanie. The O was also clicking before Cutler went down.
            Cutler was correct in not wanting to take 7 step drops in an antiquated offense, getting murdered in the meanwhile.
            It was like an arrogant force running into an immovable prick.

          • BerwynBomber

            Martz was one of those man-against-the-people guys; his reputation as an asshole preceded him. Plus, many thought he blew it at St. Louis in losing to NE and that his system was outdated by the time he got here. Thing is, his system might have been outdated but, as you admitted, the O was humming before Cutty injured his thumb.

            I remember being on an early version of this blog and people were high-fiving each other because Cutler had told Martz to F off and simultaneously they were clamoring for Tice as OC. Both those reactions struck me as nuts then as they do now.

            Anyway, past history but I’m tired of the Jay-just-needs-another-OC storyline, thought I suppose if they offered Shanahan a 2 year contract for the remainder of Cutler’s contract there could worse moves.

          • Huge Bear’s Penis

            hmmm. that was probably part of the answer. My guess is all the seven step drops that left Cutler beaten like a rag doll behind the most horrid line in history.

    • Ever get the sense that Cutler doesn’t particularly like anything…

    • DaBearsBlog

      I’ve never heard him use these press conferences to nudge play calling in a particular drinking.

      • CanadaBear

        I think you got spell checked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • “Though some don’t want to hear it, the best case scenario for the Chicago Bears is this coach being the right coach, this general manager being the right general manager and this quarterback being the right
    quarterback.” – Jeff

    This assumes A LOT.

    1. That this QB is the right one. I personally no longer believe he is.
    I won’t go into why as I’ve already have, but before this season I still held hope he would be. That delusion is over. So, I DID want us to lose before the Minny game in order to have a shot at a new franchise QB to mold behind Cutler. That’s over too now.

    Barely eeking out wins over the vaunted Vikes and Bucs has all but taken us out of Mariotta territory. Or top 3 pass rusher territory too (in all likelihood). So, fuck it now. Though come April/May, something tells both the Bucs and Vikings are going to draft players right before us, and we’re all going to collectively groan, but I’m sure these November wins will carry over, right?

    2. As NB said, pretty sure a top 5 pick is MUCH more preferable to a 15ish pick.
    But again, we’re practically out of that tier, so, whatevs. On top of the general talent at certain positions (ESPECIALLY QB and pass rush, which we SEVERELY need to actually not get slaughtered by Rodgers and Brady), we could have used a higher pick to trade down and get a quality MLB AND S, and other positions on defense.

    3. If Emery indeed sux (which I don’t think he does), it won’t matter if we have the 1st pick or the 32nd.
    But I still think he is the right GM, and that a “correct” pick at #5 would be better than a “correct” pick at #15.
    Again, if Emery felt the players were about the same in this draft from #5-15, then he can trade down.
    Win/Win. We either get a truly dominant QB/Pass-rusher, or we build much needed depth and youth.

    4. I do NOT believe that Tresty is the right HC for us.
    One can make an argument that Tucker has actually OUT COACHED Trestman. Let that sink in. So these “wins” could save his job and extend his tenure, which would be worse than dropping in the draft. MUCH worse.

    However, these “victories” over the great Vikings and Bucs have all but taken us out of that contention.
    Don’t get me wrong, on game day I become a goon too, so I was cheering for the Bears, though the whole time my little logical voice was groaning inside.

    It’s an odd experience, one that as a fan I’ve never experience before, and which is hard to reconcile. I feel like I need B-marsh’s sport’s shrink to balance the conflicting desires to see the Bears win in both the short AND long term.

    • he’s saying it’s best for the Bears if those 3 things are true. He’s not saying they’re true. Big difference.
      If a team in fact has the right GM, HC, and QB, they are set for the foreseeable future.

      • I know, but that’s “wishful thinking’.
        Of course I want Cutler to be Sid Luckaman, for Trestman to be Ditka or for Emery to be Halas, but I don’t see 2 out of 3 of those, and as such, it’s not irrational to want an outcome that would net the Bears a new QB and HC.

        But sports aren’t about rationality and logic. So.

        Go Bears (?)

        • SC Dave

          Not Ditka. No way.

      • BillW

        If my grandmother had balls she’d be my grandfather.

        He’s not saying those three things are true. So if they AREN’T true, isn’t winning and finishing say 9-7 or even 8-8 a BAD thing – since that will likely save Trestman’s job?

        Fans don’t want them to lose. They want them to get a good coach. And fans are worried that management – in an effort to prove themselves right – will give Trestman a chance he probably doesn’t deserve. So they concisely express that concern (in 140 characters) by saying they hope they lose.

    • Bears’ fans aren’t alone. I found this gem on a MNF thread. Sounds familiar?

      “i love the saints, but jesus christ i almost want them to keep losing, forget theh playoffs let someone else get embarrassed….

      our secondary is terrible, nothing but injuries and guys who cant tackle, we have no linebackers …i havent seen any this whole season ….i mean lmao im done, im just done …..were better off just getting
      some good picks in the draft …”

  • TheBigCheesy
    • GPLDAN
      • TheBigCheesy

        To paraphrase the infamous beninnorcal:

        “You have to lose 6 games to go 10-6”

        • beninnorcal

          Infamous? Ok.
          To paraphrase our bilious buddy big cheesy:

          “You have to go on blogs of crappy teams to make yourself feel better about your sad self. A lot, like every fucking day.”

          • BillW

            I like Cheesy. He makes me feel good about being a Bears fan.

          • TheBigCheesy

            *Just one team. Just one, stinky, smelly, crappy team.

    • Predictolater calculating…calculating..calculating.
      Confirmed. Beep.
      TheBigCheesy is an asshole (97.547% probability).

  • “Prove that the number 8 selection in the NFL Draft has more success historically than the number 18 selection.”

    I felt like this was a personal challenge (though I do not advocate intentionally losing). There has been research done about value of various draft slots by people a lot smarter than me. Here you go:

    https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527

    Pretty sure I’ve read somewhere that, historically, the top 2-3 picks have one value grouping, then the next 10 or so, then the next 30, then the next 60ish, then the rest are pretty similar. But I can’t find that, and that doesn’t really agree with this data.

    • That is why you are – DATA.

      • if I was really that good I’d do my own legwork to come up with this solution.

        • BillW

          I’m sure you’re that good – just need time, data, computing power, a few stats guys. Hmmm…

          • I mostly stick to very simple statistical measures in the grand scheme of things. No stats background beyond a basic stats class in college.

            I just happen to like working with numbers.

          • BillW

            Not much more too it. Well, easy for me to say. A lot of it is more complex modelling that requires tools or techniques studied later. But nearly everything is built off of means, SDs, correlations, and linear regression.

          • It’s definitely good enough for the vast majority of football-related data crunching.

            some of it is definitely more complex. I was involved in a project a few years back where a guy did something called principal components analysis that went way over my head. Basically, he looked at every major statistic we could get our hands on for every team in the last decade to try and figure out what statistics had the greatest impact on winning. It was fascinating stuff that I could have never done in a million years. (http://nerdlyfootball.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/how-do-teams-win-a-biometric-approach/)

            Our goal was to have an algorithm that would let you beat the gambling spreads, and it showed some potential, but our first attempt didn’t quite pan out and nobody stuck around to try and revamp it.

          • BillW

            Well, gambling is a whole different thing. You’re trying to find out what no one else knows, but eventually it’s known and you have to keep looking. Plus a lot is spurious – coincidence. As soon as you start betting with it, it changes (if it was ever real in the first place).

            But some type of factor analysis to simple winning / losing is valuable. Too many variables go into the final score itself.

          • “The words of a dead man
            Are modified in the guts of the living” – Auden

            I would like to think that stats also must be modified in the guts of the living. It’s like life. Fact, truths, matter, energy…

        • If you came up with a solution, you would be hired as a GM by every NFL team.

          But I like that you at least try to put hard numbers to claims like “No difference between #5 and #15.” I know everyone dismisses stats, but numbers do provide SOME insight.

          It’s up to us humans to decide which stats matter and which don’t.

          I think that’s why I like playing FF. It makes one a mini-gm.

          For instance, I had a decision this week on Defense. I DIDN’T go with the ESPN/RotoWorld “top” defenses, all backed up by #s, stats, forecasts.

          I used them, decided, “Nah.” and went with my gut. That was the difference.

          Just ask NB!

          Bwhaha

          • I’m usually pretty good at fantasy, but had a rough year this year. Loved my team coming out of the draft, but had Rashad Jennings and Gio Bernard get hurt while McCoy underperformed for most of the year.

            Despite all that, I put up 4th most points in the league, yet I sit in 10th of 12 teams and won’t be in the playoffs because I’m averaging 10 points per week more scored against me than the 2nd unluckiest person.

            RAGE!!!

          • Much like in the draft, just have to keep an eye on the wire and guess CORRECTLY to fill those injuries, though luck definitely has some input into it. But as I stated before, it has much more to do with skill. Skill minimizes chance.

            That is why I’m all but guaranteed to go the championship playoffs for the 3rd-4rth year running. I’m 2nd in the league in scoring, though I beat Shady (1st in the league in scoring). I’m just steady eddie. Chugging along like the Pats at 9-3.

            Choo-Choo

          • I did pretty well filling in. Had Lamar Miller too, so RB was never really a problem, per se. Just terrible luck with people consistently having big weeks against me. In fantasy there’s nothing you can do about that.

            I remember being in a league with this one guy a few years ago who I felt so bad for. He had the most points in the league by a mile, but missed the playoffs by one spot because he literally had like 25% more points scored against him than anybody else. I think we counted 7 or 8 times in 13 regular season weeks that somebody had their best week of the season against him.

          • I agree. But I’ll make Shady my case in point.
            He has the most points against him too, but he made certain moves like picking up Mike Evans on the waiver, which has greatly countered the points against him.

            I know there’s a lot of variables, and luck (for instance, if someone gets hurt during the game and gives you a big fat zero), but I think overall, good teams will out.

            Same thing happend to me last year in Yahoo. I killed everyone, lost only once. But come finals, I knew I was going to lose even before the matches. Just saw the match-ups, and knew, I wasn’t going to win. The other guy simply had much better match-ups, not players.

            Can’t do anything really about that since no one can really predict which defense will be good or not at the end of the season. Sometimes, that’s just the way it goes.

          • on the plus side, I’m running my wife’s team for her in an all girls’ league. Killed the draft, and they keep dropping good players. My team currently is
            QB: Big Ben, Cutler
            RB: L. Bell, Jennings, McCoy
            WR: D. Thomas, Brown, Benjamin, Watkins, Hopkins, White
            TE: Gates, Donnell
            DST: Lions, 49ers

            In the past 6 weeks I’ve picked up Gates (#3 TE), Ben (#4 QB), Benjamin (#8 WR), Watkins (#16 WR), and Hopkins (#18 WR) for free off waivers (with the last spot because I’m first in the league). These people are clueless, which takes some (but not all) of the fun out of kicking their ass.

    • BillW

      Didn’t read the link – but I thought Jimmy Johnson or someone had a scale set up so he could evaluate draft day trades analytically.

      • yes. These articles show why that was just an arbitrary scale. They use a more math-based approach to come up with more accurate values based on Pro Football Reference’s player grading system, and find that Jimmy Johnson’s scale overvalued high picks and undervalued mid-round picks.

        • BillW

          Love it. I will read later.

  • BTW, I did similar studies to that on a much smaller scale.

    In this one, I looked at Pro Bowlers (http://dabearsbeat.com/2014/02/14/where-were-impact-players-drafted-pro-bowl/ ) and top graded players from PFF (http://dabearsbeat.com/2014/02/17/where-were-impact-players-drafted-profootballfocus/ ) last year at every position to see where they were drafted.

    In this one, I looked specifically at top 10 picks from the last 10 drafts to see how many were busts, based on 2 different criteria (starting for 5+ seasons, making the Pro Bowl). http://dabearsbeat.com/2014/05/08/bust-never-rhymes/

    These support Jeff’s point that high draft picks don’t guarantee anything. The draft is a crapshoot. But the higher your picks, the better your odds. Of course, you could still draft in the top 5 every year for a long time and draft like shit (like Detroit did when they were really bad from 2003-2007 or so).

  • BillW

    I thought today was going to be a busy day but still waiting for data that is due to me.

    So I dug out my old simulation. I ran 10,000 simulations of a hundred year period. Each of the 32 teams had an equal chance to win the SB in each of those years. Here’s what happened.

    NONE of the 10,000 simulations had every team winning at least once. That is, in all 10,000 simulations, there was at least one team that still hadn’t won.

    In 72% of them, 2 or more teams had not won a Super Bowl.

    In 34%, 3 or more teams had not won.

    In 10%, 4 or more teams had not won.

    It’s not random, but even if it is, there is a 34% chance that at least 3 teams will have not won a SuperBowl by it’s hundredth game. Well, not literally true given conditional probability.

    But for all the fans who are say about 7 years old and never saw their team win one, or won’t much remember it when they get older – there will be fans of several teams who will never see it even if they live to over 100.

    • yeah, that’s like the birthday thing. On average, should take 365 people in a room to say you should have 2 people who share a birthday, right? But the actual number is closer to 20-25, for reasons I never fully understood.

      If you flip a coin 100 times, the odds of getting 50/50 split on heads/tails are very low.

      This would be the equivalent of rolling a 32-sided die 100 times. You’re likely not rolling all the numbers within that 100. Chance is weird like that.

      • BillW

        Damn Excel pivot table. I got a sum instead of a count.

        New numbers:
        23% of the time, all the teams won at least once.
        77%, 1 or more did not
        40% – two or more
        14% – 3 or more.

        Same point but not as dramatic.

        I use the coin flip thing to teach confidence intervals. Saying uncertainty is very common in real life. And that they wouldn’t expect me to get the expected value of heads in 100 flips. They’d be amazed because as I got closer to the 100th, there would be a small number of possible outcomes to make it happen.

        • SC Dave

          That sounds a little more like it using 10000 iterations.

  • GPLDAN

    Data –

    You are a Mac guy, right? I thought you said that once.

    Get StatsPlus for the Mac. It’s $130 for an academic version, you just attest you aren’t using it in a commercial endeavor. Since you don’t charge for your blog, that’s true.

    http://www.analystsoft.com/en/products/statplusmac/buy.phtml

    It’s the best tool to help you ease into more properly quantitative approaches to problems. To evaluate the efficacy of draft choices, you would need to tabulate the career stats of every first rounder drafted over the last 30 years. It’s not as hard as it sounds. Tackles, passing %, everything.

    You would then do a multivariate analysis to come up with a kind of basic power score. Then see if your chart showed any sort of laddering by draft position.

    • johnnywad

      They said there would be no math.

      • BillW

        The math is the only reason GPLDAN and I get along. I really have trouble remember who is who personality /opinion wise. I knew there was something about him that matched up with me.

        • johnnywad

          You’ve both disliked Trestman longer than anybody else on the board.

      • Funny. My Stats professor used to be defensive about it.
        Apparently, other math professors don’t consider stats to be “real math.”
        So, they treated stat guys like the retarded cousin at the Thanksgiving table, or like a dentist at a surgeon’s convention.

        Doc, any insight into this?

        • johnnywad

          I was an accomplished math student in my day. Honors Calc in high school and so forth. Now I struggle to help my kids through their Algebra II.

          I think its too many years of tasty IPA’s and binge drinking Busch Light in college before that. Or maybe it stems from 20 years of not needing anything more advanced than Ď€D or the Pythagorean Theorem in my daily life.

          Either way, I have Google. So who gives a shit?

          • SC Dave

            I resemble that remark. I was decent at it too, although I knew I was done in Calculus III at Univ. of Illinois. Figuring out the limits of integration on the middle term of a triple integral was simply too much for me.

            Not that it mattered. I was in Computer Science, not Mathematics or Physics. I don’t think anyone else gives a shit about that stuff.

          • johnnywad

            I’ll go you one more. I would guess the vast majority of the population doesn’t even know such things exist.

          • Cormonster

            I resemble this remark. Hell, I can one up you maybe. I was on the math team in school. It was a great way to get out of classes is how I looked at it. Now all I use is geometry, trig, and some basic statistics.

            The stats is used mainly to analyze football to a degree and debunk news articles relating to politicians or “scientific studies” that are slanted to push an agenda.

          • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

            Can’t be that. I’ve smoked weed every day for 20 years, including while in college and grad school. I did just fine.

        • BillW

          Here’s how I say it in class. Statistics is a science that tries to quantify uncertainty. It’s VERY different than say Algebra. In Algebra we can solve for x in quadratic equations with precision. In statistics too much precision is foolish becuase we are dealing with estimates.

          Think of the terms that are used. My favorite is Standard Deviation. Standard means regular. Deviation implies irregularity. So an SD measures the regular amount of irregularity.

          I am completely comfortable with that. Which explain a lot about me!

          • Yeah, I’m sure it’s all a good ribbing. It’s like in “The Big Bang” where Sheldon the hot shot theoretical physicists always puts down Wolowitz for being “merely” an engineer.

          • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

            A mathematician, a physicist, and an engineer walk into a room and find a fire in the trash can. the physicist builds a vaccum to put out the fire. but it starts back up again. The engineer then builds a contraption to dump water on the fire. But it starts back up again. They look at the mathematician who says, “don’t look at me, I can prove that the fire can be put out, but I can’t actually do it”.

        • DocNitty(BallsStillOrnamental)

          You are correct. Stats is not real math. But then, mathematicians are elitist, so take a grain of salt. Case in point, most major universities have a math department and a stats department. Two totally different animals. A statistician uses math in the same way physicist uses math as his primary tool. But physics isn’t math. Same thing. I am a bit ashamed to say this, but I have a PhD in math and I’ve never taken a single stats class. Doesn’t interest me in the slightest. Probability is Math. Stats is not.

    • I use some Mac and some Windows. I use a program called SigmaPlot at work that can do anything too complicated for Excel, so I use that when need be.

      THere are hundreds of draft picks every year. I’m not gonna bother compiling statistics for every one of them for years and years. Other people have done that work.

      • BillW

        I’d be curious as to say the top three picks over the past 20 years or so.

        Bradys are unpredictable. One would expect a top three to be a long time starter and decent chance at pro bowl – all pro. So looking overall sets a “norm” and then we can quantify how bad Angelo really was.

        • top threes as in top 3 of the draft or top 3 rounds?

          • GPLDAN

            That’s insane.

            Your postulation is that WITHIN the first round, there is laddering of results. That once past say, pick #10, it doesn’t matter if you have pick #11 or pick #22. You have totally equal chance of getting a player who produces.

            This has long been a held opinion, it would be actually useful – and drive traffic to your site – if you properly analyzed that hypothesis.

            May want to be sure Nate Silver and his krew haven’t been there first.

            http://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/

          • when do I ever say that? I actually said the exact opposite below based on the data in the articles I linked to.

          • GPLDAN

            You don’t. I was saying Bill’s suggestion was insane to take the first three rounds. Totally useless suggestion he had there.

          • BillW

            I did mean the first three rounds of every draft, not first three players. Top three picks of every team. I type worse than I read.

            That’s only to limit the data to something workable. The selections presumably would be the same if there were only 3 rounds or 300. (Except for trading lower picks etc.)

            After that you could see if there is a significant difference in prob of success by round or even groupings within rounds. Intuitively there is. But would be interesting to know if somewhere the correlation starts to fall apart. That it truly becomes a crap shoot.

            The first problem is defining success. Is Shea a success if he continues to start the next several years? Do you have to make a pro bowl to be a success? Very subjective.

          • GPLDAN

            Nevermind, that was stupid. Elo is calculated by using a log base x approach to score differentials. You can’t determine a player Elo rating, only a team.

  • BearDown100393

    Hypothetical scenario – If Phil Emery possessed the #1 in the upcoming draft, does he pick the “best player available” (and who would that be?) or does he “fill a need” (and what need would that be?)

    • It is purely hypothetical, and given entering Emery’s draft intentions is like “Being Jon Malkavich”, no one would truly know. However, I would guess these in order possibility.

      1. Draft Mariotta.
      2. Draft a stud DT/DE, from most accounts, that dude from USC.
      3. Trade down to gather a shit load of pics, a la Rams with RG3.
      4. Draft an OT cuz he’s Phil Emery.

      • GPLDAN

        Or… pick a guy slated for the 2nd round first overall, just to show the world you are smarter than they are…

        • That’s the OT!
          Great motor! phenomenal vertical! and he’s white from a small college!

          • GPLDAN

            Good character. Nice clean cut kid.

          • Just jumped off tape, JR high tape. Multi-sport kid. Curling, Javelin, and bowling. Just all around athlete.

          • GPLDAN

            Can totally play 4 positions on the field. And that’s critical to the Bears stratergy.

          • Mother won the Coney Island hot-dog eating contest 4 years in a row in the 80s, so good solid pedigree.

    • BillW

      I don’t follow college football much. Are there any pool jumpers coming out this year?

  • Shady

    I think my biggest issue with this “Thanksgiving in Detroit” blog post is the use of a Griswold CHRISTMAS Vacation photo.

    • DaBearsBlog

      But it’s the Thanksgiving dinner scene.

      • BillW

        Pretty sure it was Christmas.

        Wait – sorry! I disagreed with Jeff again! Here comes Sister Mary Elephant!!

      • Shady

        Classic.

  • Sactowns#1

    If I dont get a chance to log in again before the celebration for the big bird, Happy Thanksgiving everyone! You motley crew of misfits help me make it through many a boring day at work and the occasional brutal Bears season. I’m thankful for each and every one of you, except for the cheese wanker.

    • CanadaBear

      Back atcha Sac!

    • BillW

      Same here!

  • Huge Bear’s Penis

    fyi – new thread

© Da' Bears Blog